Some straws tonight as both GEM and GFS build the Azores high very nicely over the UK by day 9/10.

 

Yup, but I've seen this all before this month. Some very tasty looking charts, sometimes even consistent over a few days but always at 10+ days out, near enough to be of interest but always too far away for any degree of confidence. Then they disappear completely and return again at 10 days. Rinse & repeat. This is liike the winter search for cold, forever chasing the end of the rainbow, always just out of reach....

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Yup, but I've seen this all before this month. Some very tasty looking charts, sometimes even consistent over a few days but always at 10+ days out, near enough to be of interest but always too far away for any degree of confidence. Then they disappear completely and return again at 10 days. Rinse & repeat. This is liike the winter search for cold, forever chasing the end of the rainbow, always just out of reach....

 

Indeed,  we need the high pressure to get in the 6 day range to have a chance.  The GFS run really is a beauty though. 

 

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Something has to budge soon. Yesterday’s GEFS were so linear, clustered and flat for so long you knew something had to give.

I think by the last week of May we’ll have very different weather to now. Whether that’s cataclysmic flooding, a return of unseasonably late frosts and snow flurries, or a suddenly record breaking heatwave I don’t know.

There is at one member of this evening’s GEFS set that promises to smash the May max temp record. P15. Modelled max of 30C on the ensemble line chart means a mid 30s actual max. At least 33C. There is another member (P20) that gives almost the whole country several days of frost, with some widespread hill snow. Various runs promise different locations a month’s worth of rain in a day.

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ECM also brings in the Azores high by day 9/10

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Something has to budge soon. Yesterday’s GEFS were so linear, clustered and flat for so long you knew something had to give.

I think by the last week of May we’ll have very different weather to now. Whether that’s cataclysmic flooding, a return of unseasonably late frosts and snow flurries, or a suddenly record breaking heatwave I don’t know.

There is at one member of this evening’s GEFS set that promises to smash the May max temp record. P15. Modelled max of 30C on the ensemble line chart means a mid 30s actual max. At least 33C. There is another member (P20) that gives almost the whole country several days of frost, with some widespread hill snow. Various runs promise different locations a month’s worth of rain in a day.

Something need to give sooner than later as it been nearly 2 months now since we had a normal Spring warm spell.  Now is down to 5 weeks left to the longest day and we lost so much of useable long daylight hours so far.

Strange amount of variability across the set for temperature tomorrow I don’t think I’ve seen that amount of variation so soon in time before.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=312&mode=0&carte=0

 

Something need to give sooner than later as it been nearly 2 months now since we had a normal Spring warm spell.  Now is down to 5 weeks left to the longest day and we lost so much of useable long daylight hours so far.

TWO grid points may be slightly different, but the first 30C of the season is safely in the bag tonight.

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Yup, but I've seen this all before this month. Some very tasty looking charts, sometimes even consistent over a few days but always at 10+ days out, near enough to be of interest but always too far away for any degree of confidence. Then they disappear completely and return again at 10 days. Rinse & repeat. This is liike the winter search for cold, forever chasing the end of the rainbow, always just out of reach....

Yes, you start feeling like you are wishing your life away at the moment. Waiting for the cold to arrive, waiting for the cold to go, waiting for the rain to come, waiting for the summer of course and all this while you are looking forward to the end of the lockdown. I'm too old to be wishing my life away!

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The worst thing about this spell of rather unseasonably cool and showeryness is the long hours of daylight 'going to waste'.
Not just our use of the time but plant growth too should be photosynthesising like mad - but here most trees are still barey opening leaves and silage/hay crops are only just starting to grow more normally when some years they'd be up to your knees with huge leaf area.

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The worst thing about this spell of rather unseasonably cool and showeryness is the long hours of daylight 'going to waste'.
Not just our use of the time but plant growth too should be photosynthesising like mad - but here most trees are still barey opening leaves and silage/hay crops are only just starting to grow more normally when some years they'd be up to your knees with huge leaf area.

I've always thought of May as being a hugely disappointing month for enjoying the long evenings. Usually too wet or cold to be sat (or sometimes even walking) outside. Last year was an exception with some beautiful warm, sunny evenings. 
I like to say that May is the month that you can see the poor weather for longer into the night!

