It has been suggested that it would be a good idea to put this in its own thread so we can keep it separate from the ongoing commentary on how the January CET is progressing.
In addition to the monthly CET competition (which has its own annual element) we are also this year running a separate competition to predict what the CET for the whole of 2011 will be. Details of the monthly competition can be found in the January CET thread. I should point out there are no prizes for these competitions (other than the kudos of beating your fellow posters) they are just for fun.
For the annual CET competition you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2011. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions.
More details on what constitutes the CET area can be found about half way down the page at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/about/archives.html
To enter the competition all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2011 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we only have one winner at the end of the year.
Please therefore pick a figure not already selected. Below is a table showing all the predictions so far at the time of this post (but not including any subsequent predictions below so please check these as well). In the table each colour simply represents successive ranges of 0.25C above or below the long run mean in green and has no other significance.
To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (red line) and a 10 year moving average (purple line).
The competition will be open for entries until the end of 9 January (this Sunday).
We will monitor how the annual CET is progressing throughout the year.
I have now added in my prediction which is 9.42C.
FINAL TABLE - 66 ENTRIES
Edited by user
27 December 2011 12:56:22
|
Reason: Stickying