Devonian
15 May 2020 14:59:28

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


 


There's an entertaining irony here that generally your political views are a world apart from mine and I suspect mine are much, much closer to Devs 


As someone who was surprised to find that underneath his general dislike for people there's quite a liberally viewed individual I find it interesting that a lot of people with what I would consider liberal views are so strongly behind 'lockdown' or whatever you want to call it, which is a very extreme population control (whether you feel it's fully, partially or not justified). My experience on here and other social media is that some of my more liberally minded mates are the ones most stridently calling for continued and harsher lockdowns, mostly whilst dismissing any view that lockdown isn't or may not be good in all cases.


Population controls for a variety of reasons can be viewed historically and you generally have liberals (like me) pointing out why a current course of action can be viewed so negatively. Yet now it seems the liberals are on the side of the societal control. It's a crazy old world sometimes


 


 



Me? I admit there are people I dislike but I generally like people. Actually I think you're talking about yourself 


As I've said, sometimes you have to do what is right. Lock down was right - the best bad option. And if the virus hasn't weakened I fear lock down  will be back (if in some other form given what we've learnt about who is most vulnerable). And if lockdown isn't back then terrific news for the health of all of us! I then 'look forward' to the return (and more so) of particulate pollution, smog and ever faster planetary degradation. Any good news? I for one will be using the bike to get to work more


Beware of calling people liberal - I prefer to call myself 'Not led by far right rubbish read in The Mail and Spiked' but I admit that's not exactly a catchy moniker


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
Bugglesgate
15 May 2020 15:01:32

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


I hope I'm not in that category. I have never believed I have had it but I certainly could never understand why there was no interest in a crippling coughing virus that spread throughout my area and had everybody talking about it before they had heard of Corona virus. I suspect there was another "unique", possibly corona type, virus kicking around up to and after Christmas. Maybe a sign of the times ahead. We have no right to assume these things have to come along one at a time and have to have the same symptoms.



I'm still waiting to find out what nearly killed my Cousin's husband.  Has identical  symptoms to CV  and was in hospital  on  oxygen for several weeks.  2 separate tests  for CV were negative.


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
westv
15 May 2020 15:04:58

Will be some time before I return to working at the office rather than at home.


Once it's decided it can reopen, their current plan is 3 weeks to prepare the office, 10% of staff in the 3 weeks after that and rising up to 40% in the 6-8 weeks after that. They don't see full occupancy until next year.


At least it will be mild!
JHutch
15 May 2020 15:08:12

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


 


I'm still waiting to find out what nearly killed my Cousin's husband.  Has identical  symptoms to CV  and was in hospital  on  oxygen for several weeks.  2 separate tests  for CV were negative.



Was that in the last few months? Have heard from a nurse i know that some patients in the last month have been tested multiple times for CV but come back negative every time despite having classic symptoms.

fairweather
15 May 2020 15:10:17

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Question for  Dev etc. then, same sort of one asked of MM repeatedly because he's expressing his view. Lockdown is prioritising treatment of one illness amongst many that kill people. Why is the person with covid worth more than the cancer patient whose op is cancelled etc.? 


There was an article the other day about implications for global TB deaths because of how far back the covid efforts have set that field back. (1.6m I think was the number the lady was estimating) Why is okay to let those people die to save someone from covid? Is it because a lot of them will be in poorer countries so that's all okay then?


The linear arguments that are used on here to attack (not debate because there's precious little of that) alternative views are thoroughly depressing. Suggest the actions to contain covid are causing a lot of harm and maybe enough harm that the approach needs to be looked at again and you're callous and putting the economy before people's lives. Advocate an action that will as a consequence kill people (or allow them to die to be less emotive) and you're correct and a moral person <blink>


Out of curiosity in the event of a serious explosion affecting hundreds or thousands of people how do medics decide who to treat. Do they look at someone with a serious leg wound that they can definitely save the same as they do someone with multiple injuries that would take many medics to work on for a slim chance of saving them (and that they know will mean others die that they would have saved whilst working on this person) Or do they have to make a (cr*ppy) call and save the injured who would definitely survive with treatment?


