Pretty unsettled and cooler across the board this morning from about 4th June. How long it lasts and how much rain we get still to be decided. But it looks like at least 5 days of unsettled weather coming up.

GFS settles down again fairly quickly and looks decent at least for the south right out to the end after that. 

ECM definitely one to avoid for summer fans. 

And for all the talk of an unsettled spell, looking at various 7/10 day forecasts for my area, this coming Wednesday seems to be the only day with significant rain forecast. After that yes it’s cooler (high teens) but plenty of sunshine still. 

---

NW-ly jetstream sets in over UK from Wed 3rd and stays there to Sat 6th after which it meanders around a bit (but not the full cut-off low previously forecast) before resuming a conventional w-E flow across N Britain Thu 11th- Tue 16th

GFS - Current HP over Norway collapses Wed 3rd, a little earlier than previously forecast, and that with a new HP in the Atlantic generates a N/NE airstream for some days, to about Thu 11th, sometimes weaker, sometimes stronger, with the N Sea holding the boundary between colder N Arctic air and milder NW Atlantic air, and that boundary could easily shift one way or the other. Azores HP the pushes in until Thu 16th, but only just covering the UK so best in the SW.

GEFS - in the S, temps a bit above norm until Sat 6th then a big dip recovering to norm around Thu 11th, rainfall deferred until Sat 6th after which shown irregularly with a few runs showing big spikes towards Tue 16th (BBC weather last night indicated some heavy showers in the SE this week but GEFS only trivial amounts except 4th Jun in far SE). In the N, rain is shown earlier (Wed 3rd) and continues on and off throughout. Temp dips earlier, too, but above norm at end of run

ECM - agrees to Sat 6th but then gives UK a bigger share of the cold air before whisking it out of the way by Mon 8th and then  - quite different - bringing in LP off the Atlantic centered over Scottish borders 995mb Wed 10th & covering all the UK

---

Much cooler, but still very little rain on the 6z GFS. I can put up with that. 16c in sunshine will still feel pleasant.

---

Much cooler, but still very little rain on the 6z GFS. I can put up with that. 16c in sunshine will still feel pleasant.

Has to be said though, longer term prospects are looking increasingly poor now. Dare I say June is looking like a cool and changeable month in comparison to what has come in spring. Would not surprise me in the least to have a below average June in terms of temperatures and above average rainfall..the first signals are not looking great.

---

 

Has to be said though, longer term prospects are looking increasingly poor now. Dare I say June is looking like a cool and changeable month in comparison to what has come in spring. Would not surprise me in the least to have a below average June in terms of temperatures and above average rainfall..the first signals are not looking great.

 

My hunch for June is after this little cool spell is for the month to be dominated by easterlies which will be very warm but could bring a lot of thundery rain especially to the south.

 

---

I don’t know what June will bring. Nor do any of us. Unusual pattern at the moment.

GFS 06z ens suggesting a fair amount of rain in the South from midweek onwards.

---

 

 

My hunch for June is after this little cool spell is for the month to be dominated by easterlies which will be very warm but could bring a lot of thundery rain especially to the south.

 

That is close to my thoughts too mate....I think we will replenish the water over the coming week to ten days followed possibly by a slow settle down.

---

A washout June already?  Hmmm 

---

Much cooler, but still very little rain on the 6z GFS. I can put up with that. 16c in sunshine will still feel pleasant.

I'd be surprised if we only got 16c with sunshine under sunny conditions in early June. It would have to be a screaming northerly for that.

---

A washout June already?  Hmmm 

Not a washout perhaps, but a wetter and cooler than average June is probably a better than 50% chance. Nature does tend to balance out, and I would not be at all surprised to see a cool and wet June.

---

Not a washout perhaps, but a wetter and cooler than average June is probably a better than 50% chance. Nature does tend to balance out, and I would not be at all surprised to see a cool and wet June.

Cooler than average summer months in recent time seem to have been even rarer than cooler/colder than average winter months. In recent poor or mediocre summers, many months in terms of temperature seem to have been average or even slightly above. I don't think even the horror that was summer 2012 was especially cool for much of the time.

---

 

Cooler than average summer months in recent time seem to have been even rarer than cooler/colder than average winter months. In recent poor or mediocre summers, many months in terms of temperature seem to have been average or even slightly above. I don't think even the horror that was summer 2012 was especially cool for much of the time.

Was it last June that was really wet? I seem to recall we had over 100mm of rain. We could certainly do with a bit of rain at the moment but in the reliable time frame there's still very little on offer. 

Having said that most of the models seem to be heading for a more unsettled period. I'd be happy with that if we got some rain followed by a return to sunshine mid month. 

Not a washout perhaps, but a wetter and cooler than average June is probably a better than 50% chance. Nature does tend to balance out, and I would not be at all surprised to see a cool and wet June.

Well after a wet January, February, March, and April, I wouldn't say a dry May has yet quite balanced things out.  

 

Chance here of some low ground June snow first thing in the morning in N scotland!

Deep cold extends throughout the trop this time (unlike the may event) which means more showers and heavier showers. Gotta be somewhere that sees a few flakes. Aberdeen, Wick, Lerwick?

---

 

Chance here of some low ground June snow first thing in the morning in N scotland!

Deep cold extends throughout the trop this time (unlike the may event) which means more showers and heavier showers. Gotta be somewhere that sees a few flakes. Aberdeen, Wick, Lerwick?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_132_2.png 

---

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_132_2.png 

And alot less interesting!

We have a chance at a 1975 type scenario!

 

---

Azores high builds in nicely after 168h on the GFS 12z after 4 or 5 very autumnal days.

 

---

The charts for the end of next week are absolutely ridiculous, how the hell does a large North Sea low from nothing and bring gale force Arctic NElies in June...!!!??? when we had a winter devoid of any such event, last months Arctic northerly was a disaster for wildlife and decimated the bee and butterfly population here on the east coast and the Swallows/House Martins....this one will probably finish off the Swifts too, just unbelievable...!

Dear God the 18z is as bad as it gets for summer charts. Cold northerly gales, snow in the north, temps struggling to reach the low double digits even in the extreme south. An absolutely horrendous run. Very wintry. Even chance of a ground frost down in the south. Bye bye summer, hello Autumn.

---

Dear God the 18z is as bad as it gets for summer charts. Cold northerly gales, snow in the north, temps struggling to reach the low double digits even in the extreme south. An absolutely horrendous run. Very wintry. Even chance of a ground frost down in the south. Bye bye summer, hello Autumn.

Drama queen.. 

its still running and it as i type is only up to 8th June has only 8C being the coldest one morning in the south, and wintry precipitation for the highlands, and come the 8th high pressure is already returning with warmer temps. Sorry no 4-6C across central southern England one morning