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Surprised there is no real discussion about the potential for a lingering storm system next weekend over the UK.Truly something to keep an eye on.https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_138_1.png
Originally Posted by: Phil G
Indeed, quite a notable cut-off low bringing gales to some parts of the UK. Not to mention heavy rain thus making for a wet and unsettled start to the new month.Is it too soon to say I'm already bored of Autumn?
Originally Posted by: idj20
This is catching my attention. It almost looks quasi-tropical the way the low deepens rapidly in the Channel with a very defined closed circulation.
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Indeed - and I suspect this is why the meto are concerned about things becoming stormy. Whatever, there's a lot of rain in the mix
The weather pattern of a low deepening rapidly in the Channel while moving NEwards does remind me rather of October '87, though I will leave it to others more expert than myself to explain what the differences are on this occasion (other than the much greater forewarning).
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Originally Posted by: AJ*
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E
GFS 06z ensemble confirms the potential for a lot of rain in the SE over the next weekhttp://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
Making up for the very dry Summer at my neck of the woods. Nature always seem to find a way to balance things out, trouble is flooding will then become an issue and we're only at the beginning of Autumn!
A very unsettled run throughout on the GFS 12z, with only some very brief respites on offer. Seems the far NW Scotland may fair best being furthest away from low pressure centres.
I think this upcoming system is more like a slow moving cut-off low containing occluded fronts wrapping around it and hanging around the UK for three or four days. As a result while there'll be some strong wind in places, I suspect rain may end up being much more of a feature.The Oct' 87 storm was the result of a compact but rapidly developing secondary depression system complete with warm and cold sectors that quickly "slingshot" itself in from the south west directly under a jet stream, hardly any rain came out of it as it moved through so fast but it goes without saying that it was the frightening strong wind that was the main feature (it even gave birth to the "sting jet" term).
Thanks, Ian. I was pretty certain that there were essential differences, but not sure exactly what.
And as you say later, it does look wet for this corner of the country. We seem to have two seasons now, a dry one and a wet one.
This storm now seems nailed on. GFS still wants to place it further S but ECM, BBC, ICON, ARPEGE all have it close to the S Coast.
Arpege has 50+ moh gusts; ICON has 90mm rainfall accumulation in the Channel only just off the coast
(Note - any posts which were made earlier than this one will appear before it)
Chichester 12m asl
Seems the storm will wollow around for a number of days, and never really releasing it’s grip.
MetO warnings for Friday, wind and rain along the S Coast from Cornwall to Dungeness, but not very far inland.
Storm has been christened Alex by French Met Office
As an aside, a bit early in the season but suggestions of high pressure out to our NE.
Originally Posted by: DEW
Storm naming confusion starting early this year
Met Office have Aiden as their first name but as France got in first for this storm it's gone wrong already
Richmond, Surrey
Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Originally Posted by: lanky
As I mentioned earlier on today in the media thread, this is exactly why I believe that there should just be the one single storm naming system for the whole of Europe, even in this post-Brexit era which we are now well into.
That would simplify things a lot better and be less confusing as a result, for the general public out there than the rather fragmented system which is in place for that just now.
Storm now showing a central pressure of 967mb on the fax for midday Friday.
Not quite eye of the hurricane stuff but along with some large rainfall totals, without the heat seems quite tropical in nature.
"there should just be the one single storm naming system for the whole of Europe, even in this post-Brexit era which we are now well into."
Surrender to the frogs, never, independence is all. Suggest we start naming from X backwards just to show them!
Chris H
Warnings out for Fri - Sun going to be a bit wet, those east facing windows going to take a bit of a hammering
Originally Posted by: ballamar
Slightly dreading this as I know my roof has a couple of areas where the wet will come in from that direction.
The latest Met O Fax for 6am tomorrow has notched up the intensity of the low, now centered just above the channel islands at 964mb, wow! Looks like the English channel coast is going to take the brunt in terms of wind initially.
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18762347.storm-alex-heavy-rain-set-batter-dorset-weekend/
STORM Alex is set to bring what could be “one of the worst weekends of weather of all time in Dorset”.
Bournemouth-based weather enthusiast Dorset Snow has warned of “absolutely relentless” rain between Friday morning and Sunday afternoon.
If that comes off hats off to 'Dorset Snow' otherwise he'll have to eat his words or some of them. A brave call to stake your reputation on.
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft