Had wondered about this before because Wolverhampton reported 18 deaths in one day late last week but has seen fewer before or since (40 in total now). While there will be day to day variation this looked a little extreme and did wonder if there had been some kind of clear-out of deaths over several days which were waiting to be officially cleared.

Wolverhampton Express and Star reports that some of yesterday's deaths actually happened 2 weeks ago (not sure if this info has already been reported). Not sure why some of these were so long, i have seen before a lag between death and reporting of several days due to test results coming back but 13 days seems a bit much. Maybe just getting some personal details, or notifying hard to find relatives etc.

 

'All of the latest coronavirus deaths in England were confirmed between 5pm on Friday and 5pm on Saturday, but some of the patients included in the figures died as long ago as March 16.'

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/03/29/coronavirus-black-country-birmingham-and-staffordshire-death-toll-reaches-142/

Just received the following email from my daughter:

"I’m very happy to be a psychiatrist and not on the frontline of all of this, but also feel guilty that so many of my colleagues are suffering. Three British doctors have died and more than fifty in Italy. There are going to be high rates of PTSD in doctors and nurses who survive the pandemic because they will have witnessed more horror and deaths than at any time in their careers and will not be able to say that they did the best they could to save people, because they will not be able to do their jobs to their usual standards. An Italian nurse has committed suicide. ITU staff in the UK are already having to make difficult decisions about who to treat, only ventilating those “fairly certain to survive”. The rates of secondary deaths are going to be astronomical because nobody will get the hospital treatment they need for non-COVID diseases such as cancers, cardiovascular diseases, etc. We will only know these numbers after the fact. These are dark days."

In a pandemic, medical staff have to "play God" and decide who merits treatment - there are no hard and fast rules, but those over 80 go to the back of the queue when there is competition for medical resources. That is why it is so important that vulnerable groups isolate themselves. My mother is still alive at 92 and my sisters are over 70 - one of my sisters has moved in with my mother and relies on her own sons to deliver food to the doorstep - that is the only responsible way to proceed, even though it means she does not see her own husband, except when he comes to wave through the window when he delivers supplies (for understandable reasons, he did not want to be couped up indefinitely with his mother-in-law :-)).

Coronavirus: Scientist who predicted 5,700 deaths now says final toll will be much higher

The scientist who projected last week that Britain would suffer 5,700 deaths from coronavirus has said new data suggests that it was a significant underestimate and Britain is in a very “dangerous state”.

Tom Pike, from Imperial College, had calculated the likely total death rate by assuming that the outbreak in Britain would follow a similar trajectory to that seen in Wuhan, China.

His paper predicted that at its highest, Britain would have 260 deaths a day. That number was reached over the weekend.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-scientist-who-predicted-5-700-deaths-now-says-final-toll-will-be-much-higher-k07xpgcvp

The government have said this morning on Sky News that we are right at the top of league table in regards to testing.

She also stated we are planning to get to 25,000 tests a day in the next three weeks.

Why are they lying.

The scientist who projected last week that Britain would suffer 5,700 deaths from coronavirus has said new data suggests that it was a significant underestimate and Britain is in a very “dangerous state”.

His paper predicted that at its highest, Britain would have 260 deaths a day. That number was reached over the weekend.

Well, durrr...

It was clear from places like China, Italy and Spain that you still see death rates soar for at least a fortnight after lockdown, as infections work their way through the system. In our case, it's likely to be at least 3 weeks after lockdown as we've crap at giving up-to-date death totals.

 

Well, durrr...

It was clear from places like China, Italy and Spain that you still see death rates soar for at least a fortnight after lockdown, as infections work their way through the system. In our case, it's likely to be at least 3 weeks after lockdown as we've crap at giving up-to-date death totals.

 

There are only two approaches which work and that has been the case from the outset. Approach number one is to contain the spread and to lock external borders. Approach number two is to keep borders open and wait for herd immunity to work. The UK is clearly going for strategy number two as has been evident from the start - prioritising open borders and herd immunity, which means more premature deaths in the short to medium term than otherwise. Impossible to judge which is the correct approach, since much will depend on whether an effective vaccine will become available in the next 12 months. Those countries which contain the virus, will have to keep their borders closed indefinitely, until herd immunity can be provided by mass vaccination instead of natural resistance to infection.

Without closing borders, the only alternative is to isolate vulnerable groups and to more or less let the virus works its way through the population, hopefully at a controlled rate.

Very conflicting stories with a Tsunami of cases predicted at the weekend in London Hospitals yet this morning Neil Ferguson who i do not understand how he keeps his job given his track record , is saying new admissions are levelling off.

