Dipping in and out of this thread so apologies if this has already been reported but stock market once again in freefall. FTSE 100 down 9%, DOW down 8%. Nowhere left for interest rates now either.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51829852

Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 

With all the cases in sunny Spain it would seem that the weather is not playing its part 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

I must admit I quite enjoy Gavin's one line updates

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

SW down 2? What's that about?

Originally Posted by: John p 

Have a very crude model trying to predict it. Not sure how accurate any of this will be.

Anyway It's predicting 176 new cases tommorow and a peak of 21k total cases in the UK.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Have a very crude model trying to predict it. Not sure how accurate any of this will be.

Anyway It's predicting 176 new cases tommorow and a peak of 21k total cases in the UK.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Nicola Sturgeon speaking before Boris. She's just confirmed we're moving from contain to delay phase

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.

An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.

The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-most-infections-spread-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Have a very crude model trying to predict it. Not sure how accurate any of this will be.

Anyway It's predicting 176 new cases tommorow and a peak of 21k total cases in the UK.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

A leading public health expert has launched a devastating critique of the government’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK, saying it is too little too late, lacks transparency and fails to mobilise the public.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Total tested positives I presume you mean?

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

That's not bad then.  What's all the fuss about?

Originally Posted by: John p 

Should add this is 'just for fun' (not really the best phrasing but can't think of any other).

Don't base any decisions on the results of my model.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

All Foreign school trips WILL be cancelled.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 Could be wrong, the underlying assumption is a roughly linear reduction in contact over time. If that assumption is not true (because not enough action is taken) then there will be more cases.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I think your model is 'complacent'. (a linear misfit if you want of a distribution that is unlikely to remain ~linear)

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 Wanted to keep contact reduction roughly linear otherwise there are just too many parameters and you end up with the 'october pattern index' hindcasting problem.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The reality of this is fairly simple....

We have reported infections (a known number) and actual infections (an unknown number).

Given the research now appearing, transmission happens very readily and the virus passes even before symptoms.

Because of this, the actual infection rate is likely to be a magnitude or 2 higher than the reported number so the horse has bolted and in fairness, there was very little that could have been done to prevent it. Closing borders would probably only have delayed the inevitable.

As an epidemic / pandemic was probably unavoidable, I think on balance the current response has been appropriate so whilst it is easy to be critical, we also need to be practical.

Originally Posted by: Roonie