I’m curious how you are defining that bold part, because just looking by eye the 0Z set is less cold than any of yesterday’s, in terms of the mean.
Exactly as I say - the number of members showing -10C. You've seen the ensemble watch charts I've posted, yes?
I find it very hard to share any optimism this morning. A brief two-day waft of -10C air is pretty poor compared to what yesterday morning was showing.
That's always been the most likely outcome? And you're aware, I assume, that even the historic spells tend to only have a two or three days of -10 at 850s in one go? It's really hard to sustain that cold at our lattitude, it warms out as an inevitable consequence of being far away from its continental / Arctic source.
Over the past few days we've had a few members showing what some call "flatlining", where you get either a prolonged sub -10 spell, or a brief rise between two spells. We've also had a few members show no interest at all in anything remotely cold and that's continued.
The trend over the past few days has been to increase the number of members that show cold, hence the odds of it happening are shortening.
If you were expecting anything more than a couple of deep cold days, well, I don't know what to say other than that's always been a very small chance (down here at least).
Edited by user
31 January 2021 10:04:50
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