Very unlikely in the South East. Six weeks with no rain can't be made up in summer due to transpiration from trees and plants and evaporation. That's if it does rain which it hasn't much in the last few summers.

Not unheard of but it is new to an extent. Several two season years here recently, wet and dry.

Six weeks without rain in Spring can never be made up, as far as agriculture and horticulture is concerned.  Seeds and plants need moist soil to get established and it is very dry here and I’m not convinced any showers we ‘might’ get this week will have any impact either.  I’ve personally loved the dry warm days we’ve had this month, but the farmers and growers haven’t. 

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The ground needs lengthy dry periods in spring to dry out, plants require it. Without the drying of the waterlogged grounds after winter nothing would grow - dryer top soil also encourages deeper stronger root growth. People on here seem forget just how quickly the rains can arrive, and just how quick a dry landscape can become a soggy mud bath.

Six weeks without rain in Spring can never be made up, as far as agriculture and horticulture is concerned.  Seeds and plants need moist soil to get established and it is very dry here and I’m not convinced any showers we ‘might’ get this week will have any impact either.  I’ve personally loved the dry warm days we’ve had this month, but the farmers and growers haven’t. 

It's been dry but not that warm here. The top of the soil is dried out but it's still got plenty of moisture when you dig down a bit. If the GFS 06Z is anywhere near right the water tables should get topped up. 

The ground needs lengthy dry periods in spring to dry out, plants require it. Without the drying of the waterlogged grounds after winter nothing would grow - dryer top soil also encourages deeper stronger root growth. People on here seem forget just how quickly the rains can arrive, and just how quick a dry landscape can become a soggy mud bath.

 

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The ground needs lengthy dry periods in spring to dry out, plants require it. Without the drying of the waterlogged grounds after winter nothing would grow - dryer top soil also encourages deeper stronger root growth. People on here seem forget just how quickly the rains can arrive, and just how quick a dry landscape can become a soggy mud bath.

Yes, that’s true but it depends on soil type.  Here we’re mainly on free draining sand and it’s currently like dust. 

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Blizzards in part of the south on May 11. 

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Blizzards in part of the south on May 11. 

 

That's the kind of scenario you need to break the all time lowest daytime May maxima record.

That would be horribly sloppy snowfall if it ever happened. Just miserable for this time of year!

 

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That would be horribly sloppy snowfall if it ever happened. Just miserable for this time of year!

Would be wonderful to see (as would heavy snow in June, or sleet in July - the latter not having happened for 100 years or so down here).

It won't happen though - but I do wonder whether when this cooler spell eventually comes to an end whether there might be a "blow out" event just before it ends!

It certainly makes a real change to get a prolonged cool spell such as we're having now. No frosts for a while, but the "ice warning" message has been a regular feature on my car in the mornings... and given the mid-August sunshine that we're experiencing it feels remarkably pleasant, very reminiscent of being in the Rockies with the low humidity, strong sun and cool air.

Looks like we'll get another 6 days of this pseudo-mountain climate here, but not sure how much longer it can cling on!

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GEM brings some heavy snow to Northern Scotland on 4th May.

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Would be wonderful to see (as would heavy snow in June, or sleet in July - the latter not having happened for 100 years or so down here).

It won't happen though - but I do wonder whether when this cooler spell eventually comes to an end whether there might be a "blow out" event just before it ends!

It certainly makes a real change to get a prolonged cool spell such as we're having now. No frosts for a while, but the "ice warning" message has been a regular feature on my car in the mornings... and given the mid-August sunshine that we're experiencing it feels remarkably pleasant, very reminiscent of being in the Rockies with the low humidity, strong sun and cool air.

Looks like we'll get another 6 days of this pseudo-mountain climate here, but not sure how much longer it can cling on!

I think your best chance is an evap cooling event. Completely stagnant air and constant precipitation. The airmass is cold enough but can't do all the work. 

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Grim:

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We finally have a few spots of rain and the smell of petrichor!  It seems strange getting that summer smell in April.  

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Looks like my end of Kent could get to have the first soaking rain for a month tomorrow night if some of the models are to go by on, but outputs are varied with some showing a deluge while others are showing the rain completely missing Kent. 

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Grim:

 

Maybe the 2021 Scottish Ski Season isn't over after all ! 

 

 

Maybe the 2021 Scottish Ski Season isn't over after all ! 

Or maybe an earlier start to the next season at this rate? 

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Very unlikely in the South East. Six weeks with no rain can't be made up in summer due to transpiration from trees and plants and evaporation. That's if it does rain which it hasn't much in the last few summers.

Not unheard of but it is new to an extent. Several two season years here recently, wet and dry.

Well overnight here can only be described as said deluge and there is a heck of a lot more rain to come by the looks of it. Models are very unsettled now with copious rainfall for many areas.

As it stands, it looks like at least the first half of May will reverse the rainfall shortages in a very big way.

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Well overnight here can only be described as said deluge and there is a heck of a lot more rain to come by the looks of it. Models are very unsettled now with copious rainfall for many areas.

As it stands, it looks like at least the first half of May will reverse the rainfall shortages in a very big way.

Just a high-based ploppy shower here recently so not really laid the dust.

Meanwhile I am expecting some rather slack southerly tracking LP to set up in the next couple of weeks.

That may deliver what you are hinting at as we move steadily towards the monsoon season.

Well overnight here can only be described as said deluge and there is a heck of a lot more rain to come by the looks of it. Models are very unsettled now with copious rainfall for many areas.

As it stands, it looks like at least the first half of May will reverse the rainfall shortages in a very big way.

Still very localised - 60 miles further south and absolutely nothing - even though there's some hope for later this afternoon.

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16-dayer - Europe still cocooned in below average temps from Spain to the Urals and currently esp cold in Norway; actual temp improving slowly but still looks to be below norm through week 2. More rain now being shown: week 1 in two areas, a band (again) from Spain to Urals plus a blob around southern Britain, week Currently N2 more of a large blob for France, southern Britain and up to the Baltic.

GFS - Current trough from  Scandi to N Sea stays around and intensifies N Sea Tue 4th;then Atlantic influence with series of shallow LPs moving across UK up towards Baltic and finally sticking over UK from Wed 12th, all contriving to keep the UK in a generally N-ly flow. By Fri 14th warm both E and W of UK but static cold at home.

GEFS - 6 or 7C below norm for coming weekend , most runs slowly rise to just below norm by end of run Fri 14th but there is a small cluster of very warm outliers for England around Mon 10th. A slightly drier (showery?) spell around Mon 3rd (very little rain i the N at this time) otherwise frequent spells of rain at various times in different runs (several with very large totals for Scotland).

ECM - similar to GFS though LPs from the 4th are better defined and deeper; Tue 4th 990mb N Sea, Fri 7th 980 mb Scotland, Sat 8th developing in SW approaches

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May starts very unsettled ( ECM ) 

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