When looking at operations do they say have it because we know you'll die without it or do they take in to account the harm that having the op may cause versus the benefits? You know, kind of like the harm an unspecific society wide lockdown will cause versus the harm it saves? How do you balance the mental health issues (and deaths) isolation will cause versus more people getting out and exercising due to the lockdown. How many are doing that versus those that are just sat around doing eff all and becoming a future heart attack or cancer victim as a result? How many lives are being saved due to a reduction in pollution versus deaths caused due to fear of visiting medical establishments,or a funnelling of resources and research away from a different medical field? Any clear answers on that or just opinions?


It's not heresy or an automatic sign of a callous, uncaring person to look at things from a different point of view. Doesn't necessarily make it right of course, any more than the opposing view does. 


Same thing I've said before I know and presumably won't mean anything now either. Must be nice to have that certainty and grasp of an extremely complicated and evolving situation to know so unequivocally what the best course of action is.



Agree entirely with your view that this is a dilemma and there isn't a simple solution. I think the medical profession know what the ethics are and that is to prolong life where ever possible. Actually I don't think cancer treatments are being stopped but people have been more disinclined to go into hospital because they have (wrongly) become more afraid of the virus. We have decided as a society to not allow voluntary euthanasia a la Switzerland so we have to assume that the medics are treating each life with equal weight. But they always in their jobs have to decide who can realistically be saved. The protect the NHS is to try ensure that every life that can be saved will get a full effort to do that. What you say about "incidental deaths" for want of a better word is absolutely true. But I think our society is not prepared to take a positive step that could mean losing a life but will accept deaths that can't be directly controlled. We won't allow murder but we will allow people to drive vehicles that kill people. It's a bit like that I think and putting the economy first would be viewed as direct action and you are right about the complexities of the situation we are in.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
15 May 2020 15:14:00

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Very well argued HD. Medics already discriminate between patients via a process known as "triage" - when too many present, they have to choose whom to treat first on the basis of multiple criteria. Those least likely to survive are left to last.


 



Whilst this is true, they don't take a positive action to accelerate the risk to those who can't be treated then and there. See my clarification of this above. 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:16:27

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/15/uk-minister-admits-less-than-10-of-contact-tracers-recruited


This is worrying.


We need to get this right, as pre-vaccine, it could be one of our only hopes to ease this crisis.


Again, I encourage everyone to watch this:-


 


https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-country-that-beat-the-virus


Contract tracing is a way out of this crisis. 



A Boffin from Exeter Uni was just on BBC news talking to Jane Hill about this, and totally ripped into the Govt for failing to set up a test and trace organisation in time, and what they have done now is too centralised and wont work


Its a joke


R number has gone up in the last week according to SAGE, so the real number must be even higher


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
15 May 2020 15:17:46

Originally Posted by: westv 


Will be some time before I return to working at the office rather than at home.


Once it's decided it can reopen, their current plan is 3 weeks to prepare the office, 10% of staff in the 3 weeks after that and rising up to 40% in the 6-8 weeks after that. They don't see full occupancy until next year.



Is your office in the City?


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
15 May 2020 15:18:14

Originally Posted by: Devonian 


 


 And if lockdown isn't back then terrific news for the health of all of us! I then 'look forward' to the return (and more so) of particulate pollution, smog and ever faster planetary degradation. Any good news? I for one will be using the bike to get to work more


 




That said. I am noticing a vast improvement here at my harbour end of Folkestone in terms of lesser antisocial behaviour since late night bars and nightclubs along with all-day-open pubs have all closed down. I don't think I've heard a single police siren go off in weeks, especially during the weekend.  Even the local druggies are quietly being picked off by the police as they have been sticking out like sore thumbs by hanging around regularly in the same spot wearing the same distinctive clothing when the roads were more deserted. 

Of course sadly I've been seeing more in the way of ambulances on my street lately, especially as two elderly people within 4 doors of me (one was a family friend) have passed away but those were by natural causes. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
fairweather
15 May 2020 15:18:29

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


 


There's an entertaining irony here that generally your political views are a world apart from mine and I suspect mine are much, much closer to Devs 


As someone who was surprised to find that underneath his general dislike for people there's quite a liberally viewed individual I find it interesting that a lot of people with what I would consider liberal views are so strongly behind 'lockdown' or whatever you want to call it, which is a very extreme population control (whether you feel it's fully, partially or not justified). My experience on here and other social media is that some of my more liberally minded mates are the ones most stridently calling for continued and harsher lockdowns, mostly whilst dismissing any view that lockdown isn't or may not be good in all cases.


