Definitely a shift north this morning, if that trend continues then no wintry weather for anyone. Let's hope it doesn't.
But GFS is brilliant for here, it also is towards the top of the ensembles for here up until the 25th, albeit within a significant cluster. Mean would suggest more fun further south than the Op. 

What was it Steve said yesterday about a deck of cards?

Meanwhile GEM looks like having none of this blocking nonsense and delivers most of the UK mild, wet and windy fayre from mid week.

Cross model disagreement, lurching scenarios from Beast from East to balmy southerlies run to run, more activity on Two than in the Pre-Christmas high streets: must be some cold weather on the way: At the moment - that is about as good a barometer for the weather past Sunday as the models can get a handle on.

  Sums up my emotional rollercoaster as this one pans out - or goes down the pan.

I've learned lessons not to get hung up on the models any more. What will be will be, but in the dark days of raging Zonality circa 2016, we would have longed for what we are seeing right now.

Its ensemble set are in keeping with the rest of this morning’s main models.

I agree Joe! I'm in Nottingham for Christmas but should do OK there too!

ECM looking ok this morning. Particularly long term.
It’s all about the track if that Atlantic low barrelling in on 23rd. The 00z has it moving into France, better for the south but any more corrections northward and it’s a rain fest nearly everywhere. 

Yup - it is safe to say - the further north and east you live the more likely you are to see something special as the battle of the air masses matches Game of Thrones. 

The other wild card place for unexpected massive snowfall is often Shropshire down to Cardiff - a common battleground precipitating historic major dumps. 

For me. - only a true Beasterly easterly will do - a la 1947 or 1979, but march 2018 wasn’t bad either.

This is of course not necessary if the trough pushes right along the Channel in which case everything’s fine 😂😂😂

Easterly muck. 

I’m half tempted to change all my Christmas plans and go to my mums in Derbyshire!

I was being very tongue in cheek. I need to be otherwise Michael might virtually slap me 😷😊

There's no point in a daily review ATM - it changes every six hours or so!

WX summary from yesterday morning, a more or less conventional winter Atlantic outlook, to last night with cold air flooding eastward across France and not quite including UK, to this morning with most of Europe (exc Alps) with normal Dec temps but very cold over Scandi and the latter reaching down into Britain. Rain/pptn over UK for week 1 yesterday now back to the Atlantic (but with an interesting branch up the Channel) and in week 2 swinging S of UK to affect most of continental Europe.

BBC Meteo Group from a 'brief' cold spell Wed pm to prolonged cold last night

Jet very weak until about Wed 22nd then some strong pulses running S of UK for a week or with loops to follow.

GFS op - follows yesterday's forecast for a week with current HP over UK declining to an Iceland-Greece ridge but then unlike yesterday a cold flood from NE with the fabled Channel Low 975 mb on Christmas Day itself. The cold feed is cut off and replaced by HP about Thu 30th but may resume as a conventional easterly with HP over Scandi Sun 2nd

GEFS - temps descend jerkily to norm by Thu 23rd then a prolonged spell with mean significantly below norm - however ens members do not agree and to underline this point op and control have switched positions since yesterday, the  former now cold and the latter mild. Pptn starts around Thu 23rd and significant amount in most runs thereafter esp around 26th. Snow row figures widely in teens around Boxing Day.

ECM - similar to GFS though the Channel Low is located in the SW approaches, and followed by a colder N-ly which however fades as it gets towards S Britain

GEM - after agreement for Christmas Day, lets the LP fill and move N with cold NW-lies for the UK

I see jam tomorrow is back on the menu😀

Looking likely a messy style late 81 affair....that was dominated by a weak Greenland affair but it delivered....

Despite being rinsed last night for suggesting a northward trend developing in the modelled LP, this is now looking the likely outcome.

For what it’s worth, Beeb update in the last hour goes for turning ‘cooler’ next week with 7 degrees and heavy rain in the south over and after Christmas. All subject to change of course.

Indeed. Despite the dampening mood caused by a small correction in the angle of attack of the trough, I’d much rather have the general synoptic in the first place and watch the detail unfold than the usual dross we’ve had to endure for years. You can be pretty much certain the detail will change in the next few days counting down to +96 and beyond. The strength of the GH block, the vector of the disrupting trough, the phasing of said trough with the Euro low already in situ, the strength of CAA from the east - and so it goes on. No model is going to get this right until pretty much zero hour. Couple that with the perception that sliders often correct south close to arrival and it’s all to play for for all of the country. 

That’s if it happens at all of course 😉

ECM ensembles have delayed the cold in the South until Boxing Day/27th now. It's still all very uncertain but it's nice to be in the game at least.