Thank you 

I wonder if it would be easier to have a weekly roundup 

I really, really can't understand people reading so much into these stats. We know all of the numbers coming out, probably from everywhere in the world (with the likely exception of Germany and Japan!) are at best an estimate. There are no detailed description Country by Country of their derivation. At the very best they might give a general trend.

The days certainly do fluctuate 

March 17th 407 cases

March 18th  676 

March 19th  643 

March 20th 714 

March 21st 1k

March 22nd 665

March 23rd 967

March 24th 1.4k

March 25th 1.5k

March 26th 2.1k

March 27th 2.9k

March 28th 2.5k

March 29th 2.4k 

March 30th 2.6k

Up down up down up

The only things of note IMO were Vallance saying

1) The UK is basically following the same path as France. So worth keeping an eye on the FT live tracker in the coming days.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

2) The death count is lagging and efforts are being made to improve reporting. People who have died outside of hospitals from coronavirus will be included soon. The number of them is small. 

That's a fantastic effort. The building may have been there but to equip it so quickly and sort out the staffing is astonishingly good.

2619 new cases compared to the 3963 predicted by the jff model.

Hopefully a good sign.

Surely finding an accurate starting data set which can be used and then the same parameters collated on a daily basis, is fundamental in making forward projections. 

Results based on this, showing linear rather exponential growth would be a reason for optimism.

Yes, unlike Italy and Spain, I think France is a probably a better match for us in terms of type of accommodation and distance between different generations of the same family. One caveat of course is that eastern France is less densely populated than here.

Almost everyone was saying that only China could do such a thing, but it sounds like we can too.

I'm sure that the people who have the job of trying to manage this pandemic have more data than we see and are very well aware of the data capture issues.

As Micheal has said, whilst the clamour for an unlimited supply of up to date data is understandable I really think people are expecting too much and overdoing the attempted analysis. It's not unlike the model output - it's the trends that matter, not random variability.

Yes, I know! 🙂

I was making the same basic point. I find the never-ending negativity and moaning in here increasingly tedious.  It seems people would rather assume everyone is incompetent or, worse, setting out wilfully to mislead - for which there is no evidence at all.

April 30 would be a fair date to end the lockdown. Deaths should be down to single figures by then

Sadly the festival beer will not keep till May so will have to be poured down the drain. What a tragedy

State total now 66,497 cases and 1,218 deaths.

Sir Patrick’s slides
3/ Hospital admissions going up roughly same amount each day suggesting we are not on a fast acceleration. pic.twitter.com/qfZvoxfgr6

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) March 30, 2020

I agree Peter, the negativity is tiresome. It is easy to criticise. I personally have nothing but respect for those who are dealing wi this situation both north and south of the border even if I don’t agree with their politics. It is so easy to say “do x, y and z”. If that was the answer and it were that easy then people all over the world would be doing it. The situation is unprecedented in recent times and we are all learning from it, one way or another.

That’s not to say give those in power carte blanche, but a bit of chance in an almost impossible situation isn’t too much to ask for surely?

4 weeks 

Sorry but NEVER in a zillion years , so everyone can open again ? Kids back to school , pubs, clubs , bars , restaurants all open ?

Absolute utter disaster , the cases would shoot through the roof again

Or are you kidding?

If you think the deaths will be that low , why build the emergency hospitals  ?

Of course just my opinion as yours is yours 

Talking  about staffing I was not aware until a discussion yesterday with a hands on nhs nurse that the extra help coming from additional staff from within each hospital do have the option of opp out clauses. 

for example those that are dying or injections she was very concerned that these current roles had been stoped to try to fill this additional need with no safe relevant training and very limited experience to the new role.

I would put the odds of a relaxation by the end of April at zero. Johnson said 12 weeks when the new measures were introduced last week.

If they want to be creative why not bottle it and sell it that way?

 I agree with that , far too much moaning and even worse, political digs  in what is a completely un-precedented event in living memory. 

I wouldn't rule out some easing from late April. Vallance sounded a little more optimistic today IMO. It could of course change again tomorrow.