Brian and the Beeb have been predicting this cold snap for the best part of ten days.

It's looking like they have got it spot on.  Well done .

Brian and the Beeb have been predicting this cold snap for the best part of ten days.

It's looking like they have got it spot on.  Well done .

Although on the 18z GFS it seems to be more of a glancing blow than it was before. Those right on the east coast might not agree though!

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Brian and the Beeb have been predicting this cold snap for the best part of ten days.

It's looking like they have got it spot on.  Well done .

 Thanks! Although it looks like things will be shifted a tad eastwards. Nonetheless, it has been well simulated by the medium range models in the last couple of weeks. A subjective view of course, but I think GFS handles the broadscale pattern across the North Atlantic very well and perhaps better than the other models.

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Some of the automated forecasts across the northern half of Scotland look pretty snowy. 

Even low lying coastal areas and the Hebrides. Stornoway for example, snow by 7pm Easter Sunday and continuing for a while on a strong and bitter northerly. 

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Some of the automated forecasts across the northern half of Scotland look pretty snowy. 

Even low lying coastal areas and the Hebrides. Stornoway for example, snow by 7pm Easter Sunday and continuing for a while on a strong and bitter northerly. 

Yes, wintry northerlies in spring are not that unusual but the depth of cold in this one is more than is seen in the typical one. The latest GFS suite has the mean t850hPa here at -13.8°C at one point, something rarely seen in winter.

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Maybe we'll get some of those visually spectacular spring convective snow showers like this...

 

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Still a few extreme members in the ens. I expect they will be gone by tomorrow

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Looks much less awful now thankfully. One day with a high of 5C, a couple of air frosts, then recovering to 9C (which is still a bit below average but nothing noteworthy).

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Looks much less awful now thankfully. One day with a high of 5C, a couple of air frosts, then recovering to 9C (which is still a bit below average but nothing noteworthy).

 pointless spell of weather IMO. Sunshine and warmth is all I want from here on in....

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Pointless indeed but what can you do. Sub 510dam air, -14°C t850hPa, gale force northerly winds and snow showers should make things feel a bit chilly here I would imagine.

It is a marked and unwelcome contrast to today which I have spent largely in the garden and at the beach.

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What I'd love to know, is why (apart from the law of Sod) has this cold spell been so well modelled from so far out. The charts started picking this up over 10 days ago, and its been resolute throughout.
In the winter, they never verify so far out, but this was modelled to bear perfect 10 days out. I know the Atlantic tends to be quieter in April than it is in December/January, but how can the models have got this spot on at such a long range? Is it simply the weakening Polar Vortex or some other explanation?

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As Brian says I think the GFS handles these types of scenarios pretty well it’s just that we don’t get that many of them. Also perhaps at this time of the year we (or at least most of us) are not scanning the charts as closely for cold scenarios and they may get only passing interest until they come into the more reliable range rather than tracked for weeks out.

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 pointless spell of weather IMO. Sunshine and warmth is all I want from here on in....

Not pointless at all IMO, but I love cold weather any time of year. As a bonus, it'll keep the North Sea that little bit cooler too, which will have a knock-on effect later in the year (those sea breezes in summer, for example). Win-win for me!

I'm not expecting snow here (it's exceptionally rare in April), but the low dewpoints with a gusty wind will be worth experiencing... even the usually conservative Met Office automated goes for -8C dewpoints, which is very rare here.

There should be some fantastic convection and some lucky areas will experience the very best April has to offer, namely warm sunshine and blue skies switching to snow and near-freezing temperatures, swifly followed by more warm sunshine.

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It is a marked and unwelcome contrast to today which I have spent largely in the garden and at the beach.

At the same time? 😉 I heard your garden was long but that’s impressive 😅

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfjten772#?date=2021-04-06 

Great forecast for inland NE Scotland, Tomintoul -5c with snow at times, very impressive for any time of year.

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What I'd love to know, is why (apart from the law of Sod) has this cold spell been so well modelled from so far out. The charts started picking this up over 10 days ago, and its been resolute throughout.
In the winter, they never verify so far out, but this was modelled to bear perfect 10 days out. I know the Atlantic tends to be quieter in April than it is in December/January, but how can the models have got this spot on at such a long range? Is it simply the weakening Polar Vortex or some other explanation?

 

Yes sods law Moomin. I bet you any GFS chart like that 10 days away in the winter would be downgraded. As for this it has as you said been consistent for over a week now and if anything it's upgrading. The 18z ENS 850s mean for London is  -11.6c.😳

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Pretty cold for the near continent too, and this morning it’s looking more persistent again.

Take a look at these minima:

And this morning’s GFS even gives some snow to the Rhine valley. Look at the depths, and the daytime maxima!

That’s not just the mountains: we’re talking lowland snow cover, and deep snow at that, from Dijon to Valence.

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a few ens still giving the magic purples and only hours away

 

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Still cant rule out the magic -20 hitting the UK even at this late stage

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Pert 16 has the finger of Satan blasting down through Doc in Aberdeen

 

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