I've had a refreshing 3 day model break. I've come back to see the wild goose chase continues. 

I've had a refreshing 3 day model break. I've come back to see the wild goose chase continues. 

Hopefully Sunday could be a funday.

Still firmly in Murray Walker territory IMO.

A 10C spread in 850mb temperatures as early as Saturday, thanks to uncertainty over the track of this low pressure and the extend of the northern blocking.

 Hopefully Sunday could be a funday.

Like last Sunday ? ...t'rific 

I've had a refreshing 3 day model break. I've come back to see the wild goose chase continues. 

Do geese like jam?

😉

 

Do geese like jam?

😉

Not today.

 

Do geese like jam?

😉

I believe they do.....

 

Not today.

....tomorrow. :)

 

Hopefully Sunday could be a funday.

If Sunday does turn out "interesting" then meteo deserve some credit as for the last few days their automated forecasts on the BBC having been showing sleet for down here.

 

Not today.

One to preserve perhaps?

😉

With Tally's oft repeated comments about chopping and changing in mind, here are the cluster options for Saturday (T+72 to T+96): just to show how tiny changes can have a huge impact in a particular location.

Six variations on a theme at such short range.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/streaming/20210127-1340/0b/ps2png-worker-commands-8b495bd5d-jg4l4-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-K2q5OU.png

With Tally's oft repeated comments about chopping and changing in mind, here are the cluster options for Saturday (T+72 to T+96): just to show how tiny changes can have a huge impact in a particular location.

Six variations on a theme at such short range.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/streaming/20210127-1340/0b/ps2png-worker-commands-8b495bd5d-jg4l4-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-K2q5OU.png

 

Six shades of grey?

The trend through the first third of February hasn't really changed much recently. If anything the signal for higher pressure has strengthened and I think it is something the Met flagged up in their written forecast. 

In the shorter term 6z ICON EU suggests another snow event in parts of the south on Saturday.

 

Six shades of grey?

There are, of course, 50 ensemble members.....

😉

In the shorter term 6z ICON EU suggests another snow event in parts of the south on Saturday.

 

Yes, I noticed that: the 06z ICON has put a little more energy into the frontal trough on Saturday and taken a little more out of Sunday's.

 

There are, of course, 50 ensemble members.....

😉

 

Six shades of grey?

None of us are getting any younger; stamina levels and all that 

In the shorter term 6z ICON EU suggests another snow event in parts of the south on Saturday.

 

East London snow shield working wonders again 🤮

 

Six shades of grey?

I only see three but I’m told it’s an age thing 😂