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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2019 14:04:45


And then, just when I think the models are aligning on a settled and pleasant end to August (I'm int' Yaaarksher Dales last week of Aug), they now begin to diverge and suggest more unsettled crap.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


This morning they were suggesting on BBC Breakfast that it would be fine moving towards the Bank Holiday weekend. That's all disappeared now of course, on this lunchtime's forecast it was a 'temporary respite' in the middle of next week, nothing more. So that's that one gone then. I do wonder sometimes why we even bother with a third summer month when it's just going to end up like October. Why not just have 5 autumn months, August through to December?


Pouring with rain here of course as it has been most of the day but has got especially bad this afternoon. Roll on winter that's all I can say, can't wait to see the back of this miserable 'fag end' of a summer.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Saint Snow
16 August 2019 14:09:51


 


This morning they were suggesting on BBC Breakfast that it would be fine moving towards the Bank Holiday weekend. That's all disappeared now of course, on this lunchtime's forecast it was a 'temporary respite' in the middle of next week, nothing more. So that's that one gone then. I do wonder sometimes why we even bother with a third summer month when it's just going to end up like October. Why not just have 5 autumn months, August through to December?


Pouring with rain here of course as it has been most of the day but has got especially bad this afternoon. Roll on winter that's all I can say, can't wait to see the back of this miserable 'fag end' of a summer.


Originally Posted by: Col 


 


Two odd things:


Augusts never used to be this bad; in fact, they were always pretty much of a muchness with July (year on year variation notwithstanding). 


September is more often than not a fine month. Temps aside, it's been a better month than August for many of the past dozen or so years.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Arcus
16 August 2019 14:41:21


And then, just when I think the models are aligning on a settled and pleasant end to August (I'm int' Yaaarksher Dales last week of Aug), they now begin to diverge and suggest more unsettled crap.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


My have my sympathies. Standing in a field in Bramham at the end of next week wasn't looking too bad before recent model runs. Now it's decidedly dicey. I have all my eggs in UKMO's basket right now (until the 12zs come out).


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
lanky
16 August 2019 16:00:43


This summer reminds me at times in terms of rainfall of a combination of summer 2007 for intensity and 2012 for prolongedness.


Provisional rainfall figures of 182mm for 17th July-14th August is just ridiculous!


Already over 300mm of rainfall for this summer up to the 14th August and there was a 3 week period in the middle when only about 8mm fell!


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


I suppose this highlights a slight problem with the Summer Index you publish (and of which I am a fan !)


The index has actually gone up between July 15 and Aug 15 from 185 to 195 and I suspect this is because the very high temperatures in the last week in July have had such a huge effect on the summer average max temp (even though it was only 1 week) that it has more than cancelled out all the wet days in the last month


Without getting into a much  more complex algorithm, I cannot see an easy answer to that (and it doesn't happen very often luckily)


 


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Saint Snow
16 August 2019 16:09:57


I suppose this highlights a slight problem with the Summer Index you publish (and of which I am a fan !)


The index has actually gone up between July 15 and Aug 15 from 185 to 195 and I suspect this is because the very high temperatures in the last week in July have had such a huge effect on the summer average max temp (even though it was only 1 week) that it has more than cancelled out all the wet days in the last month


Without getting into a much  more complex algorithm, I cannot see an easy answer to that (and it doesn't happen very often luckily)


Originally Posted by: lanky 


 


In that period, though, there weren't that many days with rain, and a fair bit of sun. 


As you say, it's the limitations of using rain quantities to gauge how good a summer is, when that rain typically fell in relatively short and heavy bursts.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Arcus
16 August 2019 16:17:34

See? Bit of a moan, and the 12zs look better already. 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2019 17:01:42


In that period, though, there weren't that many days with rain, and a fair bit of sun. 


As you say, it's the limitations of using rain quantities to gauge how good a summer is, when that rain typically fell in relatively short and heavy bursts.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

But also, as you said yourself, Kev’s summer index has been inflated by the temperatures throughout July.  You can get higher than average temps, but lower than average sunshine and the stats would show it as average overall.  Stats are great for some things and I love Kev’s index but sometimes human accounts are better for clarity. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2019 17:14:25
I’ve been thinking about changing my E&W summer index from its current model (equal weighting to sunshine, rain and temperature) to one that gives extra weighting to sunshine hours. Ultimately, sunshine and blue sky are what make a summer.

