For a start to have snow chances you need the preciptation in the first place and that is the point, there have been hardly any showers, the Irish Sea has been a convective dead zone.
Matt Hugo on Twitter says he has found it strange how quiet the Irish Sea has been in terms of convection.
Irish sea is always less favourable for the lake effect.
SSTs are colder, airmass is warmer, fetch is shorter, moisture content is lower.
The Irish sea did have a lake effect today over the Pennine chain. The lake effect doesn't always give showers right at the coast, sometimes the buoyancy isn't quite enough and the mountains are needed for that little extra boost.
But yeh, Irish sea is pretty bad for convection. The cheshire gap is sometimes okay but keep this in mind:
- North westerly winds mean a much longer fetch
- North westerly winds are also often much colder
- The cheshire gap is a convergence zone which provides an additional boost to the convection
To be honest this seems fairly normal for a returning maritime long fetch westerly. Ireland and Scotland gets plastered and England/Wales gets the crumbs.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.