Sunday 2 Aug - Tuesday 11 Aug

There are some fairly strong signals that unsettled conditions are likely to continue through into the first half of August, with outbreaks of rain and scattered showers affecting all parts of the United Kingdom at times. The heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain are likely to be focussed towards the northwest, where it may also become quite windy at times with a risk of gales in exposed locations. However, there should still be some drier and brighter spells in between the outbreaks of rain, with the driest of these conditions expected towards the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below average for this time of year, but perhaps near normal towards the southeast.

Wednesday 12 Aug - Wednesday 26 Aug

This period is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather should most likely be in the north and west, with the south and east seeing the driest conditions, especially later on this period. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 3 Aug - Wednesday 12 Aug

There are some fairly strong signals that unsettled conditions are likely to continue through into the first half of August, with outbreaks of rain and scattered showers affecting all parts of the United Kingdom at times. The heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain are likely to be focussed towards the northwest, where it may also become quite windy at times with a risk of gales in exposed locations. However, there should still be some drier and brighter spells in between the outbreaks of rain, with the driest of these conditions expected towards the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below average for this time of year, but perhaps near normal towards the southeast.

Thursday 13 Aug - Thursday 27 Aug

This period is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather should most likely be in the north and west, with the south and east seeing the driest conditions, especially later on this period. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 3 Aug - Wednesday 12 Aug

There are some fairly strong signals that unsettled conditions are likely to continue through into the first half of August, with outbreaks of rain and scattered showers affecting all parts of the United Kingdom at times. The heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain are likely to be focussed towards the northwest, where it may also become quite windy at times with a risk of gales in exposed locations. However, there should still be some drier and brighter spells in between the outbreaks of rain, with the driest of these conditions expected towards the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below average for this time of year, but perhaps near normal towards the southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Why into if the forecast starts on August 3rd? 

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Why into if the forecast starts on August 3rd? 

And actually, the signals appear to be the complete opposite. Fairly strong signals for settled weather, not unsettled.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable month of weather. Wettest in the north.

_________________________________

Wednesday 29 July – Sunday 2 August

Briefly hot, then fresher again this weekend.

Temperatures are set to rise through the next few days as we import very warm air from the near-continent. Much of England and Wales will have a lot of dry weather until Friday.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will have some fairly widespread rain though, for a time on Wednesday night, into Thursday. Temperatures are set to peak on Friday. Locally mid-30s Celsius in the south-eastern quarter of England.

Temperatures are set to peak nearer the mid-20s Celsius in the north and west of the UK. However, this heat will not last for too long as a cold front makes its way in from the Atlantic. Ahead of this cold front, one or two heavy showers or thunderstorms are possible late on Friday but these look like being 'hit and miss'. This weekend will then be fresher for most with brisk westerly winds at times. There is likely to be a scattering of showers, too; these will be most frequent in the west and northwest of the UK. However, most places should also see sunny intervals.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 9 August

Cool, wet and breezy at times

There are changeable weather conditions most likely next week. Low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic will bring unsettled weather at times. Through the early to middle part of next week, most of the UK is likely to see rain or showers at times. Occasionally brisk winds can be expected, too. The northern half of the UK is likely to be often cool. Variable temperatures are likely in the south. Late next week, there are signs of a high pressure ridge extending over parts of England and Wales. Therefore, rainfall amounts should decrease here, perhaps with somewhat calmer and warmer weather developing. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland are favoured to see further showers or rain at times with temperatures near average.

Monday 10 August – Sunday 23 August

Changeable weather for most. Wettest in the north.

A changeable weather pattern looks to continue into mid-August. We are likely to see further rain at times with occasionally brisk winds. This is because low pressure areas appear likely to track from the Atlantic towards, or near, northern parts of the UK. However, transient high pressure ridges should also bring some drier, calmer and warmer days for most areas. Any lengthier periods of dry weather are likely to be over southern and south-east England. Overall, England and Wales are expected to see near-average rainfall for the time of year. Scotland and Northern Ireland are more likely to have above-average rainfall. Confidence in the forecast is rather low by mid-August.

