The 16-dayer shows a continuing 'bulge' of below average temps S-wards over W Europe for the full two weeks even if the rain lets up a bit over the UK in week 2. Jetstream running over or a little to the S of the UK to Sun 9th. Next week a k loop from the N enfolds the UK before the pattern repeats - straight flow across or just S of UK from Sat 14th, another similar loop Fri 21st. The split into noorthern and southern streams avoiding the UK as shown a few days ago no longer features.
GFS - LP from Atlantic to SW Ireland 970mb Sun 9th throwing frontal rain across UK for the weekend, drifts NE and fills by Wed 12th, cold over UK, warm plume over E Baltic. Cold pool hangs around over SE England while something milder from the SW affects Scotland until Sat 15th when poorly defined LP brings cold air from Greenland towards UK, firming up Wed 19th 995mb SW Ireland, again drifting NE and filling but leaving cold pool over UK.
GEFS - Rain Sun 9th with burst of warmth for England, then cooler again for all and a bit drier in the S to Sat 15th. Considerable variation after that, suggestion of a little above norm temps and damp in N but below (esp op & control) in S where the focus of any rain is later on
ECM - agrees with GFS
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl