The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
12 March 2020 15:49:58

 

Yeah, the opi has become famous for all the wrong reasons. It might be taught at stat school one day.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Indeed. What they did was simply create a model with so many parameters that it fits perfectly with the data. Not a good way of going at all.

What I think you should do is try to keep the parameters to the absolute minimun and add intuitive and physical levels of complexity where necessary.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

westv
12 March 2020 15:58:18

Just had an email from one of the companies we deal with here in London confirming they'll all be working from home for the next 2 weeks.

At least it will be mild!
Chunky Pea
12 March 2020 16:00:56

I've an itch on my face. Scared to scratch it in case I give myself the Corona. Must resist.. but how it burns. Wiggling the facial muscles not working. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

westv
12 March 2020 16:02:49

I've an itch on my face. Scared to scratch it in case I give myself the Corona. Must resist.. but how it burns. Wiggling the facial muscles not working. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

A pen? Your toe?

At least it will be mild!
speckledjim
12 March 2020 16:05:21

 

This is what the next three days looks like on the model (cases for each day). Again, as I get more data hopefully it can be fine tuned.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

If we only get 21k confirmed cases then that will be a huge result. In my head I’d always thought we could get up to 500k (similar to swine flu). I certainly didn’t ascribe to the 60-80% worst case scenario. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2020 16:06:04

 

That is really not good.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

It depends how you look at it Nick.  It’s always been clear that the virus spreads easily and it’s been suspected there are far more cases than those confirmed.  We’ve only been testing those we know have had contact with it, so it’s more likely they’d test positive, although most haven’t.  

We know fatality rates are highest in the elderly and infirm and it’s likely the less vulnerable have it without showing symptoms. It’s impossible to test everyone but it’s likely there are many more asymptomatic or very mild cases that simply haven’t been tested.  In which case, it isn’t as deadly as we thought and that has to be good news!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Lionel Hutz
12 March 2020 16:10:45

Any idea when Boris is going to speak? I just want to know if I'm going to get to my Millwall match on Saturday or not.

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Chunky Pea
12 March 2020 16:10:48

 

A pen? Your toe?

Originally Posted by: westv 

Took the plunged and used a wire brush that was lying nearby. Ahhh.. bliss. 

 

 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
12 March 2020 16:11:13

 

Yes, we don't want our kids to be infecting other countries. This should have been done at least 2 weeks ago.

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Hmm, not sure, perhaps any field trips to Madrid should still go ahead? 

Malcolm UserPostedImage

Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Arcus
12 March 2020 16:11:31
The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, is self-isolating after his wife began suffering from flu-like symptoms after returning from the UK.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

xioni2
12 March 2020 16:12:19

 Indeed. What they did was simply create a model with so many parameters that it fits perfectly with the data. Not a good way of going at all.

What I think you should do is try to keep the parameters to the absolute minimun and add intuitive and physical levels of complexity where necessary.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

You won't believe how many times I've seen similar stuff. Overfitting is easy and very tempting, proper prediction is a different matter. 

Justin W
12 March 2020 16:14:06

This is precisely what some of us on here have been saying for weeks.  It explains why it’s spread so freely and why we’ve all been closing stable doors too late!  The virus has always been one step ahead of us, so by the time we’ve taken action, it’s already too late.  If the above is true, there is no way on earth any country could have stopped it spreading.

Originally Posted by: Caz 

No. You have spent the last few weeks telling everybody to calm down.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
westv
12 March 2020 16:17:15

 

No. You have spent the last few weeks telling everybody to calm down.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

In a Scouse accent?

At least it will be mild!
Chunky Pea
12 March 2020 16:20:26

 

With all the cases in sunny Spain it would seem that the weather is not playing its part 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Must say the current ultra bleak weather and the earlier thunder added a certain portent to the whole thing. I think some warmer, more settled weather with some proper spring sunshine would at least lift peoples spirit up a bit. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Lionel Hutz
12 March 2020 16:22:07

 

In a Scouse accent?

Originally Posted by: westv 

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Chunky Pea
12 March 2020 16:25:42

Any idea when Boris is going to speak?.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Any guarantee that people will understand him when he does? I like Boris Johnson, but I find his style very 'bumbling'. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Maunder Minimum
12 March 2020 16:28:14

This is precisely what some of us on here have been saying for weeks.  It explains why it’s spread so freely and why we’ve all been closing stable doors too late!  The virus has always been one step ahead of us, so by the time we’ve taken action, it’s already too late.  If the above is true, there is no way on earth any country could have stopped it spreading.

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Not all of us - those countries which took swift action to stop flights from affected regions and to monitor all incoming passengers and isolate those with temperatures and all those from affected regions, have done far, far better.

We should have stopped all flights to and from Italy ten days ago for example.

New world order coming.
xioni2
12 March 2020 16:29:14

 I like Boris Johnson, but I find his style very 'bumbling'. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Are there any conservative PMs that you don't like? What have the [censored]done to you in your childhood?

 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2020 16:29:59

 

No. You have spent the last few weeks telling everybody to calm down.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

   Yes, that as well!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

westv
12 March 2020 16:30:42

 

Not all of us - those countries which took swift action to stop flights from affected regions and to monitor all incoming passengers and isolate those with temperatures and all those from affected regions, have done far, far better.

We should have stopped all flights to and from Italy ten days ago for example.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Surely we won't know who has done better or worse until this is all over?

At least it will be mild!
Chunky Pea
12 March 2020 16:34:51

 

Are there any conservative PMs that you don't like?

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Pretty much all of them before May, but there is more to a individual than just their political leanings.  

 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Justin W
12 March 2020 16:37:10

 

Not all of us - those countries which took swift action to stop flights from affected regions and to monitor all incoming passengers and isolate those with temperatures and all those from affected regions, have done far, far better.

We should have stopped all flights to and from Italy ten days ago for example.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

 

Exactly right - those jurisdictions (notably Hong Kong and Singapore) which took action at the first sign of the virus have got it completely under control. The UK is on the same path as Italy and Spain. Just look at the graph Ulric posted earlier

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
xioni2
12 March 2020 16:39:12

Greece closes all courts, theatres, cinemas, gyms, clubs , bars and playgrounds.

 

Lionel Hutz
12 March 2020 16:43:23

 

Any guarantee that people will understand him when he does? I like Boris Johnson, but I find his style very 'bumbling'. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Well, hopefully nobody will understand if he cancels football!

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2020 16:45:28

 

 

Exactly right - those jurisdictions (notably Hong Kong and Singapore) which took action at the first sign of the virus have got it completely under control. The UK is on the same path as Italy and Spain. Just look at the graph Ulric posted earlier

Originally Posted by: Justin W 



I have no idea why the 'plan' seems to have been to wait until it is here and getting serious before acting.
(only we still haven't really done anything)

This could have been more or less contained in China if it had been taken seriously late January - in particular the WHO should have made it clear from the start that everything possible should be done to contain it then.
Since China has apparently largely pinned it down we'd have been about through it now.
Too late though,  a health disaster unprecedented in modern times will now ensue.

North York Moors weather 

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