Wx back to where it was 2 days ago "Wx summaries sow a bit of warmth in the SW week 1, in the SE week 2, but still underwhelming. Dry everywhere week 1, some rain in N Scotland week 2." though the rain.little as it is, may be a bit more widespread
Jet is up around Iceland at the moment but eventually approaches the UK Thu 9th and a strong W-E flow over Britain developing from Sat 11th
GFS op : HP in position over N Scotland until Fri 3rd when weakening and moving SE and replaced by shallow trough over UK Mon 6th. HP then steadily re-builds from the SW reaching max extent across all UK Fri 10th before retreating back to SW with zonal flow for that weekend. Deep depression 975mb Rockall Tue 14th with NW-lies for all.
GEFS : temps a little above seasonal norm with good agreement to Sun 5th. With increasing uncertainty (and anything could happen after Wed 9th) mean of runs continues a little above norm at first but with suggestion of cooling from Sun 12th. Mainly dry, small amounts of rain in some runs after Sun 5th (one or two runs have big rainfall spikes in S at the end of sequence).
ECM : general agreement with GFS, though the trough on Mon 6th is deeper and better defined
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl