Daily data

• Number of tests - 126,064


• People tested - 71,644


• New cases - 3,446


• All settings deaths - 428 

That is the 6th consecutive day of new cases figures being in the 3k's which is an improvement on recent weeks, and with more testing. Shame the cases behind this number can't be 'pulverised' to see what's causing these as we may learn a lot and how to bring down further. The rate is going in the right direction at least, but ever so slowly.

Questions mount over Russia's low mortality rate
From the BBC news ticker:
"Questions are mounting over Russia's extraordinarily low reported mortality rate - only 2,305 deaths with 252,000 infected. Moscow's department of health says it does not include most deaths of Covid-19 patients in official statistics because they had other potentially lethal illnesses. St Petersburg has reported an unexplained spike in deaths from pneumonia - five-and-a-half times the usual number and 10 times the official number of Covid-19 deaths in the city.Meduza, an independent Russian website, says official statistics are doctored and Russians are effectively “not allowed to die from coronavirus”. Many of those who find official numbers hard to believe keep their own tally.

Medical workers have their own list of colleagues they say have been killed by coronavirus. Even Orthodox priests have launched their own list "because official statistics are incomplete". Earlier, the Financial Times said Russia’s Covid-19 death toll could be 70% higher than official figure, but officials in Moscow dismissed such reports as "fake".

You can add a zero on that % figure, and then double it would be nearer the mark.

Questions mount over Russia's low mortality rate
From the BBC news ticker:
"Questions are mounting over Russia's extraordinarily low reported mortality rate - only 2,305 deaths with 252,000 infected. Moscow's department of health says it does not include most deaths of Covid-19 patients in official statistics because they had other potentially lethal illnesses. St Petersburg has reported an unexplained spike in deaths from pneumonia - five-and-a-half times the usual number and 10 times the official number of Covid-19 deaths in the city.

I think that answers your question about Russia's low number of deaths and there is also the fact that deaths lag infections by as much as 1-2 weeks. Their excess mortality numbers will eventually show what really happened, just see below how lethal the 2010 heatwave was.

 

That is the 6th consecutive day of new cases figures being in the 3k's which is an improvement on recent weeks, and with more testing. Shame the cases behind this number can't be 'pulverised' to see what's causing these as we may learn a lot and how to bring down further. The rate is going in the right direction at least, but ever so slowly.

On my Zoe Covid-19 app has people with symptoms has plateaued now at 243,500 people currently with symptoms. This has to be expected at some point as we had not changed strategy for two months. We have now though so I would expect a creep upwards from now. Deaths will follow and reach their minimum in about two weeks time then plateau. Then we will be watching closely to see what happens next.

We're starting to get more useful data:

The first national snapshot of Covid-19 rates has revealed that 148,000 people in England were infected with the virus over the past two weeks.

The study, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), tested 10,705 people in more than 5,000 households and estimated that 0.27% of the population in England were currently positive for Covid-19. That translates to roughly 10,000 people a day across the entire population, between 27 April and 10 May 2020.

The findings will inform the government’s next steps as it considers whether it is safe enough to further ease restrictions on socialising, businesses and schools in the coming weeks. Experts suggest the current rates of infection remain “some way off” what would be needed to lift the lockdown.

The results are likely to fuel concerns about the potential of opening primary schools on 1 June to fuel transmission in the community, as no evidence was found of differences in the proportions testing positive between the age categories 2 to 19, 20 to 49, 50 to 69 and 70 years and over.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/148000-in-england-infected-with-coronavirus-in-last-two-weeks

I've come to the conclusion that both Whitty and Vallance are chancers who know about as much as we do

We're starting to get more useful data:

More confirmation that the spread of infection had been overestimated and the lethality underestimated.

Questions mount over Russia's low mortality rate
From the BBC news ticker:
"Questions are mounting over Russia's extraordinarily low reported mortality rate - only 2,305 deaths with 252,000 infected. Moscow's department of health says it does not include most deaths of Covid-19 patients in official statistics because they had other potentially lethal illnesses. St Petersburg has reported an unexplained spike in deaths from pneumonia - five-and-a-half times the usual number and 10 times the official number of Covid-19 deaths in the city.Meduza, an independent Russian website, says official statistics are doctored and Russians are effectively “not allowed to die from coronavirus”. Many of those who find official numbers hard to believe keep their own tally.

Medical workers have their own list of colleagues they say have been killed by coronavirus. Even Orthodox priests have launched their own list "because official statistics are incomplete". Earlier, the Financial Times said Russia’s Covid-19 death toll could be 70% higher than official figure, but officials in Moscow dismissed such reports as "fake".

You can add a zero on that % figure, and then double it would be nearer the mark.

You see, they don't have the Covid-19 pandemic, they've got their own home grown pneumonia epidemic instead !! FFS, they make China look ethically superb!

