From that dodgy story

The white stuff could follow weeks of warm spring weather that has been enjoyed by millions as the lockdown lifts.

Really? I've experienced more frosts and day to day chill in April than I've ever seen in this part of the world.

 

Bullshxt as usual. Been unremittingly cool here. Record number of frosts

 From that dodgy story

The white stuff could follow weeks of warm spring weather that has been enjoyed by millions as the lockdown lifts.

Really? I've experienced more frosts and day to day chill in April than I've ever seen in this part of the world.

 

We have had far more frosts than usual here, but it's also been very warm (and sunny) by day for the past 2 weeks - even the 12th, when we woke to snow, ended a warm, sunny day!

---

Sunday 2 May - Tuesday 11 May

Showery conditions with temperatures well below average continuing into the start of this period. Each day, showers will develop fairly widely but most areas will also see some decent sunny spells. Nights will continue to be cold with some overnight frosts. Showers are likely to continue to fall as snow over high ground in the north. Into next week, a gradual transition to more unsettled conditions is likely though the timing and details of this transition is uncertain. This brings an increased likelihood of spells of more persistent rain and stronger winds at times. Temperatures are likely to remain below average overall though there are signs that they could recover back closer to average with a reduction in the extent of overnight frosts.

Monday 10 May - Monday 24 May

Confidence is very low for this outlook as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny/clear spells and showers, especially likely at first, but an increased chance of more unsettled weather with stronger winds and longer periods of rain arriving from the Atlantic compared to normal. Temperatures probably starting off cooler than average, but will most likely be around to above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 3 May - Wednesday 12 May

A transition to more unsettled conditions is likely at the start of this period, bringing an increased likelihood of persistent rain and stronger winds from Monday onwards, and temperatures are likely to stay below average at the start of this period. Showery conditions could well occur between these unsettled spells, with showers developing fairly widely most days, though many areas will see some sunny spells too. Showers are likely to fall as snow over high ground in the north. Nights will remain cold with some overnight frosts, though these becoming more restricted to the north. Temperatures are likely to remain below average overall though there are signs that they could recover back closer to average by the end of the period.

Wednesday 12 May - Wednesday 26 May

Confidence is very low for this outlook as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny/clear spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled conditions. In the north there is an increased chance of more unsettled weather, with stronger winds and longer periods of rain arriving from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures will most likely be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 4 May - Thursday 13 May

Unsettled conditions are likely at the start of this period, bringing an increased likelihood of periods of persistent rain and stronger winds, and temperatures are expected to be below average. Showery conditions could well occur between these unsettled spells, with showers developing fairly widely most days due to a cold northerly wind, though many areas will see some sunny spells too. Showers are likely to fall as snow over high ground in the north. Nights will remain cold with some overnight frosts, though these becoming more restricted to the north. Temperatures look to remain below average overall, with any milder spells being associated with rain and strong winds so not actually feeling overly warm. By the end of the period, there are slight signs that temperatures may recover.

Wednesday 12 May - Wednesday 26 May

Confidence is very low for this outlook as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny/clear spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled conditions. In the north there is an increased chance of more unsettled weather, with stronger winds and longer periods of rain arriving from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures will most likely be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Some provisional April weather info from @metoffice...

📉 Lowest average April minimum temps since 1922
🥶 Frostiest in 60 years
☀️ Sunniest April on record for Wales and Scotland
🥀 Set to be one of driest Aprils on record

Still one day of stats to add on to the above.

— Liam Dutton (@liamdutton) April 30, 2021

---

Thursday 6 May - Saturday 15 May

Unsettled conditions to start the period, especially in the south. Generally looking at sunny spells interspersed with showers across the UK. The showers may become longer spells of rain at times, and are expected to be wintry across Scottish hills. The best of the sunshine is expected in sheltered central spots. Often windy, with occasional gales possible in the far north/northeast. Temperatures colder than normal for most, especially in the north. Towards the end of the period, uncertainty increases, as is typical of spring. It is largely expected to remain unsettled, though spells of fine, dry weather will become possible, especially at the very end of the period. Temperatures likely to start trending higher, but it is unlikely to become unseasonably warm.

