I've checked on the 00z update schedule and it will take up to 27 hours to appear. Therefore, the 35 dayer will be initialised with yesterday's date.

---

6z shows HP , akin with the Met update , fog and frost could well be on the menu 

---

Nice to see a few HP cells in the mix on this run. If we could get a few windy spells, we could be on for a really crisp crunchy under foot autumn.

Was playing golf on Sunday and the contrast between sky and trees was lovely as they start to turn yellowy orange.

Ill take that over rain any day

---

6z shows HP , akin with the Met update , fog and frost could well be on the menu 

Perhaps but we're now getting to the point of the year where anti-cyclonic gloom becomes a possibility so the question is whether we have a clean High or not.

---

 

Perhaps but we're now getting to the point of the year where anti-cyclonic gloom becomes a possibility so the question is whether we have a clean High or not.

" could" being the word 

Dry and average temps will be just fine 

---

 

" could" being the word 

Dry and average temps will be just fine 

Indeed, it's a long way off yet

---

Could well cause some damage in the S and SW...………..The LP , just for clarity 

---

I am feeling  impressed by our weather models, for all their faults they do an incredible job at predicting the weather in this country.

Our small island country, covering as it does one twentieth of 1% of the Earth's surface area (0.05%), lays at the mid latitude junction of competing air masses, on the eastern edge of a vast ocean that spans almost from from pole to pole, I am impressed with the detail that these models are able to predict to.

Ive been guilty of judging them too harshly in the past.  All past errors are forgiven.

 

---

Once again some corking charts for either short term events or long term potential at present..good days but will count for nothing if that beginning of December flat jet Newfoundland polar vortex wake up default pattern kicks in 

---

Jetstream producing a series of big loops dipping down to the British Isles developing inti cut-off lows. Loop  #1 Thu 1st turns into cut-off low over NW France Sat 3rd dispersing Tue 6th; loop #2 Sun 11th becomes cutoff low in Biscay Tue 13th broadening and drifting N to UK Thu 15th.

GFS - Trough moving in from NW Thu 1st becomes intense LP 980 mb Biscay Sat 3rd drifting N-wards and filling by Wed 7th. After a brief lull, trough developing from Norway to SW England, twin centres not especially deep  over Norway and Cornwall Sun 11th; that over Norway moves E and fills but that over Cornwall hangs around 995 mb Wed 1th and then showing a link to developing LP off Greenland.

GEFS - mean of temps a couple of degrees below seasonal norm through to Thu 15th in S, Scotland has a brief above-average moment around Sun 4th (also a couple of v. warm outliers towards the end of this); rain quite general with biggest peaks Thu 1st and Sat 3rd in S, more spread out in Scotland and N

ECM - same general pattern to start with but the LP in Biscay shown on GFS is replaced with one 975 mb Kent Sun 4th, filling more slowly and indeed never really getting away from the UK, shallow LP still covers all Uk Fri 9th

---

I am feeling  impressed by our weather models, for all their faults they do an incredible job at predicting the weather in this country.

Our small island country, covering as it does one twentieth of 1% of the Earth's surface area (0.05%), lays at the mid latitude junction of competing air masses, on the eastern edge of a vast ocean that spans almost from from pole to pole, I am impressed with the detail that these models are able to predict to.

Ive been guilty of judging them too harshly in the past.  All past errors are forgiven.

 

Good post. 

I was chatting with a couple of friends recently and we discussed the same point: it’s amazing how good the forecasts are most of the time. When I think back over my lifetime the improvement in accuracy is stunning: we have forecasts out 4-5 days that are often better than those for the next day back then.

 

 

---

 

Good post. 

I was chatting with a couple of friends recently and we discussed the same point: it’s amazing how good the forecasts are most of the time. When I think back over my lifetime the improvement in accuracy is stunning: we have forecasts out 4-5 days that are often better than those for the next day back then.

 

 

Personally I disagree, even with the recent billions invested. Thirty, forty years ago we saw forecasts 7 days out which predicted a low pressure over our country from disturbances not even formed over America. So impressed then the models could do that.

But even now, the models 4-5 days out can chop and change so much from the outcome come that day.

We have reams of data from the west and south west where most of our weather comes from and forecasts are fairly accurate and always have been from there. Anything from the north, south and east however is more problematical with less data.