Population controls for a variety of reasons can be viewed historically and you generally have liberals (like me) pointing out why a current course of action can be viewed so negatively. Yet now it seems the liberals are on the side of the societal control. It's a crazy old world sometimes


 



Yes! The irony hasn't escaped me either. It's a bit like this Government handing out public money like there is no tomorrow and saying how we must value our wonderful NHS staff. That irony hasn't escaped me either. At one point I thought Labour had won the election 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
westv
15 May 2020 15:19:17

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Is your office in the City?


 



Yes it is.


At least it will be mild!
Heavy Weather 2013
15 May 2020 15:20:08
BREAKING: Sage confirm that the R rate has been rising all week and is at 1
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:20:39

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


 


 


Agree 100%.  Start  giving judgements  to the value  of  people of different age, race, gender (etc) and you are on  a very sticky wicket  indeed.


We have even seen some people attaching  value to certain attributes - Oh, he's a "fatso", diabetic (therefore probably also a fatso).  Smoker (self-inflicted risk)  doesn't take exercise etc (slob).


 


 


 


 


 



 racist arseholes keep  calling into LBC, saying the numbers are so bad here and the US because its mostly BAME people who are dying, and its them who should be locked away so the rest of us can get on with life


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bugglesgate
15 May 2020 15:21:04

Originally Posted by: westv 


Will be some time before I return to working at the office rather than at home.


Once it's decided it can reopen, their current plan is 3 weeks to prepare the office, 10% of staff in the 3 weeks after that and rising up to 40% in the 6-8 weeks after that. They don't see full occupancy until next year.



 


Our place is also  adopting a very "slow burn" approach to On Site working.


Or department  have set up a "distributed" software development system, where the hardware is sitting in my home workshop - with me facilitating  hardware changes on request.  The software guys span several counties.


Progress has been faster than normal because   several of the guys are"dipping in" to do work on an ad hoc basis whereas in the past sizable commutes would make this nonsensical outside their allocated  days on-site.


I will be on-site during our up coming shutdown to do some engineering work.  It's pretty safe though because of the lack of others there.  The pinch point is that I can't be in 2 places at  once (at home facilitating the S/W guys and on-site).


We have recently had an evaluation.  I'm defined as "can work from home but can also attend site for urgent engineering work".  I can't see that  being re-evaluated  for a lot of weeks so will  be spending the vast majority of my time working from home for the foreseeable.


I think our experience  with the S/W development won't go unnoticed, but it  does   rely on :-



  1. Using people's home facilities (which are extremely variable in scope and require a decent broadband connection)

  2. Allowing expensive   company equipment   to be taken  to ad hock  home  environments.


I'm perfectly happy for the status quo to continue for as long as it needs to - it saves me an annoying  car commute.


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Hippydave
15 May 2020 15:22:01

Originally Posted by: Devonian 


 


I'm not sure I agree with your assumption. I think the evidence is Covid19 kills 1% of those it infects (with the caveat we now know better who the 1% are). Without a lockdown I think there would be up to 1% death (so that's 700k or so in the UK) and within a month or two.


You've not answered my question though have you? You were asking MM to place a value on a life. I'm asking you to confirm why a covid life saved is worth more than another life lost. We know that will be happening and is - see the paper headlines about the cancer patient today. You're saying it's dangerous to pick who to save but lockdown is doing that on a grand scale.


Your point about we know who it affects now (which we did at the time from experience abroad anyway) is interesting. So is the harm of locking down for all age groups better than locking down just the vulnerable groups?


The would be no case of anyone getting any treatment in that scenario as the NHS would be swamped.


Agree - but that's supposing the action was to do nothing, which I've not seen advocated generally, although I think Four might have said something. Clearly the NHS had to be shielded from a surge, with the alternative being to just put people in rooms out of the way to die, which clearly isn't acceptable. Whether the way we did it was right, I'm not so sure.


Now, as no one has let C19 rip (not in a densely populated country anyway) we haven't seen the 'control' of the experiment run which has allowed people to start (as MM does ,and four) rubbishing the lockdown and what it has achieved.


But he wasn't rubbishing the lockdown when you kept asking the life question, he was linking to articles suggesting the harm it's causing may outweigh the benefits. That's advocating a partial or complete lifting of the lockdown, not rubbishing it.  


