Finally seeing some signs of warmer weather for next week, albeit only reaching near-average for the most part.
Gives me an estimate of 6.1°C to 21st but that's assuming GFS is right to drop the night temps so low 10th-12th (subzero, as low as -3°C) which takes my rough estimate down to 4.9°C, a bit below GW's. It also includes a brief cold spell 19th-21st that brings two more frosty nights.
An average remainder of the month would then give us a final CET in the low to mid-7s °C.
Generally, there are signs of a pattern shift toward one more supportive of UK/Europe centred ridges, but also of continued extensive high-latitude blocking, which poses a risk of further unusually chilly interludes later in the month.
I'm starting to sense the possibility of some pleasantly warm weather in the final week of the month, though. If fact, there's some good momentum building toward a fine May this year as the La Nina event gets eroded away by powerful tropical waves in the Pacific. Hopefully that will hold!
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On