 

Personally I disagree, even with the recent billions invested. Thirty, forty years ago we saw forecasts 7 days out which predicted a low pressure over our country from disturbances not even formed over America. So impressed then the models could do that.

But even now, the models 4-5 days out can chop and change so much from the outcome come that day.

We have reams of data from the west and south west where most of our weather comes from and forecasts are fairly accurate and always have been from there. Anything from the north, south and east however is more problematical with less data.

I think you're confusing occasional accuracy with reliable medium range forecasting.

If you think back to the old Countryfile forecasts they would only ever look out towards the end of the week, just 4-5 days ahead, and frequently the predctions for end of the week were very vague. Now the forecasters routinely look out a week to 10 days with similar levels of accuracy.

The verification stats show the improvement in model accuracy so my view is backed by the evidence.

 

Little more than 40 years ago there were occasions when the evening forecast was entirely wrong just 12-24 hours later.

---

Really? I'm constantly amazed how the BBC rain blobs bear absolutely no relation to the radar! And I can't see a thing here because of fog - no mention of that last night! :-)
But computer modelling yes, it's just the details a lot of time.

 

I think you're confusing occasional accuracy with reliable medium range forecasting.

If you think back to the old Countryfile forecasts they would only ever look out towards the end of the week, just 4-5 days ahead, and frequently the predctions for end of the week were very vague. Now the forecasters routinely look out a week to 10 days with similar levels of accuracy.

The verification stats show the improvement in model accuracy so my view is backed by the evidence.

 

Little more than 40 years ago there were occasions when the evening forecast was entirely wrong just 12-24 hours later.

Just like in other forums, another post from you where you are telling people what they are thinking?

There’s plenty of Countryfile forecasts now or just regular bulletins which say things are uncertain, lack of confidence etc just a few days ahead. I’d say even today there are numerous occasions where outcomes are very different from what was forecasted a week out. The only solid predictions are HP slap bang over the country that doesn’t shift for two weeks, or that weather from the west or south west where there is reams of data and knowledge. Even then, unpredictable hurricanes can disrupt those predictions.

There are still plenty of occasions now where forecasts are wrong within a day. I say to my group the forecast tomorrow suggests just to cover myself because only too often it can make a fool out of you.

Really? I'm constantly amazed how the BBC rain blobs bear absolutely no relation to the radar! And I can't see a thing here because of fog - no mention of that last night! :-)
But computer modelling yes, it's just the details a lot of time.

Medium range forecasts are good for spotting broader trends rather than specifics, which is helpful in itself. 

---

While the models chop and change slightly on the LP placement, I wouldn’t go making any outside plans over the weekend into next week.
Orrible!

 

Just like in other forums, another post from you where you are telling people what they are thinking?

There’s plenty of Countryfile forecasts now or just regular bulletins which say things are uncertain, lack of confidence etc just a few days ahead. I’d say even today there are numerous occasions where outcomes are very different from what was forecasted a week out. The only solid predictions are HP slap bang over the country that doesn’t shift for two weeks, or that weather from the west or south west where there is reams of data and knowledge. Even then, unpredictable hurricanes can disrupt those predictions.

There are still plenty of occasions now where forecasts are wrong within a day. I say to my group the forecast tomorrow suggests just to cover myself because only too often it can make a fool out of you.

Enough of this. "I think" is me expressing my view, not me telling you that you're wrong.  Please don't use your lack of grasp of the language as an excuse for starting an argument and being personal.

I didn't say you were wrong; I expressed my opinion. I think that's allowed, whether you like it or not.

Move on please.

---

While it’s offering some poor weather, the low pressure area forecast for the country over the weekend and well into next week is intriguing with it’s stay ability and deepening on occasions.

 

I think you're confusing occasional accuracy with reliable medium range forecasting.

If you think back to the old Countryfile forecasts they would only ever look out towards the end of the week, just 4-5 days ahead, and frequently the predctions for end of the week were very vague. Now the forecasters routinely look out a week to 10 days with similar levels of accuracy.

The verification stats show the improvement in model accuracy so my view is backed by the evidence.

 

Little more than 40 years ago there were occasions when the evening forecast was entirely wrong just 12-24 hours later.

BBC 1.30 lunchtime bulletin just said they had got it wrong today for East Anglia.