Yes, you’re right. It is not a big piece of the jigsaw, just one that could dump a lot of snow inland up here.

Beast is just making a very poor attempt at trolling.

Not just inland, you get a dumping before it turns back to rain.

And to answer the question in my earlier post, in this run at least the Svalbard high migrates SW'wards... which is what you'd expect, given what's happening in the higher layers of our atmosphere. It also provides a firm block against Atlantic lows going where they normally would (NE'wards, dragging their warm sectors across the UK).

What year was this? Dec 95?

I think it was late 96, just before the easterly of Jan 97.

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better late than never, but its a delay and we know what happens to trains that start getting delayed. they never arrive at all! 

Looks good for the Midlands North.

My week off this week which normally I would have a break in Scotland and usually the Highlands. They look like getting absolutely buried if the 6z is correct.

The amount of snow for the east Highlands in the coming 6 or 7 days on this run is remarkable. I know the models show snow for here but I ferl it may be a mix of rain and sleet (certainly for the early period).

Looking encouraging at this stage of this op run:

 

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I think it was late 96, just before the easterly of Jan 97.

Remember it well. Felt very festive and was the last proper mid winter easterly. What we had this year doesnt really cut it

 

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FWIW, the snow depth chart from the 6z GFS for this time next week. I think Scotland is still there, but it's hard to tell!

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Control is looking a bit better so far

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So, the 6z is now out in FI and we've retained the overall pattern. Lots of blocking, an Atlantic with lows pinging off the Arctic high like pinballs pinging off a bumper, the UK in the firing range and a dumping of snow likely somewhere - in this case, Scotland, but with widespread lesser amounts of snow across much of the UK.

Let's see what the ensembles come up with!

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A move to the ECM position by the 06z with regards to the position of the Low, key moment is here -

 

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021013106/gfs-0-144.png?6?6

 

The ridging from the North is just strong enough to prevent the phasing of the Atlantic Low and 'our' Low, it's very close to producing what the ECM went onto show, uncomfortably so and for me it's not worth looking at how cold it gets or how long any easterly lasts for because that day 6 is the all or nothing moment.

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So, the 6z is now out in FI and we've retained the overall pattern. Lots of blocking, an Atlantic with lows pinging off the Arctic high like pinballs pinging off a bumper, the UK in the firing range and a dumping of snow likely somewhere - in this case, Scotland, but with widespread lesser amounts of snow across much of the UK.

Let's see what the ensembles come up with!

By a whisker.

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By a whisker.

I’d be a little more reassured if the 06z GFS t850hPa mean was still down below -8°C here on Friday.

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A move to the ECM position by the 06z with regards to the position of the Low, key moment is here -

 

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021013106/gfs-0-144.png?6?6

 

The ridging from the North is just strong enough to prevent the phasing of the Atlantic Low and 'our' Low, it's very close to producing what the ECM went onto show, uncomfortably so and for me it's not worth looking at how cold it gets or how long any easterly lasts for because that day 6 is the all or nothing moment.

Agreed until the solution for next weekend is nailed on, its pretty pointless looking beyond.

I’d be a little more reassured if the 06z GFS t850hPa mean was still down below -8°C here on Friday.

It is.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=120&code=31&mode=1&carte=

 

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Well looks like it could be quite wet middle of the week in the south with some flooding

That'll make a nice change 

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The amount of snow for the east Highlands in the coming 6 or 7 days on this run is remarkable. I know the models show snow for here but I ferl it may be a mix of rain and sleet (certainly for the early period).

Looking encouraging at this stage of this op run:

 

Aviemore currently has 10cm snow cover which it has had for weeks bar the odd day and got to -10c last night with only better to come. What a cold spell up there. 

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After looking through this morning's MO, you have to have sympathy for the MET and forecasters generally in our neck of the woods.

Figuring out what's going to happen over the next week, let alone beyond that is some task. We have a battle of 2 massively contrasting air masses to our North and South. Somewhere in between low pressure systems are going to stall, but trying to figure out exactly where is virtually impossible right now.

The ECM 00z is at one end of that extreme whereas the other 00zs and the GFS 6z sink the low pressure to varying degrees.

Going to take a few days at least before this is settled.

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The GFS 6z op suggests to me that the derailment is well underway.

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Talking of Friday, here's the op and the mean for 120 from GFS and GEFS 6z. Spot the difference!

(The answer, of course, is that little low gets smoothed out in the mean - as its position is still far from certain. The overall pattern remains solid, as it has done for days now.)

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The GFS 6z op suggests to me that the derailment is well underway.

A definite move towards ECM now. No doubt the ECM 12Z will then head in the opposite direction. T'was ever thus.

As I said a few pages back, I do sometimes wonder whether we are any further forward from a models perspective than we were 10-15 years ago. They all continue to flip around as they always did back in the early days.

These upgrades to the models never seem to cut the mustard for us.

I still remain positive though that we will see at least a brief wintry spell in February or March.

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The GFS 6z op suggests to me that the derailment is well underway.

Definite slap in the face for those that dismissed the ECM OP run. It's all FI at the moment so doesn't really matter. 

I'm sure the ECM ensembles themselves flopped milder a few days ago (posted in here by someone) then the same person posted the link to them flipping colder again. 

Wait for the 06z ens to see what they think.....

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The GFS 6z op suggests to me that the derailment is well underway.

The 00z ensembles were among the best to date with the mean being at -7C for the longest spell and coming in sooner on  the 5th giving at least a 5 day cold spell. The 06z op is awful in comparison but it is swinging cold/mild with each run. Hopefully the ensembles coming out now will show it to be on the mild side. It looks nailed on that it is going to be sensational for Scotland with mild air never reaching there even in the next few days. I predict a foot of snow for Aberdeen 

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