I've been consistent in my conclusion for the past four days! But I would be dellighted to be proved wrong... truly delighted.

I would love a cold snowy spell but with the vaccine rolling out I don’t want anything to slow that down, so as I have said earlier in the thread, quite happy to swerve a deep snowy spell this year.

 

Yes, it did:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=5&mois=12&annee=2012&heure=0&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&runpara=0&carte=1

That's the archive of the GFS charts from the time. It was dependent on the Siberian high migrating westwards enough to link with the Azores High, which in the event didn't happen. Instead, the Atlantic fired up enough to stop the link, meaning we ended up with mush.

The difference this time is that we've had two reversals in the stratosphere, the third starting imminently, so there's less emphasis on westwards momentum aloft. In 2012 there had been no reversals and a warming was just starting - but as you'll know from looking at the charts, that implies a strong vortex to our west or NW.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/page/45/

(A link to the stratospheric discussions at the time).

So - despite the models gunning for some westwards movement, linking us to that Siberian High, the stratosphere was completely against it - like pushing a boulder up a mountain.

This time at least we have conditions aloft in a much more conducive state.

None of this precludes this current cross-model agreement (again, ensembles) from being wrong, it may very well be, but it is a different set up entirely to what we saw in 2012.

Time will tell!

Very well explained, Darren.

I can’t remember which year saw the most almighty tits up scenario? That one where the models suddenly dropped a major cold spell at +48? If I recall, the EURO op had never shown the majority solution. Just like now.

There have been a few...

Jan 2001: The “Kettley” high... So close to occurring that even John Kettley heralded it’s imminent arrival in BBC forecasts... It didn’t happen.

Feb 2007: We hadn’t had a decent nationwide snowy, cold spell (esp the South) since 1991, and the anticipation was huge.  It all fell apart.

Dec 2012: As soon as the Met Office announced an icy spell from the east just 3-4 days ahead, with cross-model agreement, it all fell apart.

Of course, no one remembers when it goes the other way... There was lots of moaning about how the Jan 2010 would be bone dry... Just 2 days later the country had one of the most widespread deep snow-cover in decades

 

I think it was more like T72-96, even the Irish Met had forecast snow moving East to West in the 4/5 day period. Then a GFS 18Z popped up with a little shortwave developing way to the North of the UK. Within 12 hours it had all imploded and by the end of the week we were back in zonality and temps in the teens.

Yep it went wrong in a short space of time , full blown Easterly to nothing 

 

There have been a few...

Jan 2001: The “Kettley” high... So close to occurring that even John Kettley heralded it’s imminent arrival in BBC forecasts... It didn’t happen.

Feb 2007: We hadn’t had a decent nationwide snowy, cold spell (esp the South) since 1991, and the anticipation was huge.  It all fell apart.

Dec 2012: As soon as the Met Office announced an icy spell from the east just 3-4 days ahead, with cross-model agreement, it all fell apart.

Of course, no one remembers when it goes the other way... There was lots of moaning about how the Jan 2010 would be bone dry... Just 2 days later the country had one of the most widespread deep snow-cover in decades

 

Wrt the point I have put in bold, wasn't that the time when GFS led us up the garden path? I seem to recall successive GFS op runs over a couple or days or so that showed a full-blown easterly coming along which caused something of a frenzy at the time, but which weren't really supported by UKMO or by ECM, except by one ECM 12 op if I remember correctly.

spoiler low is already causing trouble, 

 

Wrt the point I have put in bold, wasn't that the time when GFS led us up the garden path? I seem to recall successive GFS op runs over a couple or days or so that showed a full-blown easterly coming along which caused something of a frenzy at the time, but which weren't really supported by UKMO or by ECM, except by one ECM 12 op if I remember correctly.

Yes, I remember it was mostly GFS and Steve Murr. 

There have been plenty of other failures as mentioned

Even now we see spoiler shortwaves preventing the easterly. Its all so predictable, yet not!

I’m curious how you are defining that bold part, because just looking by eye the 0Z set is less cold than any of yesterday’s, in terms of the mean. 

Exactly as I say - the number of members showing -10C. You've seen the ensemble watch charts I've posted, yes?

I find it very hard to share any optimism this morning. A brief two-day waft of -10C air is pretty poor compared to what yesterday morning was showing. 

That's always been the most likely outcome? And you're aware, I assume, that even the historic spells tend to only have a two or three days of -10 at 850s in one go? It's really hard to sustain that cold at our lattitude, it warms out as an inevitable consequence of being far away from its continental / Arctic source.

Over the past few days we've had a few members showing what some call "flatlining", where you get either a prolonged sub -10 spell, or a brief rise between two spells. We've also had a few members show no interest at all in anything remotely cold and that's continued.

The trend over the past few days has been to increase the number of members that show cold, hence the odds of it happening are shortening.

If you were expecting anything more than a couple of deep cold days, well, I don't know what to say other than that's always been a very small chance (down here at least).

Time to call the Samaritans

spoiler low is already causing trouble, 

You mean the Low that has been programmed at that point for days now? The one that brings the spell of heavy snow inland here that has been forecast for days? 

 

You mean the Low that has been programmed at that point for days now? The one that brings the spell of heavy snow inland here that has been forecast for days? 

Its Jockland, it doesnt matter

Down here we should have been in the easterly already, its not happening at all now!

Oh dear

You mean the Low that has been programmed at that point for days now? The one that brings the spell of heavy snow inland here that has been forecast for days? 

That flabby, filling low doesn't really draw my attention - rather the lovely Arctic high over Svalbard does. I still remember a forecast from Philip Eden in the 90s, showing a high in the same place, which said something like "Cold high H will sink south, introducing easterly winds across the UK". We had several inches of snow not long after.

Let's see where it ends up in this op.

(And Beast, for the sake of your sanity I think you'd be better off in the moaning thread!)

warm uppers moving up from France. Spring approaching for the south

 

That flabby, filling low doesn't really draw my attention - rather the lovely Arctic high over Svalbard does. I still remember a forecast from Philip Eden in the 90s, showing a high in the same place, which said something like "Cold high H will sink south, introducing easterly winds across the UK". We had several inches of snow not long after.

Let's see where it ends up in this op.

(And Beast, for the sake of your sanity I think you'd be better off in the moaning thread!)

Yes, you’re right. It is not a big piece of the jigsaw, just one that could dump a lot of snow inland up here.

Beast is just making a very poor attempt at trolling.

 

That flabby, filling low doesn't really draw my attention - rather the lovely Arctic high over Svalbard does. I still remember a forecast from Philip Eden in the 90s, showing a high in the same place, which said something like "Cold high H will sink south, introducing easterly winds across the UK". We had several inches of snow not long after.

 

What year was this? Dec 95?

better late than never, but its a delay and we know what happens to trains that start getting delayed. they never arrive at all!