MetO: 37 now forecast for Heathrow and Kew on Friday.

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MetO: 37 now forecast for Heathrow and Kew on Friday.

Not sure where they are getting those numbers from. Last Friday they were forecasting 33-34C when the models were going with 36-37C, and now they are going for 37C when the models are only maxing out on 34!

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Not sure where they are getting those numbers from. Last Friday they were forecasting 33-34C when the models were going with 36-37C, and now they are going for 37C when the models are only maxing out on 34!

  Normally the Met Office App shows subdued temperatures at that range (8c too low for Heathrow 9c/10c too low for Leeds, 7 days before 31/7/20), rising nearer the day, but not on this occasion.    Maybe they have finally realised and tweaked the App and over-compensated?

 

 

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BBC Red Button 5 day forecast now downgrading the upcoming warm/hot spell in S.E. Thursday has gone from max. of 30c to 28c and Friday from 34c to 33c. Mind you these figures seem to change almost by the hour so difficult to read much into them.

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Arpege now has 37c Friday

 

Thursday 29c

Saturday 30c

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Arpege now has 37c Friday

 

Thursday 29c

Saturday 30c

Yep. Arpege is onboard. I'm giving a 10% to 20% chance of Cambridge Botanical Gardens losing the crown.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=75&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

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Arpege now has 37c Friday

 

Thursday 29c

Saturday 30c

I only see 36C but yes it has upgraded the temps for Friday. 

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I only see 36C but yes it has upgraded the temps for Friday. 

 

Click on Brian's link above.

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Not sure where they are getting those numbers from. Last Friday they were forecasting 33-34C when the models were going with 36-37C, and now they are going for 37C when the models are only maxing out on 34!

Unlike most apps which are just basic GFS data output and as useful as those who think they are reliable weather forecasts, the Met Office not-a-forecast has some human input.  So they may have tweaked it based on the experience of last week.

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OT but Interesting question as to which weather forecast app is most accurate and useful.

I would say, and I hate to be so boring, that the iPhone weather app is probably the best all rounder. It clearly doesn’t just use GFS. Not sure what model(s) it does use, though I know it is run by the weather channel who claim to include some human interpretation in their online output. There is clearly some short term and nowcasting capability in there as it frequently updates (more than once every 6 hours) particularly the rain probabilities.

There are plenty of specialist ones out there which are good for radar, satellite and nowcasting but few that combine decent medium term modelling with short term conditions.

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Feels like every time I look, it is getting more and more downgraded or restricted. Manchester was forecast to be high 20Cs on Saturday, latest Met Office now saying just a pleasant 21C

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Feels like every time I look, it is getting more and more downgraded or restricted. Manchester was forecast to be high 20Cs on Saturday, latest Met Office now saying just a pleasant 21C

Yes the heat is getting restricted to the southeast corner more and more. I think somewhere will probably reach 35C on Friday giving us a date record, though.  

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Unlike most apps which are just basic GFS data output and as useful as those who think they are reliable weather forecasts, the Met Office not-a-forecast has some human input.  So they may have tweaked it based on the experience of last week.

 

They don't want to get caught with their trousers down again!

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MetO showing just Friday as a blaster, with 37 for Heathrow and Kew.

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The BBC Red Button 5 dayers now have London up to 35c on Friday up from 34c but tomorrow has gone done to 27c which is not much warmer than today.

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The BBC Red Button 5 dayers now have London up to 35c on Friday up from 34c but tomorrow has gone done to 27c which is not much warmer than today.

Arpege has the highest temps tomorrow over East Anglia rather than London, 29C for tomorrow.

 

Interestingly though Arpege has increased the 850mb temps for Sunday morning hugely. On yesterday's 12Z run at 114 hours it had the 12C isotherm across Kent. Today's 00Z run equivalent time (102hrs) it has the 18C isotherm in the same place.

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Met Office now saying 38C @ Heathrow for Friday.
Is the record under threat yet again?

Met Office now saying 38C @ Heathrow for Friday.
Is the record under threat yet again?

 

This is very interesting because, as you say, 38 is forecast for Heathrow, and also for Kew, with 37 for Northolt.

Yet other locations in the area are forecast to be 5 or more degrees lower- for example, Wembley, Twickenham, Richmond, Kingston, Chertsey and London only 33; Staines 32. 

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This is very interesting because, as you say, 38 is forecast for Heathrow, and also for Kew, with 37 for Northolt.

Yet other locations in the area are forecast to be 5 or more degrees lower- for example, Wembley, Twickenham, Richmond, Kingston, Chertsey and London only 33; Staines 32. 

Maybe sites such as Heathrow, Northolt and Kew get manually adjusted because they are official sites? No way would it be 6 degrees cooler at Wembley compared to Heathrow!

Maybe sites such as Heathrow, Northolt and Kew get manually adjusted because they are official sites? No way would it be 6 degrees cooler at Wembley compared to Heathrow!

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1290979302465515521

Perhaps not, in the recent past, but things have and are changing by the looks of this.

Prioritisation of major locations would not be surprising.

 

Interesting model trends so far today - less restriction of the heat toward the SE corner this weekend. Probability of a flow off the continent instead of North Sea increasing for southernmost counties of England, which translates to continued hot or even very hot weather.

It's plausible that hot spots in the SE and CS England could reach 32°C (~90°F) or more for several days in a row. Perhaps as many as 5, based on what some model runs depict. That would be right up there with the hottest spells of 1976 and 2018.

In fact, beyond 2018's, for which the highest strings of UK Maximum temperatures were 31.9, 33.0, 32.5 for 27th-29th June and 32.0, 35.1, 34.7 for 25th-27th July.

 

Funnily enough, last year also managed two runs of 3 days reaching (~90°F) or higher: 33.7, 34.3, 38.7 for 23rd-25th July and 33.3, 33.2, 33.4 for 25th-27th Aug. Both very impressive spells of weather, yet ones which 2020 might soon surpass.

Makes you think.

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