Yes I suspect it will be gone in a couple of hours.

Correct. The same outlier (dark blue member) goes mental on the pressure graph later on - an unnatural evolution and highly unlikely to be a trend setter: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

Plagiarism and off topic? 

Met Office update Cassley, Sutherland 16.8c at  3 am. Completely bonkers.

Maybe I should of specified my ‘selective’ memory 😉 - I am referring to the sort of Synoptics that deliver a ‘prolonged’ easterly spell not a three day wonder. The sort of spell - dry a lot of the time - but consecutive sub zero days that create icicles longer than my little finger. 

More of the same this morning.

Some very high temperatures continue to look possible to the lee of high ground in the NE before and after the notable brief arctic incursion circa 4th January. Conversely, some very cold overnight minima for much of England next week possible too after the arctic incursion gets trapped under the inversion...worth keeping an eye for faux cold.

P1 on the GEFS suite this morning, albeit an absolute cold outlier, demonstrates just how quickly things can change.

It goes to show that all that is needed is the displacement of the PV and not its obliteration to deliver UK cold.

Getting the PV displaced southwards is a completely different matter however !

Have a good day everyone. 

high more dominant this run. Hopefully get some spring sunshine

Or it means a booming UK wine industry and we can start growing oranges and stuff to undercut the EU. Bring it on

Now control has gone westerly so completely different. 

For 7th Jan - This is an exceptionally mild Europe and Western Russia:

Winds coming from the canaries and Azores.

I really don't think it can get much worse if you want cold and snow? At this chart you're looking at 2,000 miles of HP aren't you? Furthermore look at temperatures. Thought the N. Hemisphere view shows the extent of this mild weather. You have to go to the east of Urals to experience temperatures well below freezing. Other than that many parts are well above or down to freezing and best. Even parts of Scandinavia are +3-6c. Remarkable really! - If this comes about. Classic summer chart though. Just terrible winter one.

Lets ditch the chase for snow..its rare in any case and generally reserved for later in January / February.

In the mean time we should be looking to enjoy some wonderful winter warmth (in places), the ceasing of the deluge, sunnier days and potentially some very seasonal frosts next week.

My hunch is that high pressure will get sucked towards Greeny from mid January pushing a very well developed PV deep into Scandinavia and then Eastern Europe, thus opening up the gate to a very cold arctic outbreak as a result. 

Lots to enjoy before all that though.... 

Moscow had its warmest Xmas Eve on record with a temp of 8C.

Melted all the snow.

Yes friend near Yaroslavl N.E Moscow said it was 8c with light drizzle on Xmas even - almost as bad as England. He had never seen it so warm and wet in Moscow and he is a MUSCKAVITE. There has only been snow showers and sleet or a minor dusting that has not lasted more than a day in Moscow so far this winter - and it's almost January.

06z GEFS ENS have trended a round 1c colder than in the 00z run for mid to end, also we have a few colder runs now and lost a few of thos mild +10c @ 850hpa towards the end of run- It seems drier each run but still a long way to go? Can this HP build further north into Svalbard Iceland and then Greenland and eventually become HLB? We shall see? Hope this will be a start.

Indeed. I almost posted the same comment last night, as it was obvious that Four was missing the point. The reason I didn't bother is that Four consistently misses the point when there's any whiff of Voldemort in the discussions.

GEFS 06z looks consistent with recent updates. Cooler incursion later in the week continues to be shown and in the northern half of the UK it may provide some interest. Otherwise it is lipstick on a pig for cold weather fans.

The GEFS however when viewed in detail offer quite some hope of a change with high pressure retrogression to some decent areas in about half the runs. All out in FI at present.

Martin

At a glance I would say 4 or 5 are conducive to a colder period by 384. I stand by my comment. Lipstick on a pig. However, things could change quickly and if they do I will be happy to acknowledge that.

gg

Four has a frighteningly wreckless attitude with regard to the climate warming emergency but that's not for this thread.

Although the uppers continue to un-impress from deep wintry potential perspective the surface temperatures down here in the SE will certainly feel like proper winter courtesy of cold air trapped under an inversion next week. 

Exactly like March 2018.. sever day's of sub zero maxes, icicles, and even the sea freezing on the IOW.