I've kicked the thread of you Simon (GW) just fill it in when you're ready.

Someone else already started a Feb one below

One of them needs deleting / locking to avoid duplication

Someone else already started a Feb one below

One of them needs deleting / locking to avoid duplication

It looks as though that thread has now been deleted so fair enough, I am happy enough to go with this one instead.

However, I must stress that this thread wasn't there when I started the other one. At that time, no-one else had started this thread either at that time and I felt that I was acting in very good faith by doing so, just in the same way in which I can easily start a daily CC thread for any particular day if there isn't already one there for that same day.

In those instances, that would then become that day's official CC thread and I had thought that the same thing would have happened with the now deleted CET thread with that as a result, becoming this month's official CET thread. Sadly though, the fact that this hasn't happened means that the mods who help to run these forums clearly don't want the monthly CET threads to be treated in this regard, in the same manner as the likes of the daily CC threads.

Obviously, it is Brian and his team of mods who run these forums, so I'm not going to get in the way of that in any way. This means that I will accept any decision which is taken by a mod on this forum, but I will stresss that as a forum user, this is an action which I am very strongly, not happy about because I very strongly believe that my now deleted CET thread for this month should have been this month's official CET thread as a result of that one, having been the first one to have been created for this month.

As a result of that, I therefore hope that Hungry Tiger will at the very least, apologise for these actions which he took as regards to this particular thread, especially as this means that I will not be making any more attempts in future to start a monthly CET thread if there isn't already one in place for that particular month.

Is there a competition this month?

Metcheck                    8.60c.     Anomaly       4.0c.

Netweather                 9.35c,     Anomaly       5.6c.

Peasedown St John      8.8c.       Anomaly       1.2c.        

Is there a competition this month?

Yes Duncan there is. I had already posted in the thread that's since been deleted, but I have sent my guess in.

GW's a bit poorly & will be back when he's better, which will hopefully be soon.

Shouldn't stop anyone from sending him their predictions though

No Update From Met Office Hadley.   .....

Metcheck              8.63c.        Anomaly      4.43c.

Netweather           9.23c.        Anomaly      5.04c.

Peasedown St John    9.9c.     Anomaly    2.3c. 

No Update From Met Office Hadley.   .....

There is if you know where to look.

Currently 8.58C (+4.32C) to the 2nd.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2020

 

It looks as though that thread has now been deleted so fair enough, I am happy enough to go with this one instead.

However, I must stress that this thread wasn't there when I started the other one. At that time, no-one else had started this thread either at that time and I felt that I was acting in very good faith by doing so, just in the same way in which I can easily start a daily CC thread for any particular day if there isn't already one there for that same day.

In those instances, that would then become that day's official CC thread and I had thought that the same thing would have happened with the now deleted CET thread with that as a result, becoming this month's official CET thread. Sadly though, the fact that this hasn't happened means that the mods who help to run these forums clearly don't want the monthly CET threads to be treated in this regard, in the same manner as the likes of the daily CC threads.

Obviously, it is Brian and his team of mods who run these forums, so I'm not going to get in the way of that in any way. This means that I will accept any decision which is taken by a mod on this forum, but I will stresss that as a forum user, this is an action which I am very strongly, not happy about because I very strongly believe that my now deleted CET thread for this month should have been this month's official CET thread as a result of that one, having been the first one to have been created for this month.

As a result of that, I therefore hope that Hungry Tiger will at the very least, apologise for these actions which he took as regards to this particular thread, especially as this means that I will not be making any more attempts in future to start a monthly CET thread if there isn't already one in place for that particular month.

 

My sincere apologies John. I loked at the timing of my thread and yours - there wasn't a lot in it. However, the reason I deleted yours and kept mine was due to the fact that I had already Pm'd GW (Simon) and told him that I was commencing the thread on his behalf - So thats why I kept it. If i hadn't already done that I'd have kept yours. Sorry for that - No offence meant at all.  

 

My sincere apologies John. I loked at the timing of my thread and yours - there wasn't a lot in it. However, the reason I deleted yours and kept mine was due to the fact that I had already Pm'd GW (Simon) and told him that I was commencing the thread on his behalf - So thats why I kept it. If i hadn't already done that I'd have kept yours. Sorry for that - No offence meant at all.  

The main thing is that GW is OK and gets better soon. Who creates which thread is a very minor point to be honest.

 

My sincere apologies John. I loked at the timing of my thread and yours - there wasn't a lot in it. However, the reason I deleted yours and kept mine was due to the fact that I had already Pm'd GW (Simon) and told him that I was commencing the thread on his behalf - So thats why I kept it. If i hadn't already done that I'd have kept yours. Sorry for that - No offence meant at all.  

No problems, and apology accepted.

Met Office Hadley           8.24c      Anomaly     3.91c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                        7.85c      Anomaly      3.63c

Netweather                     8.82c      Anomaly      4.63cc

Peasedown St John        9.5c        Anomaly      1.9c.    

This winter's extreme mildness has really skewed my perception. I was feeling some concern over how 'cold' some of the days look within the next week or so, but having done a rough estimate using the GFS 06z, all they look to do is bring the CET down to near 6.0*C as of 12th.

For you see, bar one or two exceptions, the modelled temps are not actually cold at all (excepting how it will feel in the wind!). Mostly near-average.

10-16 day range currently has yet another anomalously strong Euro high being indicated by ensemble modelling.

The GFS 06z fits that theme... and the impact on the CET estimate is striking; up into the low 7s as of 20th.

Uncertainty over whether an MJO event will emerge and cross the Pacific, setting up a colder final week or so to the month, was the only reason I didn't go for a CET in the 7s this month (6s instead).

I don't know how we're running for the winter overall. I do believe though it's in excess of 6.0C overall so far.

Its 6.77C to beat - that's a hard ask that one.

 

There is if you know where to look.

Currently 8.58C (+4.32C) to the 2nd.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2020

What do all those numbers mean. They don't make any sense. 

 

What do all those numbers mean. They don't make any sense. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2020

Yes they do. The majority of numbers shown represent days in months not yet measured (ie in the future); look top left: January! And a little bit of February. The rest are place holders.

Met Office Hadley           7.73c.        Anomaly      3.44c.   Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                        7.45c         Anomaly      3.25c

Netweather                     8.25c         Anomaly      4.06c

Peasedown St John        8.8c        Anomaly        1.2c.

Met Office Hadley           7.73c.        Anomaly      3.44c.   Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                        7.45c         Anomaly      3.25c

Netweather                     8.25c         Anomaly      4.06c

Peasedown St John        8.8c        Anomaly        1.2c.

Phew - but it seems very likely. Nights this winter in many resopects are just not cold at all. Many nights I've had the temperature in excess of 5C and in some cases in double figures.

This winter is just like an extension of autumn.

I had frost on my car this morning