Friday 14 May - Friday 28 May

Confidence is very low for this outlook as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny/clear spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled conditions. In the north there is an increased chance of more unsettled weather, with stronger winds and longer periods of rain arriving from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures will most likely be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 7 May - Sunday 16 May

Unsettled conditions dominate with sunny spells and scattered showers, often wintry in the north over high ground, but many places staying dry on Friday. Cloud spreading from the southwest later, bringing outbreaks of heavy rain across most parts of the UK, into and through the weekend with strong winds. Perhaps remaining cold with showers across Scotland. Thereafter likely remaining unsettled with showers or spells of rain across the UK but gradually becoming drier from the west later with lighter winds. The best of any spells of fine and dry weather will likely be later in this period towards the south, interspersed with unsettled periods of showers and spells of rain from the northwest. Temperatures likely to be colder than normal for most, especially in the north but trending towards normal.

Saturday 15 May - Saturday 29 May

Confidence is very low for this outlook as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny/clear spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled conditions. In the north there is an increased chance of more unsettled weather, with stronger winds and longer periods of rain arriving from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures will most likely be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 8 May - Monday 17 May

Remaining unsettled with spells of rain, locally heavy, especially across western hills moving from the southwest on Saturday. Further spells of rain and strong winds moving across much of the UK into the new week, with some hill snow in the north. Temperatures returning to near average but often windy with the risk of coastal gales. There after likely remaining unsettled with showers or spells of rain moving across the UK but gradually becoming drier from the west later with lighter winds. The best of any spells of fine and dry weather will likely be later in this period towards the south, interspersed with unsettled periods of showers and spells of rain from the northwest. Temperatures likely to be colder than normal in north but trending towards normal in south.

Monday 17 May - Monday 31 May

Confidence is low for this outlook, as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled and dry conditions through this period. Towards the north there is an increased chance of unsettled weather as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures most likely to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 9 May - Tuesday 18 May

Remaining unsettled on Sunday with spells of rain or showers, locally heavy - especially across northern hills and in the far southeast at first. Showers in the north accompanied with the risk of hail and thunder. Winds fresh to strong across much of the UK, potential for gales at first in the south and east, becoming confined to the northwest later. Temperatures nearer average, with a chance of warmer conditions in the SE. Further spells of rain, showers and fresh winds mainly for the north, with some hill snow in the far north through early next week. After that, remaining unsettled for the rest of the period with showers, longer spells of rain and strong winds, with temperatures likely to dip back below average, or remain close to.

Monday 17 May - Monday 31 May

Confidence is low for this outlook, as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled and dry conditions through this period. Towards the north there is an increased chance of unsettled weather as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures most likely to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 10 May - Wednesday 19 May

Remaining unsettled into the new week and for the rest of this period. To start, spells of locally heavy rain across the far northwest, while all other areas see a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers on Monday. Downpours can possibly be quite heavy, with risks of hail and thunderstorms in the west. Winds fresh to strong across much of the UK, with potential for gales at first in the north and west, becoming confined to the northwest later. Temperatures nearer average to rather warm, bar the far north which is likely to still feel rather cold, to begin the week. A return to near to below-average temperatures thereafter with the ongoing unsettled weather of mixed showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds.

Wednesday 19 May - Wednesday 2 Jun

Confidence is low for this outlook, with weakening signals from global weather drivers. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled and dry conditions through this period. Towards the north and northwest there is an increased chance of unsettled weather as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and cold at first. Turning warm later

_________________________________

Wednesday 5 May – Sunday 9 May

A cool, showery week and warmer weekend

The remainder of the first week of May will see cooler than normal weather persist through the working week as winds slowly ease. Scattered showers are expected in the afternoons, and these may bring hail and rumbles of thunder to some areas. In Northern Scotland, showers may be wintry too. As we head into the weekend, another low pressure system will approach from the west, but this will bring a significant change to the temperatures. Saturday and Sunday will see much warmer air move in from the south as bands of rain push into western and northern areas.

Monday 10 May – Sunday 16 May

Staying cool and showery for a time

The very warm air is not likely to stick around for too long, with a cold front bringing temperatures back below normal early in the second week of May. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will tend to be nearby or just to the south as high pressure retreats into the tropical Atlantic. Low pressure should be more dominant throughout the week, although we do expect high pressure to build back into the UK later on, towards mid-May.

As the high builds in from the south, northwest or north winds will develop on the northern edge of it, and this will continue to feed a polar air mass into the UK. Temperatures will stay a bit below normal for the time of year throughout the week, but around mid-May we should begin to see some drier conditions. This is due to the high pressure system from the south pushing the jet stream north of the UK, which will take the weather fronts with it.

