No surprise here, and this is already starting to confirm that once the upcoming milder weather sets in, that could well then be it for our winter which is just typical of our weather here in the UK.

 

ROFL. Another 'winter is over' post and we're still over a week from the start of winter.

The mild weather hasn't even set in yet; the ECM 30-dayer isn't gospel and in the reliable timeframe there is no sustained mild weather.

Here's the ECM 00z ensemble for London, showing growing support for a cold snap before the signals become mixed again.

 

 

 

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Today's ECM30 shows very mild conditions persisting for much of the next month. I'd be amazed if the Met Office monthly update today overrides that guidance, unless it was signed off before the latest run.

And we know how reliable they are lol....

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No surprise here, and this is already starting to confirm that once the upcoming milder weather sets in, that could well then be it for our winter which is just typical of our weather here in the UK.

 

Of course you are kidding 

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Of course you are kidding 

So? - Winter is over??

Meanwhile from +192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=1&mode=7

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Just to contrast:

Both models coun't be more different if they tried to:

GFS for day 10: @ 240z

ECM for day 10 @ 240z:

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“Are you Shropshire in disguise, la la la, la laa....”

Just to contrast:

Both models coun't be more different if they tried to:

GFS for day 10: @ 240z

ECM for day 10 @ 240z:

 

The 12z GFS an d ECM will be one to watch and see if this northerly outbreak will continue - or will it be the case when this time around the GFS shows the northerly yet the ECM shows southerly wind and both models flip yet again? Time will tell!?

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Today's ECM30 shows very mild conditions persisting for much of the next month. I'd be amazed if the Met Office monthly update today overrides that guidance, unless it was signed off before the latest run.

The latest Met Office update suggests an increased risk of colder and wintry conditions. The opposite of what I suggested after looking at the ECM30.

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Just to contrast:

Both models coun't be more different if they tried to:

GFS for day 10: @ 240z

ECM for day 10 @ 240z:

Our experiences from other recent years though shows us that when there has been a lot of uncertainty in the model output, it has usually always been the milder scenarios which have ended up actually happening in the end, whereas I don't recall there being all that many instances during these years when it is the colder scenarios which have ended up happening.

For now at least, I am therefore not really seeing anything to suggest that this will change during this winter and it's not just the ECM 30 day outlook which is going for a milder period ahead as both the JMA and the CFS appear to be agreeing with that just now to a certain extent.

 

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^^ Yes it’s going to turn much milder for December,as all the seasonal models are so accurate.You only have to look at last winter and see how they performed to confirm that to be true 🙄🤣

Looking like a better run - zippy low by Azores helps

 

For now at least, I am therefore not really seeing anything to suggest that this will change during this winter and it's not just the ECM 30 day outlook which is going for a milder period ahead as both the JMA and the CFS appear to be agreeing with that just now to a certain extent.

 

You're quite entitled to place your faith in seasonal models, you are not alone in that respect 

You should know though that they're about as useful as the Daily Express in correctly predicting the weather months ahead 

As others have said, to write off the entire winter based on a few mild seasonal model output is madness and not what is needed for this thread 

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You're quite entitled to place your faith in seasonal models, you are not alone in that respect 

You should know though that they're about as useful as the Daily Express in correctly predicting the weather months ahead 

As others have said, to write off the entire winter based on a few mild seasonal model output is madness and not what is needed for this thread 

God Bless The Daily Express!!

 

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No surprise here, and this is already starting to confirm that once the upcoming milder weather sets in, that could well then be it for our winter which is just typical of our weather here in the UK.

 

Hmmm, jumping the gun a bit there methinks, John.

Have you seen today's MetO update?

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need to keep a close eye on the cold air to the north... this has crept further and further south on each run, could have a real impact if those LPs move in

 

Doesnt quite get there on this run, but its defo one to watch

 

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So what will it be, a singular theme of a mild HP bomb for the south lasting all December or a continuation of the cooler and unsettled theme with a cold shot from the north followed by any number of options - Some of which could prove tasty? The ECM30 was so steadfastly accurate last winter that I’m sure it’s into something 🤣🤣🤣 or then again perhaps not.....

So what will it be, a singular theme of a mild HP bomb for the south lasting all December or a continuation of the cooler and unsettled theme with a cold shot from the north followed by any number of options - Some of which could prove tasty? The ECM30 was so steadfastly accurate last winter that I’m sure it’s into something 🤣🤣🤣 or then again perhaps not.....

Given it accuracy last winter (), I for one will not be taking anything that the ECM 30-day forecasts come up with for the coming winter as being set in stone.

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So what will it be, a singular theme of a mild HP bomb for the south lasting all December or a continuation of the cooler and unsettled theme with a cold shot from the north followed by any number of options - Some of which could prove tasty? The ECM30 was so steadfastly accurate last winter that I’m sure it’s into something 🤣🤣🤣 or then again perhaps not.....

 Based on last year any really mild weather shown will eventually appear, in spring. As you say though lots of options around, both mild and cold, in the current output.

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I've got a sleet symbol on the BBC forecast for MBY for Monday 

 

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I've got a sleet symbol on the BBC forecast for MBY for Monday 

 

 

Steady now lol 🤣🤣

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