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The worst thing about this spell of rather unseasonably cool and showeryness is the long hours of daylight 'going to waste'.
Not just our use of the time but plant growth too should be photosynthesising like mad - but here most trees are still barey opening leaves and silage/hay crops are only just starting to grow more normally when some years they'd be up to your knees with huge leaf area.

It is amazing how far behind plants are, not to mention those damaged by the intensity and frequency of the April frosts,. I'm no lover of extreme heat but a little warmth to go with the showers would be lovely 

Improvement still there on the GFS 0Z and to an extent GEM, and getting a little closer with the ridge looking to build in around 192-228 hrs. Still far to far into FI to be certain, but perhaps a growing trend.
As I look out on a flooded garden with nearly 24 hours persistent rain, we desperately need the rain to stop soon. We have been utterly deluged. Now up to 90mm so far in May, which is very wet indeed.

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Improvement still there on the GFS 0Z and to an extent GEM, and getting a little closer with the ridge looking to build in around 192-228 hrs. Still far to far into FI to be certain, but perhaps a growing trend.
As I look out on a flooded garden with nearly 24 hours persistent rain, we desperately need the rain to stop soon. We have been utterly deluged. Now up to 90mm so far in May, which is very wet indeed.

 

Very wet here also last 24 hrs but we need it in this part of the world as it was still very dry. Definitely some more straws this morning with the UKMO pushing the Azores our way as early as 144h.

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Very wet here also last 24 hrs but we need it in this part of the world as it was still very dry. Definitely some more straws this morning with the UKMO pushing the Azores our way as early as 144h.

ECM still looks very disturbed this morning with a deep low at 168hrs, then a potent northerly in its wake.

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ECM still looks very disturbed this morning with a deep low at 168hrs, then a potent northerly in its wake.

It gets there by 240h. Very cold run though.

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Jetstream runs consistently strongly jsut to the S of the UK until Fri 21st, when it begins to move N-wards, running across the UK strongly and directly until Wed 26th, before weakening and moving clear to the north (but threatening to return in the last frame Sun 30th)

16 dayer still shows a remarkable bulge of cool air into NW Europe for both weeks, with just a hint of something warmer moving up fromSpain in week 2. Wet for UK week 1, dry in week 2 with the rain band over N Europe week 1 breaking up and moving S-ward.

GFS - improved outlook (for those who want dry warm weather - some of us still really need rain, believe it or not), Uk still affected by troughs from the Atlantic though not as deep as previously and becoming a W-ly flow by Fri 21st; then HP moves in from SW and covers all UK 1030mb Tue 25th and staying around though pushed increasingly towards the S by LP in N Atlantic, notably on Sun 30th

GEFS - mean temp remains a degree or two below norm through to Thu 27th, then close to norm; the GFS op described above is one of 4 or 5 runs taking a more optimistic view from Sun 23rd but not enough to shift the mean upwards from the consensus (so still all to play for despite APS' view above). Most runs continue to show showery rain throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS, even agreeing on the HP at end of run Mon 24th, but shows it preceded by a N-ly burst absent from GFS; there is a hint of colder weather for a few days at this time in the GEFS for Scotland

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Improvement still there on the GFS 0Z and to an extent GEM, and getting a little closer with the ridge looking to build in around 192-228 hrs. Still far to far into FI to be certain, but perhaps a growing trend.
As I look out on a flooded garden with nearly 24 hours persistent rain, we desperately need the rain to stop soon. We have been utterly deluged. Now up to 90mm so far in May, which is very wet indeed.

It been very wet here too and need to see the rain stop and bring the warm to hot and prolonged dry weather we entitled for   Sooner than later the models need to wake up as we are heading to summer month by delivering us proper summery charts as we haven't see any of those since late March so well over due and hopefully a big make up time.  What happened to the all the heat in Feb down south disappeared?  Only Cyprus just getting normal temperatures of the time of the year.

As DEW says, GEFS overall is very different from the Ops run this morning, so still huge uncertainty for the end of May. There is general cross model agreement for it to remain cool and unsettled for the next week or so.

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There's been a signal for a warm up around 26/27 May for a while now. Whether it comes to fruition or not, who knows? But the signal is there.

One to watch.

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