 Regarding PPE if you watched the excellent Dr. Henderson on the Andrew Marr show she said her London Hospital where she works is well stocked with PPE. If you watch the interview she makes Marr look a right chump. So the equipment supply is obviously variable but not all bad indeed backed up at the Hospital where my daughter,s friend works, Salisbury and she says no shortage , but maybe not of the Quality you see in Korea.

Apparently Johnson is pinning his hopes on the consortium led by RR and Airbus. Have the Dyson ventilators already fallen out of favour? Serious question.

 Must have read your review of Dyson.

 Not Serious.

Very conflicting stories with a Tsunami of cases predicted at the weekend in London Hospitals yet this morning Neil Ferguson who i do not understand how he keeps his job given his track record , is saying new admissions are levelling off.

 Regarding PPE if you watched the excellent Dr. Henderson on the Andrew Marr show she said her London Hospital where she works is well stocked with PPE. If you watch the interview she makes Marr look a right chump. So the equipment supply is obviously variable but not all bad indeed backed up at the Hospital where my daughter,s friend works, Salisbury and she says no shortage , but maybe not of the Quality you see in Korea.

Yes, I’ve just read this from Neil Ferguson. He seems to be changing his mind like the wind.

 

There are only two approaches which work and that has been the case from the outset. Approach number one is to contain the spread and to lock external borders. Approach number two is to keep borders open and wait for herd immunity to work. The UK is clearly going for strategy number two as has been evident from the start - prioritising open borders and herd immunity, which means more premature deaths in the short to medium term than otherwise. Impossible to judge which is the correct approach, since much will depend on whether an effective vaccine will become available in the next 12 months. Those countries which contain the virus, will have to keep their borders closed indefinitely, until herd immunity can be provided by mass vaccination instead of natural resistance to infection.

Without closing borders, the only alternative is to isolate vulnerable groups and to more or less let the virus works its way through the population, hopefully at a controlled rate.

This post is nonsense. We are not pursuing ‘herd immunity’. We are trying to delay until a vaccine becomes available 

Coronavirus: Scientist who predicted 5,700 deaths now says final toll will be much higher

The scientist who projected last week that Britain would suffer 5,700 deaths from coronavirus has said new data suggests that it was a significant underestimate and Britain is in a very “dangerous state”.

Tom Pike, from Imperial College, had calculated the likely total death rate by assuming that the outbreak in Britain would follow a similar trajectory to that seen in Wuhan, China.

His paper predicted that at its highest, Britain would have 260 deaths a day. That number was reached over the weekend.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-scientist-who-predicted-5-700-deaths-now-says-final-toll-will-be-much-higher-k07xpgcvp

 

Garbage In Garbage Out.

Just read this piece. "They walk among us!"

Coronavirus: Driver stopped on M6 lockdown trip with wife in boot
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52088987

Stay safe,
Roger

 

This post is nonsense. We are not pursuing ‘herd immunity’. We are trying to delay until a vaccine becomes available 

Correct. Or effective easily administered medication/treatment. This could be the 'surprise' that gets us out of the mire sooner than predicted.

 

This post is nonsense. We are not pursuing ‘herd immunity’. We are trying to delay until a vaccine becomes available 

Then the logic of containment means closed borders in the meantime.

However, I disagree with your premise - the government is trying to keep a lid on cases to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, but herd immunity is still the goal.

Denmark on the other hand is going for full containment and closed borders for as long as it takes. You pays your money and you takes your chance.

 

Correct. Or effective easily administered medication/treatment. This could be the 'surprise' that gets us out of the mire sooner than predicted.

It would be wonderful if an effective treatment could be produced - but if it were, it would still mean people getting infected and producing antibodies, but without the terrible symptoms which lead many to be hospitalised.

 

Yes, I’ve just read this from Neil Ferguson. He seems to be changing his mind like the wind.

Then the logic of containment means closed borders in the meantime.

It means restrictions on movement and gatherings of people, not closed borders.

How do you expect the NHS ever to get the equipment it needs if the borders are closed?

 

It means restrictions on movement and gatherings of people, not closed borders.

How do you expect the NHS ever to get the equipment it needs if the borders are closed?

Closing borders does not mean goods traffic is not allowed. All countries serious about containment are closing their borders to people - either that, or insisting on proper 14 day quarantine for arrivals - read the reports.

Containers arrive at ports via ferry or lorry - they are easily offloaded and delivered by domestic tractor units.