https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202011090000

 

This is interesting , flick through the weeks and look at the zonal wind change 

 

Thanks although I wish there was a key to go with it to explain? Obv the thin blue lines are representing each ENS member and thick blue is the ENS mean but... what else!?

---

If there is one single word that I DETEST more than any other in the world of weather it is teleconnections. Don't get me wrong the worlds weather is all interconnected but it is these so called experts who believe they have a handle on being able to read these and how they integrate with one another and how they think they can decipher which one or ones have a stronger influence at any given time is mind bogglingly naive on their part. 

Every year is the same now. These weather enthusiasts ( cringly called experts by some posters) tell us what is going to happen over the coming few weeks ( think twilight zone, crystal ball syndrome )  only to tell us duh MJO wave killed off the nina single (MJO barely out of the cod by the way) or the MJO never materialized. Really, go figure. 

Another good one ie high pressure here low pressure there good for wave breaking etc etc. Reality no wave breaking and upper vortex reaching near record strength complete garbage yet glowingly praised by other weather enthusiasts who are not really sure which direction a northern hemisphere high or low pressure rotate. Regardless of how inaccurate their ( or accurate for all the wrong reasons) forecasts are away goes mystic meg a few days later with another mind numbingly dumb post.

Just a little heads up for those that dabble. If SUPER COMPUTERS can not work out how such complex teleconnects interact and strengthen and weaken within this chaotic circuit then how the eck can you.

As far as I am concerned people can be using seasonal models, pattern matching, teleconnections or a piece of seaweed. My question is a simple one and is always the same: What is their track record?

---

 

Exactly many years ago - say 90's for exception of Feb 1998, we always had proper cold spells every winter beit a northerly or an easterly at some point regardless 

That's factually inaccurate,"we always had proper cold spells every winter". 

Where were the cold spells during the winter of 1974-75 just as an example? 

---

The anomaly forecasts for DJF don’t paint a pretty picture if it’s cold you like. The outlook seems to be following type for a moderate La Niña ENSO with positive 500hPa over W/SW Europe and a predominantly Westerly driven flow into the UK.
It seems we might have to rely on the mythical SSW again to come to the rescue - but this really has to happen by late Jan to be of any hope given the typical lag of two weeks or so before the effects propagate down.

---

 

That's factually inaccurate,"we always had proper cold spells every winter". 

Where were the cold spells during the winter of 1974-75 just as an example? 

74-75 was a bit exceptional in that the cold synoptics came in the Autumn of 74 and then the Spring of 75.

We are now in situation where zonality throughout the winter months is becoming the norm as well as above average Autumns and Springs either side.

---

My understanding is La Nina is believed to increase the chance of cold periods during the first half of the winter. 

---

My understanding is La Nina is believed to increase the chance of cold periods during the first half of the winter. 

Didn't happen in 1975-76, a strong La Nina , most of the colder wintrier episodes happened during the 2nd half

---

Thought I would share this:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2020-2021-final-weather-forecast-fa/

Suggesting a lot of cold zonality and if this is right then this could well be a good ski season for Scottish ski resorts. The Alps do very badly for snow when it comes to cold zonality. - Just stumbled cross this ECM seasonal forecast for snow anomaly for the winter 20/21 shows Scotland above average snowfall and Aberdeenshire/eastern Scottish highlands seeing below average snow. Looks like it will be a great snowfall season for the Canadian Rockies (YET AGAIN!)

 Looks like the UK could be one of the coolest part of Europe if this ECM forecast Materialises.

 

---

Thought I would share this:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2020-2021-final-weather-forecast-fa/

Suggesting a lot of cold zonality and if this is right then this could well be a good ski season for Scottish ski resorts. The Alps do very badly for snow when it comes to cold zonality. - Just stumbled cross this ECM seasonal forecast for snow anomaly for the winter 20/21 shows Scotland above average snowfall and Aberdeenshire/eastern Scottish highlands seeing below average snow. Looks like it will be a great snowfall season for the Canadian Rockies (YET AGAIN!)

 Looks like the UK could be one of the coolest part of Europe if this ECM forecast Materialises.

 

If that first chart is correct then it may be good news for the ski resorts in the west of Scotland but not the east.

---

Christchurch Harbour 62-63 . Will we see it freeze this year or ever again?

Re: seasonal temp anomalies. It should always be noted that a 3 month anomaly of 1-2C will always potentially include colder spells.

---

If there is one single word that I DETEST more than any other in the world of weather it is teleconnections. Don't get me wrong the worlds weather is all interconnected but it is these so called experts who believe they have a handle on being able to read these and how they integrate with one another and how they think they can decipher which one or ones have a stronger influence at any given time is mind bogglingly naive on their part. 

 

The technobabble that goes with it, there's an expert on another forum as regards to this.

 

---

Christchurch Harbour 62-63 . Will we see it freeze this year or ever again?

 

I know it's comparing freshwater to seawater, but this pic is of Derwentwater in Jan 2010:

 

---

CFS's 500mb anomaly on the 00z is looking very interesting today - for December:

---

CFS's 500mb anomaly on the 00z is looking very interesting today - for December:

 

I've bolded the key word

---

Changes daily . lets look tomorrow 

---

I notice Leon Brown was quoted about the possibility of a colder than average winter. He's a highly respected meteorologist, however, a) I'm not sure of the full context of what was said b) no one is consistently getting UK / W European lrfs right IMHO

---

I notice Leon Brown was quoted about the possibility of a colder than average winter. He's a highly respected meteorologist, however, a) I'm not sure of the full context of what was said b) no one is consistently getting UK / W European lrfs right IMHO

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bitter-chill-hits-23052147

 

If its from a tabloid, theres a very high chance of context issues and misquotes

 

Still - seems a fairly strong claim

---

 

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bitter-chill-hits-23052147

 

If its from a tabloid, theres a very high chance of context issues and misquotes

 

Still - seems a fairly strong claim

 

Perhaps he's gone 'full *****C' (or who was that other charlatan that got stroppy with Brian about having the mick taken on here? was his methods something about the solar max and min? he'd use it to pinpoint dramatic weather events to a day, about 2 months in advance. aaarrrggghhh, what was his name?)

---

 

 

I know it's comparing freshwater to seawater, but this pic is of Derwentwater in Jan 2010:

 

 

This is worth keeping an eye on, Baltic Ice, as winter progresses:-

On average, ice covers an area of some 170 000 km², which stands for 40 % of the total Baltic Sea area (422 000 km², including Kattegatt and Skagerrak). The minimum ice extent has been on winter 2020 when there was only 37 000 km² ice in maximum.

2020 winter was the lowest on record. 

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-season-in-the-baltic-sea

---