There does appear to be a risk that low pressure areas track further south than expected, which would bring above-average rain to the south instead. There is also a chance that we see one or two ex-tropical storms or hurricanes reaching near our shores through the month. This is because it has been a particularly active hurricane season in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The remnants of hurricanes would bring the risk of one or two very wet and windy days of weather, particularly for the far north-west of the UK. However, these features could also bring one or two short-lived spells of strong tropical warmth to the UK as well.

Further ahead

A changeable month of weather still appears most likely. We will take a look at whether we can be more confident with the forecast details from mid-August.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

These updates are pretty useless. They are often out of date as I reported a couple of days back

Death Valley CA reached 51c today - tomorrow cooler +50c

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/death-valley/92384/daily-weather-forecast/2258469?day=1 

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Monday 3 Aug - Wednesday 12 Aug

There are some fairly strong signals that unsettled conditions are likely to continue through into the first half of August, with outbreaks of rain and scattered showers affecting all parts of the United Kingdom at times. The heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain are likely to be focussed towards the northwest, where it may also become quite windy at times with a risk of gales in exposed locations. However, there should still be some drier and brighter spells in between the outbreaks of rain, with the driest of these conditions expected towards the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below average for this time of year, but perhaps near normal towards the southeast.

Thursday 13 Aug - Thursday 27 Aug

This period is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather should most likely be in the north and west, with the south and east seeing the driest conditions, especially later on this period. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 3 Aug - Wednesday 12 Aug

There are some fairly strong signals that unsettled conditions are likely to continue through into the first half of August, with outbreaks of rain and scattered showers affecting all parts of the United Kingdom at times. The heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain are likely to be focussed towards the northwest, where it may also become quite windy at times with a risk of gales in exposed locations. However, there should still be some drier and brighter spells in between the outbreaks of rain, with the driest of these conditions expected towards the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below average for this time of year, but perhaps near normal towards the southeast.

Hard to square that with the GEFS chart (except for two or three days at the start of the period) but then these have been prone to flipping wildly too.

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Laura Tobin fans might like to know she did her forecast on a paddleboard this morning 🙂

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Wednesday 5 Aug - Friday 14 Aug

There are increasing signs that many parts will become drier, brighter and very warm towards the end of next week with the possibility of hot conditions developing again in southeastern areas. However, northwestern parts will probably stay more unsettled with further rain at times. Somewhat cooler conditions may follow from the west over the weekend, perhaps preceded by showers or thunderstorms. For the following week, a fair amount of dry, bright warm weather looks likely for much of the UK with the possibility of some further very warm weather, especially in the southeast. There may well be more changeable, breezy interludes with some rain or showers, more especially for northwestern areas where temperatures will be generally nearer normal.

Saturday 15 Aug - Saturday 29 Aug

This period is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather seems more likely to be in the northwest, with the south and southeast seeing the driest conditions. Temperatures will probably be around or slightly above the average for this time of year. There may be further short lived very warm spells, these more likely across the south or southeast. There are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 5 Aug - Friday 14 Aug

There are increasing signs that many parts will become drier, brighter and very warm towards the end of next week with the possibility of hot conditions developing again in southeastern areas. However, northwestern parts will probably stay more unsettled with further rain at times. Somewhat cooler conditions may follow from the west over the weekend, perhaps preceded by showers or thunderstorms. For the following week, a fair amount of dry, bright warm weather looks likely for much of the UK with the possibility of some further very warm weather, especially in the southeast. There may well be more changeable, breezy interludes with some rain or showers, more especially for northwestern areas where temperatures will be generally nearer normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 I got concerned as soon as I read this and GFS 12z has done nothing to improve matters. 

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Thursday 6 Aug - Saturday 15 Aug

There are increasing signs that many parts will become drier, brighter and very warm towards the end of next week with the possibility of hot conditions developing again in southeastern areas. However, northwestern parts will probably stay more unsettled with further rain at times. Somewhat cooler conditions may follow from the west over the weekend, perhaps preceded by showers or thunderstorms. For the following week, a fair amount of dry, bright warm weather looks likely for much of the UK with the possibility of some further very warm weather, especially in the southeast. There may well be more changeable, breezy interludes with some rain or showers, more especially for northwestern areas where temperatures will be generally nearer normal.