This summer (even late July) has been decidedly meh in the sunshine stakes. Last year was unusually sunny from spring to autumn and we all felt it.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
richardabdn
16 August 2019 18:00:44

One of the main disadvantages of Summer Indices are they fail to take into account the 'Weekend Curse'. So often we see fine weather restricted to weekdays and the weekends are awful which is useless to those of us who work regular hours. This is purely a summer phenomenon. July 2019 and August 2018 were perfect examples of that. Seemed fairly average/mediocre on paper but because of the 'Weekend Curse' felt like utter garbage.


This month has been utter garbage no matter how you look at it. Pretty much zero decent weather whatsoever. Today was another vile day - drizzled all day long for a total of 1.4mm and this is what we are seeing constantly. Day after day of November like drizzle and light rain that is not adding up to much but is just completely writing off the summer. Intense downpours and thunder would produce higher rain totals but would, at least, feel more like summer than this grim rubbish.


10 days in a row of measurable rainfall and no end in sight so could potentially even beat the ridiculous stretch of 14 consecutive rain days from 21st June to 4th July 2012 which is the longest I have recorded in summer over the past 14 years. If that were to happen it would assure this summers place as one of the most dismally unsettled of all time. Only the very sunny second half of June has saved it from being exceptionally dull as well like so many since 2007.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
lanky
16 August 2019 21:01:34


One of the main disadvantages of Summer Indices are they fail to take into account the 'Weekend Curse'. So often we see fine weather restricted to weekdays and the weekends are awful which is useless to those of us who work regular hours. This is purely a summer phenomenon. July 2019 and August 2018 were perfect examples of that. Seemed fairly average/mediocre on paper but because of the 'Weekend Curse' felt like utter garbage.


This month has been utter garbage no matter how you look at it. Pretty much zero decent weather whatsoever. Today was another vile day - drizzled all day long for a total of 1.4mm and this is what we are seeing constantly. Day after day of November like drizzle and light rain that is not adding up to much but is just completely writing off the summer. Intense downpours and thunder would produce higher rain totals but would, at least, feel more like summer than this grim rubbish.


10 days in a row of measurable rainfall and no end in sight so could potentially even beat the ridiculous stretch of 14 consecutive rain days from 21st June to 4th July 2012 which is the longest I have recorded in summer over the past 14 years. If that were to happen it would assure this summers place as one of the most dismally unsettled of all time. Only the very sunny second half of June has saved it from being exceptionally dull as well like so many since 2007.


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.


If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
17 August 2019 04:42:12


 


I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.


If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.


Originally Posted by: lanky 


The thing with the so-called 'weekend curse' is we simply notice more when poor weather coincides with the weekend. After a fine week on Friday evening cloud starts spilling in heralding a wet Saturday - Typical, you think to yourself, just in time for the weekend! But nobody notices this happening on a Tuesday night before a wet Wednesday. It would be interesting for me to have a look at my own records to see if the weekend weather really is any worse on average than during the week and hopefully disprove the weekend curse, well for my area at least. I don't think you'll ever convince Richard though!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 August 2019 05:33:14

The weekend curse is a valid point when it comes to human perception, which is more about the amount of usable weather we get in our free time!  It hasn’t really applied to me as I work short hours in the summer and have had time to enjoy many weekdays in the garden this year hence, it’s been a good summer for me.  Which is probably why human experience can be at odds with stats.  


On the other hand, stats don’t change once they’ve been recorded, whereas memory is unreliable.  When I were a lass, summers were sunnier and winters were snowier!  Actually, they weren’t but I remember the odd special occasion when the weather sticks in my mind and that clouds my judgement.  


The most extreme weather has been during my adult life, not my childhood.  In June 2007, the local river flooded for the first time in my life.  We had the heaviest and longest lasting snow in 2010, although I experienced the sixties winters.  Summer 2018 was one of the best, although I experienced 1976 and 1959.  July 25th 2019 broke temperature records here and this summer will go down in my memory as a very good one because there were so many usable days. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
KevBrads1
17 August 2019 05:38:01
Manchester Summer Indices

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
2019 192 (up to 16th August)
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1902 195
1915 196
1981 196
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1952 198
2000 198
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Crepuscular Ray
17 August 2019 07:45:18
And it's raining yet again here in Wharfedale. Although we get some sunshine, usually afternoons, I don't think we've had a sunny start to a day this month and only 2 dry days out of 17!! Rainfall totals around these parts are now over 150mm. August is fast becoming my least favourite month!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
richardabdn
17 August 2019 13:48:49


 


I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.


