This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during October, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for October should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.    

Historic CET summary for October

1981-2010 (30 years) 10.69C

1991-2020 (30 years) 10.92C 

2001-2020 (last 20 years) 11.17C  

The last three October's have all been slightly below average at 10.5C, 10.0C and 10.6C. Prior to that we had a run of very warm Octobers.

Here is a chart of the October CET for all years since 1961    

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output     

GEFS - 850's look very close to average throughout, albeit with a lot of scatter 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) looks similar with temperatures close to average

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v2-secure.pdf

Main focus is on high pressure located close to the UK in October (not at the moment though!). This could lead to frost, fog etc. which could result in lower temperatures even if 850s are average.

Mer Office Hadley      13.3c      Anomaly     1.0c provisional to 1st

Metcheck                   11.65c    Anomaly      1.4c

Netweather                13.41c    Anomaly      3.08c

Peasedown St John   11.8c      Anomaly     0.73c

Just sticiked it for you.

Met Office Hadley      11.9c      Anomaly      -0.4c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                   11.18c    Anomaly      0.67c

Netweather                12.28c    Anomaly      1.89c

Peasedown St John   10.68c    Anomaly     0.23c.  

Looks like it will turn much milder from later on this week. By the middle of the month the CET could be trending about 1C above the 1981-2010 mean

Chart 1

Chart 2

Looks like it will turn much milder from later on this week. By the middle of the month the CET could be trending about 1C above the 1981-2010 mean

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Just pointing out Simon - Can you alter the date to October 2021. Just noticed it.

 

Just pointing out Simon - Can you alter the date to October 2021. Just noticed it.

Done

Here are the predictions for October. Most people going above average

Link to full size table

I was away this weekend and missed getting my entry in time.

I've missed two now meaning I'm out of this years competition.

I don't think I had much a chance of winning this year anyway. 

Good luck you guys and gals. May the best player win.

 

Done

Well done.

Met Office Hadley       11.6c      Anomaly    -0.6c provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                    11.20c   Anomaly     0.69c

Netweather                 12.07c   Anomaly     1.68c

Peasedown St  John   11.18c   Anomaly    0.52c.  

I was away this weekend and missed getting my entry in time.

I've missed two now meaning I'm out of this years competition.

I don't think I had much a chance of winning this year anyway. 

Good luck you guys and gals. May the best player win.

I think your punishment should be to have to take part in the comp for the rest of the year 

 

 

 

I think your punishment should be to have to take part in the comp for the rest of the year 

Agreed - I'd like to see a great Gusty comeback!

 Agreed - I'd like to see a great Gusty comeback!

Easy !

All you lot have to do for me for the remainder of the year is to predict the following CET's.

November - A CET somewhere between  -2c and -3c

December - A CET somewhere between -8c and -9c.

 

 

 

I think your punishment should be to have to take part in the comp for the rest of the year 

Agreed. Gusty is now in with a chance of being the holder of the record low and record high error. Quite a feat. 

 Agreed. Gusty is now in with a chance of being the holder of the record low and record high error. Quite a feat. 

Agreed. Gusty is now in with a chance of being the holder of the record low and record high error. Quite a feat. 

Surely this means he has a perfect average score?

 Surely this means he has a perfect average score?

Just leave it there at Perfect Roger

I was away this weekend and missed getting my entry in time.

I've missed two now meaning I'm out of this years competition.

I don't think I had much a chance of winning this year anyway. 

Good luck you guys and gals. May the best player win.

You are allowed to miss two entries and stay in. It is only a third missed entry that drops you out. So you can still take part for November and December and stay in the annual competition.

Starting to wonder if I should have waited for the October thread to open before sending my prediction - again we've seen a shift of model output past the end of the preceding month.

Back on 30th Sep the model runs were giving me mid-month CET estimates in the 10.3 to 11.0°C range, about 1.0 to 1.5°C below average.

Yesterday's GFS 06z came in at 11.9°C, about average, while today's 12z is way up at a balmy 13.0°C, about 1.2°C above the norm!

Still, I'm not actually too concerned at this stage. My near-average estimate hides a cool-warm-cool anticipated pattern for the month.

Can only wait to see if the cool final part actually happens, but in the meantime, with a lot of anticyclonic weather forecast including light winds, along with maritime airmasses bringing ample moisture, I'd not be surprised to see lingering fog keeping temperatures down in places by Sunday.

After all, GFS has a strange habit of keeping temperatures too high by night, then too low by day, which means it can fail to pick up on the inversions that support fog and, sometimes, lead to it having a high error on the day temps too.

It's a bit of a close call with a seriously warm regime, though - the high would only have to shift a few hundred miles southeast to put the CET region in a steady southwesterly flow with impressively high temps either by night or day, depending on cloud amounts.

So, I'm not resting easy, just not too concerned... at least for now .