The one potential hang up in the forecast is over high pressure to the northwest of the UK. If this high instead builds stronger to the north of us, it will set up a drier pattern with warmer air feeding in from the south. This would likely create a distinct north-south split, as Scotland and surrounding areas are still feeling the polar air while southern England and Wales get tropical Mediterranean air. There is perhaps a 25% chance of this developing instead.

Monday 17 May – Sunday 30 May

Dry weather at first; warmer and wetter later

The second half of May will increasingly be dominated by a strong area of high pressure from the southwest. This high, often called the "Azores high" due to its tendency to strength near the island chain, is a prominent feature in the Atlantic in late spring and summer as the northern hemisphere warms. This year there is also unusually warm sea surface temperatures in both the Pacific and Atlantic which helps promote high pressure development around the Azores and west of Europe.

Our computer models are not having a very successful time forecasting the long range pattern this month, so we are leaning a bit more on the historical analogues. These are statistical analyses of previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing now. Many of these historical analogues suggest high pressure will have a frequent presence in western Europe, but they differ on exactly where and how extensive it will be.

For the forecast over this fortnight, we expect a lot of dry weather with high pressure nearby or overhead. Temperatures will likely moderate and even begin to warm up as there are some encouraging signals for the high to finally shift eastwards towards the end of the month. This would also come with some wetter weather as low pressure develops to the west of Ireland. The main risk for this forecast, with perhaps a 35% chance of developing, is that colder air continues to feed in from the north with a more unsettled pattern returning later in the month.

Further ahead

With better signs for a warmer, but wetter, end of the month, we will look into early June to see how the start of meteorological summer is trending.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Tuesday 11 May - Thursday 20 May

A mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers are likely on Tuesday, with some of the showers being locally heavy and possibly thundery. The most frequent downpours will be in the north and west, and a more organised band of rain may approach from the southwest later in the day. Southern parts of the country could well receive rain on Wednesday and Thursday, while conditions further north could be clearer but showery. The unsettled theme continues through the remainder of this period, with longer spells of rain and showers in between. It's likely to be breezy at times; especially around coastal areas, where gales may occur. Temperatures will be near to or slightly below average, though overnight frosts becoming unlikely.

Wednesday 19 May - Wednesday 2 Jun

Confidence is low for this outlook, with weakening signals from global weather drivers. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled and dry conditions through this period. Towards the north and northwest there is an increased chance of unsettled weather as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 12 May - Friday 21 May

A mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers are likely on Wednesday, with heavy and possible thundery downpours in the far north. A more organised band of rain may approach from the southwest later in the day. Remaining showery for the rest of the week with the chance of a brief settled spell from the west into Friday. The unsettled theme then continues through the remainder of this period, with longer spells of rain and showers in between, the clearest conditions are most likely in the north. It's likely to be breezy at times; especially around coastal areas, where gales may occur. Temperatures will be near to or slightly below average, though overnight frosts becoming unlikely.

Friday 21 May - Friday 4 Jun

Confidence remains low for this period with weather conditions typical for Spring. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled and dry conditions through this period. Towards the north and northwest there is an increased chance of unsettled weather as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and cold at first. Turning warm later

_________________________________

Saturday 8 May – Sunday 16 May

Stormy weekend followed by a cool, showery week.

A stormy weekend is in store for the UK as a low pressure system pushes in from the west, bringing heavy rain and some strong winds. The warm front is also bringing some very warm air into southern and eastern areas, but only on Sunday. By Monday, low pressure will drift overhead as the cold front heads east, bringing colder Atlantic air back into the UK. This low will stick around throughout the rest of the week. This will keep the weather showery and feeling a bit below average, but not as cold as the week just gone was.

Monday 17 May – Sunday 23 May

Staying a bit cool but drying out later.

Heading into late May, we expect low pressure overhead to gradually get pushed away to the north and northeast for a time. High pressure building in from the southwest will tend to dry things out, but also promote more northerly winds. These winds will tend to keep thing temperatures a bit below average, so we aren't quite finished with our unusually cold spring. This pattern change should be gradual, so the start of the week may still be a bit unsettled with some scattered afternoon showers as low pressure remains nearby.

