My view is that a backtrack away from the mild push will begin this evening and will be consolidated tomorrow, with huge inter model variance for 15 February, in terms of weather experienced on the ground. 

Cold air in winter becomes very hard to shift.  Models will get to grips only at very short notice.

FI is close range presently.

I have set up a snow depth report thread. We should see some spectacular depths over in the east.

If that was the case you would see the snow melting in areas where the "sun was shining" and not "in the shade". I think it more likely that heat was being reflected back down from the clouds which gave melt in all areas.

It may happen that way and if it does then hats off to the GEM. Although I think the GEM performs at the same consistency as the GFS and ECM anyway?

Our natural climate pattern in this part of the world is for a west to east flow / SW to NE flow. The climate will want the revert to that pattern which is its default synoptic . However it’s not been able to do that much this winter due to different pressure cells being located in parts that aren’t ordinarily the norm.

Large parts of December and January had a Greenland HP and at least 50% of February will have a Scandi HP. This is relative in the CET which was average in December 4.8 and Cold in January 3.1.

At some point a more westerly feed will be established. With a massive LP sat in the Atlantic next week, I am confident that will make a push and at some point some of the waves will make it through

A family member living in Crete has just told me that they are expecting cold weather next week. That would tie in with the latest models this morning..

Correct, but for a reason I've never understood it seems some people think there are big differences in performance. Often the favoured model is the one which shows the desired outcome. Rule no 1 should be to look for consistency rather than focusing on one because it may be considered marginally better.

Latest verification stats here:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Latest bbc report still very bullish about cold into next week 

When it is overcast the light is scattered so even areas “in the shade” will still be getting the infrared radiation. So it’s probably a combination of reflected and scattered radiation ensuring that any exposed surfaces that can absorb the heat will do so. 

It still doesn’t make total sense to me because I would expect dark tarmac to absorb more heat in this case than pale grey concrete, but the concrete melts snow more easily. Must be a combination of factors including heat capacity/conductivity. 

And just to back up my earlier thoughts, day 10 here:-

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png (800×800) (noaa.gov)

I'd be surprised when things filter through if GFS doesn't take a dip due to flipping in the run up to the cold spell but I guess it depends on whether it was just locally it got things wrong or globally. Generally though it had been performing very well (new and old). GEM verifying worse of the big 3 but not an enormous amount in it. 

Sitting at - 12.6 C now, and with 2 more nights to come like this, I will be glad to see the warm air arrive !!!

ICON6Z hangs on a bit longer. Uppers of -14C just off the coast on Saturday.

vs 0Z

Looking at the WRF, quite a decent snow to rain (freezing rain in the east) event for much of the south on Friday to Saturday.

Would be pretty rare for the SE areas currently lucky enough to have deep lying snow, to have frontal breakdown snow arrive on top of solid existing snow cover 

Always behind the curve using yesterdays output.

Disappointing today but its been in the GEM for some time and this model has been superb recently

ICON is a slight upgrade, but just delaying the inevitable

Its possible the block could fight back, but it needs to start showing up by tonights runs

Simple theme this winter down south anyway  cold week mild week,cold week mild week etc

I should know been on a week on week off rota on the gritters in Kent.The guys on the cold weeks have consistently earnt a fortune while the guys on mild weeks ( me) earnt peanuts and to see that forcast this weekend next week is a particular kick In the teeth

To try and be positive, if the block doesnt sink it could come back again later. Even if we have a mild week. Seems unfair to get paid depending on the weather conditions!

A few days before this chilly snap started, Carol Kirkwood was playing down the chances of cold and snow for anywhere.

block holding up better

They are using yesterdays output. Its not the same now Meteo have taken over

Collapses very quickly. perhaps not realistic. Lets see what the control does