I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance

As many are pointing out, this is a Britain First front. pic.twitter.com/xf1T33UO5y

— Mike Stuchbery 💀🍷 (@MikeStuchbery_) May 14, 2020

 

On my Zoe Covid-19 app has people with symptoms has plateaued now at 243,500 people currently with symptoms. This has to be expected at some point as we had not changed strategy for two months. We have now though so I would expect a creep upwards from now. Deaths will follow and reach their minimum in about two weeks time then plateau. Then we will be watching closely to see what happens next.

No, the number of new cases will not plateau due to any lack of change of strategy, any more than the number of cases plateaud before lockdown.

If this is true, it shows that the R value is now about 1, and prior to this month it was less than 1. In other words, there has been a slight change in behaviour, with people mixing with others slightly more. You could expect a further creep upwards from now, due to the recent loosening of the rules, which will make the R figure creep above 1.

I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance

 

 

As many are pointing out, this is a Britain First front. pic.twitter.com/xf1T33UO5y

— Mike Stuchbery 💀🍷 (@MikeStuchbery_) May 14, 2020

I don't do twitter. Beast, as an aside Eurovision is on Saturday in case you aren't aware. Know you love it!

 

roughly 10,000 people a day 

The findings will inform the government’s next steps as it considers whether it is safe enough to further ease restrictions on socialising, businesses and schools in the coming weeks. Experts suggest the current rates of infection remain “some way off” what would be needed to lift the lockdown.

The results are likely to fuel concerns about the potential of opening primary schools on 1 June to fuel transmission in the community, as no evidence was found of differences in the proportions testing positive between the age categories 2 to 19, 20 to 49, 50 to 69 and 70 years and over.

 

As I suspected, children are carriers as well. Schoolteachers are being attacked by the RWM and a well organised social media campaign by Cummings for being lazy cowards

Schools should not re-open and the lockdown has already broken down in England. It started last Friday when the flag shaggers were out celebrating Brexit again

If infection rates go up thanks to this, perhaps even Teflon Boris will struggle to bluff his way out

 

I don't do twitter. Beast, as an aside Eurovision is on Saturday in case you aren't aware. Know you love it!

I don't think its a new one, just repeats?! 

I did love it, in the days of Bucks fizz and when Terry Wogan presented it

I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance

 

Don't you mix with up with that lot!

 

Don't you mix with up with that lot!

I'd go along just to see if the police actually attempt to do anything! I suspect no fines will be issued and plod will stick to going after the motorist who drives at 31mph

 

I don't think its a new one, just repeats?! 

I did love it, in the days of Bucks fizz and when Terry Wogan presented it

It is new - all of this year's songs were already selected, and will be presented on Saturday night. There just won't be any (official) voting. Many countries are doing a vote anyway, but there will be no official winner so that Netherlands still get to host properly in 2021 (assuming it's safe to do so by then)

As expected, the media don't understand what 100% accuracy and what 99.8% specificity really mean for the antibody tests. The lower the prevalence of the decease in the population, the higher the chance that the antibody test will return a false positive, even with a specificity rate of 99.8%.

I made a simple table to illustrate this for testing 10,000 people. If the true prevalence of the decease is 0.5%, then the antibody test developed by Roche has almost 30% chance of returning  a false positive for any single person. This risk drops to less than 1% only if the prevalence is 20%.

I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance

 

 

As many are pointing out, this is a Britain First front. pic.twitter.com/xf1T33UO5y

— Mike Stuchbery 💀🍷 (@MikeStuchbery_) May 14, 2020

Yeah, they're well hard. Just happened to choose the city with the lowest infection rate in the UK ! I bet Norwich City Council are delighted to let this spread the virus to them. Of course it won't happen. The police and army will prevent it.

As expected, the media don't understand what 100% accuracy and what 99.8% specificity really mean for the antibody tests. The lower the prevalence of the decease in the population, the higher the chance that the antibody test will return a false positive, even with a specificity rate of 99.8%.

I made a simple table to illustrate this for testing 10,000 people. If the true prevalence of the decease is 0.5%, then the antibody test developed by Roche has almost 30% chance of returning  a false positive for any single person. This risk drops to less than 1% only if the prevalence is 20%.

Daft question - I thought the specificity meant it's accuracy in determining this strain of coronavirus from others?

I can't see your table as too small but to work out an idea of how many false positives it may cause wouldn't you also need to know or at least guess how much of the sample already have other coronavirus antibodies, or is it accepted that everyone will have them due to common cold etc?

I.e it could only produce a false positive if that person had a strain of coronavirus antibodies.

 

No, the number of new cases will not plateau due to any lack of change of strategy, any more than the number of cases plateaud before lockdown.

If this is true, it shows that the R value is now about 1, and prior to this month it was less than 1. In other words, there has been a slight change in behaviour, with people mixing with others slightly more. You could expect a further creep upwards from now, due to the recent loosening of the rules, which will make the R figure creep above 1.

Sorry, but yes. It has to plateau before rising and it has, as will any slowing rate of change. But we are both saying the same thing anyway.