Sunday 16 Aug - Sunday 30 Aug

This period is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather seems more likely to be in the northwest, with the south and southeast seeing the driest conditions. Temperatures will probably be around or slightly above the average for this time of year. There may be further short lived very warm spells, these more likely across the south or southeast. There are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A hot spell likely, but low pressure threatens

_________________________________

Saturday 1 August – Sunday 9 August

An unsettled few days; turning hot again later

After Friday's brief hot weather, a cold front tracking eastwards across the country will introduce less hot air overhead, bringing temperatures closer to the seasonal norm over the weekend. There will be showers too, particularly across central and northern England on Saturday afternoon. Northern Ireland will see showers on Saturday evening and Sunday. Meanwhile, Scotland will only showers on Sunday. On Tuesday, an area of low pressure will approach the north of the UK, with fronts tracking across the country. Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and north Wales could see some heavy bursts of rain with gusty winds. The unsettled conditions will move over to southern England by Wednesday, before the frontal system later clears away to the east

Later in the week, from Thursday onwards, there is good a chance for a ridge of high pressure to extend in across the British Isles. A very warm air will plume up from the south bringing plenty of dry, sunny and warm weather through Friday and over the weekend. Temperatures will climb into the 30s Celsius. Later, the ridge of high pressure may end up further east over Europe. This will allow frontal system to encroach in from the Atlantic.This movement could bring a wetter and breezier weekend, particularly in the north and west.

Monday 10 August – Sunday 16 August

Dry and warm; wet spells later in the week

Following on from the previous week, the first half of the week beginning Monday 10th may see dry and warm weather persisting. This will occur if high pressure ridging in from West Europe is able to hold in place, allowing warm air to plume up from the south. However, areas of low pressure may threaten from the northwest, bringing fronts towards northwest Scotland, and perhaps Northern Ireland. In the second half of the week, there is a greater chance of low pressure tracking further south over the UK. This could bring wet and breezy weather more widely, and a return to cooler conditions. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely remain the wettest and breeziest. Whilst southeast England may hold on to the drier, warmer conditions for a longer time.

The influence of low pressure systems is not certain, though. One cause of uncertainty is the result of potential ex-tropical storms and hurricanes tracking across the Atlantic Ocean. This Atlantic Hurricane season is forecast to be very active, which can have knock-on effects on our weather here in the UK. Tropical storms can ramp-up the jet stream over the North Atlantic and bring low pressure systems towards the British Isles, but their exact track is often uncertain until a few days out.

Monday 17 August – Sunday 30 August

Wettest in the northwest, driest in the south

Through the second half of August, areas of low pressure are expected to track over Iceland and near to the north of the UK at times. With associated fronts extending across the UK, wet and breezy spells of weather look likely. Rainy periods will probably be most frequent across Northern Ireland and Scotland. Whilst England and Wales may only see fleeting spells of wet weather as fronts come and go. In fact, a strong northwest-southeast split in the weather looks probable into late-August. High pressure may ridge in from Europe to give lengthier periods of dry and warm weather over the southeast.Whilst fronts may push into the northwest to give frequent wet spells and fluctuating temperatures.

Because the UK is forecast to sit on the periphery of the two weather types mentioned above, there is considerable uncertainty to the forecast for late-August. One weather type may dominate over the other for an extended period. There is a chance that low pressure areas track further south than expected, which would bring above-average rain to the south instead.
By the same token, high pressure ridging may be more persistent and extensive over the UK, which would bring drier, warmer weather more widely across the country.

Further ahead

High pressure over Europe and low pressure to the north look set to battle it out during August. Next time we'll take another look to see if one weather type looks more favourable than the other.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 6 Aug - Saturday 15 Aug

There are increasing signs that many parts will become drier, brighter and very warm towards the end of next week with the possibility of hot conditions developing again in southeastern areas. However, northwestern parts will probably stay more unsettled with further rain at times. Somewhat cooler conditions may follow from the west over the weekend, perhaps preceded by showers or thunderstorms. For the following week, a fair amount of dry, bright warm weather looks likely for much of the UK with the possibility of some further very warm weather, especially in the southeast. There may well be more changeable, breezy interludes with some rain or showers, more especially for northwestern areas where temperatures will be generally nearer normal.

