Despite the usual hysteria on here from certain quarters, next week looks decidedly average (who knew?).

For example, the models imply 23c on Tuesday and Wednesday in London and largely dry. Hardly the epic rainfest of TWO myth.

Sounds like perfect weather to me

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Sounds like perfect weather to me

 

indeed!

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Despite the usual hysteria on here from certain quarters, next week looks decidedly average (who knew?).

For example, the models imply 23c on Tuesday and Wednesday in London and largely dry. Hardly the epic rainfest of TWO myth.

 

Well as long as London's dry and not too cool... 

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Despite the usual hysteria on here from certain quarters, next week looks decidedly average (who knew?).

For example, the models imply 23c on Tuesday and Wednesday in London and largely dry. Hardly the epic rainfest of TWO myth.

Actually, we are not that far from another heatwave in the SE next week.

 

Despite the usual hysteria on here from certain quarters, next week looks decidedly average (who knew?).

For example, the models imply 23c on Tuesday and Wednesday in London and largely dry. Hardly the epic rainfest of TWO myth.

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/will-it-rain.aspx

 

10 day Rain prediction Looks wet in the South, dryer North East and Aberdeen

 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/will-it-rain.aspx

 

10 day Rain prediction Looks wet in the South, dryer North East and Aberdeen

 

It's the south that needs the rain.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/will-it-rain.aspx

 

10 day Rain prediction Looks wet in the South, dryer North East and Aberdeen

Could it be that I am heading in the right direction going to Cumbria? 

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Or how much of that rain is front loaded to large Thunderstorms in the next couple of days.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/will-it-rain.aspx

 

10 day Rain prediction Looks wet in the South, dryer North East and Aberdeen

 

Suspect much of that will come from storm activity in the next 48 hours or so. 

 

 

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I've not gone away, busy morning...

GFS - Pressure  generally high with some thundery looking LP in the S until Wed19th , when deep LP appears on the Atlantic and drifts across Scotland to Norway by Tue 25th; brief ridges of HP and shallow LPs alternate for the rest of that week.

GEFS - in the S temps down to normal by Mon 17th, slightly below from Sun 22nd, occasional rain but less than yesterday; Scotland similar but dry until 19th.

ECM - agrees with GFS

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Quite consistent signal now for relatively warm wet weather until around the 20th, with a mini peak at that point, and then a cooler, below average but not quite so wet westerly regime. ECM dropped its Northerly plunge a couple of days ago and has been fairly consistent since.

Ensembles suggesting pressure potentially starts to rise in the last week of August. Would be nice to start September with some anticyclonic weather.

 

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Despite the usual hysteria on here from certain quarters, next week looks decidedly average (who knew?).

For example, the models imply 23c on Tuesday and Wednesday in London and largely dry. Hardly the epic rainfest of TWO myth.

I never knew London was in Wales.
I stand corrected. 

 

 

Actually, we are not that far from another heatwave in the SE next week.

 

 That is not what i want to hear.

 

Warm and wet seems as we head into last 3rd of the month seems to be in forecast favour at the moment:

 

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It's the south that needs the rain.

And North Notts.  We haven’t had a drop from the recent storms and very little since March!  I appreciate some places have had too much but it amazes me how we could have missed out and of course I’m careful what I wish for!  

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Finally.

Some proper rain.

Perfick!

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GFS - A odd slack combination of HP with pataches of LP until Tue 18th when LP creep in from the w and intensifies Fri 21st 975mb Ireland moving off quickly to NE; brief ridge of HP before another depression 985 mb Scotland Thu 27th (looks quite vicious)slowly moving E

GEFS - In the S warmth just about hangs on to Fri 21st after which mean goes below seasonal norm, reasonable amounts of rain from tiime to time. Similar temps in N but dry until Mon 17th and some outlier runs show occasional big totals

ECM - similar to GFS though LP of the 21st is at its deepest while still out in the Atlantic

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It's getting to the point now where my model watching goes into temporary dormancy, after obsessive clicking of refresh on every model every 6 hours for a couple of weeks. Now looking for signs on the ensembles of a concerted rise in pressure, at which point I will mentally re-engage.

Hopefully not the final entry into model watching hibernation yet. That usually happens sometime in early September when my model watching attention turns to the tropical tidbits site watching hurricanes churning across the tropical Atlantic.

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After the heat came the rain. And more rain. Then the chill. And then more rain.....

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There seems to be a growing consensus in the models for quite a notable change back to atlantic-based weather in the latter half of next week, with a much cooler NW airstream following the atlantic LP. Will be a big shock to many should it play out like this, especially after the events of the last fortnight or so.

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