However, the end of the week is expected to trend drier with the cooler air lingering as high pressure builds in. We have medium confidence in the large-scale pattern, but lower confidence on the exact temperatures, which are still proving a bit tricky to pin down. We do think it is more likely to be below average than above, but how much below average we are is uncertain. If low pressure drifts east early and stays nearby a little too long, we may see a colder end to the week than expected. Additionally, there is a chance, perhaps 30%, that high pressure instead builds north of Europe, allowing a low to develop to the south. This would bring some warmer, wetter weather to southerly areas. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely be colder than normal in either scenario, so confidence is a little higher for them.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 6 June

A more unsettled start to summer, but also warmer.

For the last week of May we are leaning more on our historical analogues for guidance. These are forecasts based on a statistical analysis of previous years that saw similar large-scale weather patterns. These have been proving useful in recent weeks with the computer models having some very poor performances. One year that saw similar pattern was 2012, which ended up having a pretty wet and cool summer! We still expect that late-May will see high pressure shift north and east away from the UK, allowing low pressure to develop to the south of us.

These lows tend to bring some wetter conditions to southern areas and there is potential for some warmth too. Southerly winds can transport warmer air from Spain or Africa into the UK, but this will only happen if the low is further west. Again, we have medium confidence on the large-scale pattern, but low confidence on the temperatures. Early June, and the first week of meteorological summer, has some encouraging signs from the historical analogues for a westerly pattern to develop.

This would allow lows to move in from the west bringing unsettled weather but also warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. High pressure to the east and northeast would mean fronts would tend to stall nearby, so strong winds and stormy weather is less likely. The risk for this period is that high pressure instead remains nearby or overhead. This is a drier pattern but also a colder pattern as the high would promote northerly or north-west winds and continue to transport polar air into the UK.

Further ahead

We will have a look at the end of spring and start of summer to see how wet or warm things might get after a dry, cold spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Thursday 13 May - Saturday 22 May

Cloudy on Thursday starting with outbreaks of rain and showers, especially in the southwest of the UK. Showers are expected to become more widespread during the day, with these heavy and potentially thundery for the south. The breeziest conditions expected in the far northwest. Remaining showery for the rest of the week with the chance of a brief settled spell from the west into Friday. The unsettled theme then continues through the remainder of this period, with longer spells of rain and showers in between, the clearest conditions are most likely in the north. It's likely to be breezy at times; especially around coastal areas, where gales may occur. Temperatures will be near to or slightly below average, though with the formation of overnight frosts becoming unlikely.

Saturday 22 May - Saturday 5 Jun

Confidence remains low for this period with weather conditions typical for Spring. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled and dry conditions through this period. Towards the north and northwest there is an increased chance of unsettled weather as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 14 May - Sunday 23 May

Many places cloudy to start with showers or outbreaks of rain on Friday and winds mostly light. These showers especially prevalent in the south, whilst tending to die away in the north through the day with the best of any sunshine here. Rather cloudy or misty along some North Sea coast in the north. Temperatures still a little below average for most, especially in the cloudier south. The unsettled theme then continues through the remainder of this period, with longer spells of rain and showers in between, the clearest conditions are most likely in the north. It's likely to be breezy at times; especially around coastal areas, where gales may occur. Temperatures will be near to or slightly below average, though with the formation of overnight frosts becoming unlikely.

Saturday 22 May - Saturday 5 Jun

Confidence remains low for this period with weather conditions typical for Spring. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled and dry conditions through this period. Towards the north and northwest there is an increased chance of unsettled weather as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Yesterday's update looks absolutely rubbish 

---

Saturday 15 May - Monday 24 May

Most likely remaining unsettled throughout the period, with Saturday seeing sunshine and showers. Accompanying this will be some breezy winds in the far north, with a period of more prolonged, organised, rain affecting both there and the far south. Temperatures still a little below average for most, especially in the cloudier south. The north will perhaps be becoming more settled for a time, with the south most likely to see any longer spells of persistent rain. It's likely to be breezy at times, especially around coastal areas, where gales may occur. Temperatures will be near to or slightly below average, with the best of any warmer spells in the southeast, and with the formation of overnight frosts becoming less likely.

Sunday 23 May - Sunday 6 Jun

Confidence remains low for this period, although typical spring weather patterns are most probable, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers for most parts of the UK, especially at first. Overall, the driest and most settled conditions are most probable in the south, with the north generally more unsettled as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Good news! Ultra long-range maps from the Weather Outlook show a warm spell is set to sweep across the UK in August.

 

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/uk-weather-brits-set-summer-5399075