If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


No it's not just perception. It is a measured fact that the summer weekends see worse weather than weekdays. Only two years since 2007 - 2015 and 2017 - have seen sunnier weekend weather than weekdays and in several of the summers the difference has been considerable.


Here are my records from 2007:


Year, Weekday sun, Weekend sun, overall sun



















































































20074.302.633.83
20084.794.044.57
20095.734.875.49
20104.934.524.82
20114.783.934.54
20123.413.313.38
20136.266.116.22
20145.724.765.44
20155.225.445.28
20164.834.534.74
20174.725.705.00
20186.955.946.66
20195.905.035.63

It doesn't average out over time as there has been an 11% difference in daily sunshine average between weekend and weekday over the 13 year period (5.18 v 4.68). More than backs up my frequent complaints about having to sit in a stifling office when it's sunny outside only to wake up to grim overcast come the weekend. Not so much of a difference with rainfall.


As for today, after a promising start it's turned to crap again and I just got soaked by a shower. No 'Weekend Curse' this month as it's just dreadful all the time.  11 days in a row of this now 


 


 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
ARTzeman
17 August 2019 16:15:24

I don't like this Moaning and gloating thread. thread. Haven't had much chance to do any mooning with all the rain of late.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
roadrunnerajn
17 August 2019 17:20:37
A lovely day on the Lizard Pilot Gig rowing. Early cloud gave way to blue sky and the cove at Cadgwith was sheltered from the fresh breeze.
What a change a day makes.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
johncs2016
17 August 2019 17:51:48


I don't like this Moaning and gloating thread. thread. Haven't had much chance to do any mooning with all the rain of late.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Well, it won't be long now before it will be time to start the autumn moaning thread (I see that Netweather have already started their autumn moaning thread, having done so back in July). Once that it comes to that time, that would probably just be a moaning thread as I would expect there to be too many reasons for gloating there.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Whether Idle
17 August 2019 18:18:23

Another very useable day today.  Dry thus far.


and August to date -


Mean max - 22.4


overall mean 18.2 (+0.5c)


Sunshine (poor) 100hrs


Rain - 38mm 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Saint Snow
17 August 2019 21:18:07

Nice day, with only a few spots of rain this morning.


Even managed a BBQ tonight.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
KevBrads1
18 August 2019 05:36:14

17th July-16th August 2019: provisionally 201mm for the region. This wet spell all started on the 17th July


How does that compare to 31 day calendar months for the region?


Wettest January on record: 227.8mm in 1928


Wettest March on record: 178.3 mm in 1981


Wettest May on record: 141.2mm in  1924


Wettest July on record: 171.1mm in 1988


Wettest August on record: 238.4mm in  1956


Wettest October on record: 233.7 mm in 1967


Wettest December on record: 271.6mm in  2015


So that period is up there amongst the wettest spells ever recorded during summer.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
KevBrads1
20 August 2019 05:20:21

Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
2019 191 (up to 19th August)
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1902 195
1915 196
1981 196
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1952 198
2000 198
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
richardabdn
20 August 2019 18:13:14

This has to be up there with the most stupefyingly boring and non-descript months of all time. It's utterly dire - nothing of interest is happening and it's not at all pleasant.


It's just day after day of cloudy skies, moderate temperatures and nuisance value rain. It's not reached 22C, there's been one night below 8C, no day has recorded 12 hours of sun and there has been just 38.6mm rain but only four completely dry days.


The 'blandification' of the climate intensifies 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
LeedsLad123
20 August 2019 20:10:23

Not been that bad here really over the past week - a couple of days were washouts but the rest were decent with only a few showers and sunny spells with temperatures of 19-20C which is a bit below average but could be worse. Rainfall is sitting at around 43-44mm here, which isn’t bad at all when the LTA for August here is 58mm. 


This month should finish comfortably warmer than average based on the current warm output. Not dissimilar to last August really but probably cloudier. Even warm summer months in recent years have tended to be rather cloudy.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
andy-manc
21 August 2019 15:11:50

Just had our daily cloud burst. It's become part of the summer really. No matter what the forecast is for the day, there will always be at least one spell of rain

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