Sunday 16 Aug - Sunday 30 Aug

This period is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather seems more likely to be in the northwest, with the south and southeast seeing the driest conditions. Temperatures will probably be around or slightly above the average for this time of year. There may be further short lived very warm spells, these more likely across the south or southeast. There are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 8 Aug - Monday 17 Aug

Over the weekend, there should be a good deal of sunny and very warm weather across the UK, with the hottest conditions likely to be in the southeast. Most places will be dry, although there is a small risk that some isolated thunderstorms may break out, especially across the south of the UK. Moving into the following week, a fair amount of dry, bright and warm weather looks likely for much of the UK with a possibility of some further very warm weather, especially in the southeast. More changeable, breezy interludes with some rain or showers are possible at times in the period, more especially for the northwest of the UK where temperatures will be nearer normal.

Tuesday 18 Aug - Tuesday 1 Sep

This period is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather seems more likely to be in the northwest, with the south and southeast seeing the driest conditions. Temperatures will probably be around or slightly above the average for this time of year. There may be further short lived very warm spells, these more likely across the south or southeast. There are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 9 Aug - Tuesday 18 Aug

There should be a gradual change in conditions through this period as the warm or very warm weather will most likely be displaced east and southeastwards. It will be replaced by fresher, changeable conditions from the west. There should still be a good deal of fine and dry weather across the UK through the period. However, there is a continued risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms in many areas, particularly across the south earlier on in the period. It will be widely warm or very warm at the start of the period, and it could be hot in the southeast at times. Towards the end of the period, temperatures will trend back to near the average for most areas, with the southeast possibly staying warm

Wednesday 19 Aug - Wednesday 2 Sep

Confidence remains fairly low for the last two weeks of August and into early September. The south is most likely to see the best of any fine and dry weather as westerlies and southwesterlies dominate. Elsewhere could see some periods of dry and settled weather interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather, primarily from Atlantic frontal systems. The wettest and windiest conditions will most likely be towards the northwest, with the southeast staying driest. Temperatures will be most likely around average or slightly above. There could be some short-lived very warm spells, most likely confined to the south and southeast of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

So they have finally binned the "tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled across the UK" which has been floating in there for most updates since the beginning of summer!

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Monday 10 Aug - Wednesday 19 Aug

There should be a gradual change in conditions through this period as the warm or very warm weather will most likely be displaced east and southeastwards. It will be replaced by fresher, changeable conditions from the west. There should still be a good deal of fine and dry weather across the UK through the period. However, there is a continued risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms in many areas, particularly across the south earlier on in the period. It will be widely warm or very warm at the start of the period, and it could be hot in the southeast at times. Towards the end of the period, temperatures will trend back to near the average for most areas, with the southeast possibly staying warm.

Thursday 20 Aug - Thursday 3 Sep

Confidence remains fairly low for this period. The south is most likely to see the best of any fine and dry weather as westerlies and southwesterlies dominate. Elsewhere could see some periods of dry and settled weather interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather, primarily from Atlantic frontal systems. The wettest and windiest conditions will most likely be towards the northwest, with the southeast staying driest. Temperatures will be most likely around average or slightly above. There could be some short-lived very warm spells, most likely confined to the south and southeast of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 11 Aug - Thursday 20 Aug

There should be a gradual change in conditions through this period as the warm or very warm weather will most likely be displaced east and southeastwards. It will be replaced by fresher, changeable conditions from the west. There should still be a good deal of fine and dry weather across the UK through the period. However, there is a continued risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms in many areas, particularly across the south earlier on in the period. It will be widely warm or very warm at the start of the period, and it could be hot in the southeast at times. Towards the end of the period, temperatures will trend back to near the average for most areas, with the southeast possibly staying warm.

Friday 21 Aug - Friday 4 Sep

Confidence remains fairly low for this period. The south is most likely to see the best of any fine and dry weather as westerlies and southwesterlies dominate. Elsewhere could see some periods of dry and settled weather interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather, primarily from Atlantic frontal systems. The wettest and windiest conditions will most likely be towards the northwest, with the southeast staying driest. Temperatures will be most likely around average or slightly above. There could be some short-lived very warm spells, most likely confined to the south and southeast of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/