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doctormog
25 November 2021 17:19:38

There is a nice discussion of Storm Arwen from the Met Office here: 


https://youtu.be/Mwf48aCZgXE 


Ally Pally Snowman
25 November 2021 17:39:15

Looks a nasty one alright.  Some sort of coastal surge would seem likely I'd imagine aswell.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
25 November 2021 17:43:11


Looks a nasty one alright.  Some sort of coastal surge would seem likely I'd imagine aswell.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I think that’s possible but thankfully the tides are in a “helpful” phase to prevent the worst of the coastal flooding.


Roger Parsons
25 November 2021 18:20:51


I think that’s possible but thankfully the tides are in a “helpful” phase to prevent the worst of the coastal flooding.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I was reflecting that if the timing had coincided with our recent lunar near-eclipse they might have needed the Boston tidal barrier!


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
johncs2016
25 November 2021 18:21:47


 


I think that’s possible but thankfully the tides are in a “helpful” phase to prevent the worst of the coastal flooding.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes, the tides are mostly controlled by the Moon's gravitational pull, and also to a lesser extent by the Sun. This results in the highest tides occuring when the Sun and Moon along with the Earth form a straight line and that happens whenever we have either a Full Moon or a New Moon since the Sun and Moon and pulling together on the Earth's surface at those times, causing those forces to add up.


Those are known as spring tides, although that term has nothing to do with the season which is known as spring and comes from how much quicker the tides goes in and out at those time. The distance between the Earth and the Moon also affects things, so spring tides are even higher still if the Moon is relatively close to the Earth when we get a spring tide, due to the Moon's gravitional pull being that much stronger.


In a way, we are lucky because if this upcoming weather setup had occured about a week later than when it is actually happening, this would have concided with the New Moon which is coming up on 4 December 2021. That will be a super New Moon with the Moon being relatively close to us, and that is when we tend to get the highest spring tides of the entire year.


This means that if we had this type of weather coming up then, there would have been some real concerns about the possibilities of coastal flooding from that as a result.


However, the Moon will be at its Last Quarter on Saturday 27 November 2021 and when the Moon is at it First or Last Quarter (i.e. when it appears in the sky from here as a semi-circle with exactly half of its visible disk lit up), the gravititational pull of the Moon is always at its minimum due to the Sun and Moon being at right angles to the Earth and therefore, pulling against each other rather. which then has the effect of causing each of those forces to partially cancel the other one out.


Those tides are known as neap tides and although wave overtopping can' never be ruled out even with that, this means that the risk of that happening is kept to a minimum. Since that will be the situation when we see the worst effects from Storm Arwen, that is why the tides will actually be in a "helpful" state for that.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Heavy Weather 2013
25 November 2021 21:08:47
The latest UKV is out.

https://twitter.com/tayside_fifewx/status/1463972977083572229?s=21 

This is likely to be historic. Red warnings incoming I suspect.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
25 November 2021 22:52:49
Looking through other high res models suggest the event in the NE and in Scotland tomorrow will be very destructive.

Stay safe - the wind direction, combined with the strength will likely mean lots and lots of trees down.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
25 November 2021 23:10:11

Looking through other high res models suggest the event in the NE and in Scotland tomorrow will be very destructive.

 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


NW Wales as well. Anglesey and Lleyn are smack in the line of the western blast. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
scillydave
26 November 2021 07:08:46
Starting to look like this might be a really dangerous and destructive storm for the North East Coast with Northumberland in particular bearing the brunt of the strong winds.
On the (albeit not entirely reliable) met office weather app the mean wind speed touches over 60mph for places like Berwick-upon-Tweed with gusts to 85mph.
The charts suggest a short period of even higher gusts with speeds just topping 100mph.
The wind direction is an unusual one - we don't have winds of this strength from the north as frequently as we do from the West and so that will add to damage caused. The only saving grace is that the peak winds hit at mid tide on the neaps.

Fingers crossed for a last minute moderation but I fear this will be in the news lots by Sunday morning.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 November 2021 07:39:22

And away from the coasts, most of the leaves are off (oaks excepted around here), so not too much in the way of fallen trees


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
scillydave
26 November 2021 08:02:45


And away from the coasts, most of the leaves are off (oaks excepted around here), so not too much in the way of fallen trees


Originally Posted by: DEW 


 


Yes, hopefully so.  I think the direction of the wind will cause issues though - there'll be more tree damage than there would be for a SW wind of similar strength. 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Saint Snow
26 November 2021 08:44:58

Just spent half an hour tethering down anything loose in the garden




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
26 November 2021 08:52:40


Just spent half an hour tethering down anything loose in the garden



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Me too, Saint - no flying chairs wanted! Yesterday's gusts was stripping off a lot of the remaining leaves.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Heavy Weather 2013
26 November 2021 08:56:32

Surely we will see a red warning. If this isn’t a candidate for one I don’t know what is?


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Russwirral
26 November 2021 09:20:30
When those showers arrive they really come with some clout. Wind almost disappears completely when there's no showers though


Rob K
26 November 2021 09:23:27
Still very calm down this end of the country. Looks like thee strongest winds will be through tomorrow afternoon and evening down here. Meant to be going to the local Christmas market tomorrow. Wind chill of -8C expected...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
MRayner
26 November 2021 09:32:24

Looking at those charts could we be looking at a possible sting jet event ? Not looking forward to later today 🥺


Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
scillydave
26 November 2021 10:43:05
First warnings out for snow for the southern part of the country. Birdlip will do well if the precipitation edges slightly west.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Gavin D
26 November 2021 10:43:05
Russwirral
26 November 2021 10:47:12
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