 


The problem is that it was clear without a lock down C19 would simply let rip and rapidly - in a few months. Health care system under strain everywhere. Its not either or it is which was worse; lockdown and control or not lock down and chaos. I pick the former - most govt have too. I don't think lockdown is anything other than a bad option but not as bad as the alternative.


Again I'd tend to agree, although you could argue letting it rip would be better in the long run if we don't get more effective treatments or a vaccine and the disease becomes as prevalent and seasonal as flu. That's a rather nasty gamble on unknowns though and not palatable IMO. That said what I think is reasonable is to question whether the lockdown as applied was the right approach given what we know (and knew from the start) about those most at risk. It did after all singularly fail to protect some of the most vulnerable, materially increasing the death toll.


 


I simply wanted an answer to a question - so effective YOU are trying to attack me for asking it.... Once I get an answer I move on, otherwise I'm persistent - if debate isn't about asking question to get answers then what is it???. I ask the question because I too find it difficult to answer.


You were asking for an answer to a question that wasn't a view his posts said he was espousing. He hadn't said, screw the lives, we need the economy running. He said you can't separate the economy from health/life, which is entirely true.


The answer for me is that lockdown was (is) the least bad option.


 


Lock down prevented doctors being faced with the dilemma of which desperately sick people to nurse. Lock down has worked!


The triage type comment I made was simply to flag that all the comments about picking who to treat etc. is a dangerous road were either naïve or misleading. It happens all the time. You've quoted it as if I was referring to lockdown, I wasn't although I can see why given the context of the rest of the post  


 Again, R, data from other countries and the rest pointed to C19 causing 1% death and rapidly (in a month or two) - and that with enough health care. Faced with the prospect of up to 350k people being very sick a month what other option but lockdown was there??? Probably none and I'm not saying lockdown as a response was wrong, just questioning whether the way it was done was right and whether the continued calls for it to be extended with no relaxing is right.


 


Again, where is the reasoning wrong that: c19 causes (and it might change if it become more benign but we're talking back in March here) 1% death and over a few months IF left to let rip. That maths is then straightforward, and the effect on health care systems likewise.


Same thing, questioning whether lockdown should be relaxed or should have been more targeted is not the same as saying let it rip.


(Apologies for the way I've quoted, really supposed to be working rather than posting here and I'm not good at doing quotes as you did! Hopefully it's not distorted your comments or taken them out of context!)


 



Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:23:05

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

BREAKING: Sage confirm that the R rate has been rising all week and is at 1


 the flag shaggers coming out last Friday triggered  the end of lockdown in England. 


Its a free for all out there now.


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Devonian
15 May 2020 15:23:19

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


For some reason, this whole debate is suddenly becoming politicised, both here and in the USA. More understandable in the USA I would have thought, given the polarisation of politics over there, but here is an interesting poll published in The Times today:


"At the same time a partisan gulf is widening on how to balance the risks of spreading coronavirus with the need to resuscitate the economy. A Politico/Morning Consult survey this week found that 72 per cent of Democrats were more worried about public health than the economy. Fifty-five per cent of Republicans took the opposite view."


Strange, since debating the costs/benefits of lockdown should be possible without dividing along partisan lines. Any analysis should be open to logical debate without it becoming a left/right issue.


 


Fell free to tell us what you think the costs and benefits of lock down was (is). I've made my views clear.


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:27:01

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


It shows that intelligent and analytical people like you can't be sure if they've had it or not. I have long suspected that most who say they "had it in January or February" are wrong and in many cases guilty of wishful thinking.  Your result reinforces my belief. 



Indeed. The fat, teacher hating arsehole Nick Ferrari is also convinced that he already had it. I suspect he hasn't either. If he does get it, he will end up like Boris given his BMI


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
15 May 2020 15:28:13

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


 the flag shaggers coming out last Friday triggered  the end of lockdown in England. 


Its a free for all out there now.


 



I thought that at first but Zoe Symptom tracker been showing that for three days now - not enough time for the "flag shaggers" to get the symptoms.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
llamedos
15 May 2020 15:28:34

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


 the flag shaggers coming out last Friday triggered  the end of lockdown in England. 


Its a free for all out there now.


 


But that wouldn't be manifested in a rise in the R rate so quickly would it?


PS! Out of interest exactly how do you "shag a flag"


"Life with the Lions"

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