Thank you for that heart warming reassurance. I needed that.

I take GWs notes as guidance that's all. Just information in order to help you pick a figure. Let's face it beyond 1-2 weeks out you're pretty much on your own anyway. A lot of work must go into producing all that and I'm sure it is appreciated so it will be a shame to see it go.

I am not actually going to reduce the information that I provide, it is merely the timing of when it will get posted. It does mean potentially a bit more work for you guys in thinking about your predictions. But I figure that if we are going to have a competition then there is no need for me to give you the benefit (or indeed misinformation if you think my analysis is rubbish!) of my thought process in advance of making the predictions. What I will do is post my analysis after all the predictions are in.

I will still provide the following when I initially open the thread:

• Historic graph of the CET for the month


• Historic CET averages for the month


• Recent CET trends for the month


• Met Office contingency planners forecast


• Current model ensemble charts


• Any other relevant publicly available information

What I won't post until after the predictions are in is my forward looking CET tracker and my analogues analysis.

So the signs are still there (from the ECM at least) for a significant warm up for the second half of the month. I still think there is a good chance that we will make it to 15C (my prediction) by the end of the month.

Currently the CET stands at a miserable 12.84C. A slight fall in the next couple of days to around 12.75C. Then it just sticks at this figure until next week when it potentially starts rising strongly. 

Latest estimate is 14.51C by the 25th. There is a lot of uncertainty in the models at the moment. So I tend to agree with the recent post from James (Stormchaser) that the final position by the end off the month could anything from 14.5C to 15.5C. It could even go lower than 14.5C if we get a reload of cool winds due to northern blocking.

So the signs are still there (from the ECM at least) for a significant warm up for the second half of the month. I still think there is a good chance that we will make it to 15C (my prediction) by the end of the month.

Currently the CET stands at a miserable 12.84C. A slight fall in the next couple of days to around 12.75C. Then it just sticks at this figure until next week when it potentially starts rising strongly. 

Latest estimate is 14.51C by the 25th. There is a lot of uncertainty in the models at the moment. So I tend to agree with the recent post from James (Stormchaser) that the final position by the end off the month could anything from 14.5C to 15.5C. It could even go lower than 14.5C if we get a reload of cool winds due to northern blocking.

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I hope that this actually comes off and if it does, this will mean that my own prediction for this month will suddenly be looking not so bad after all.

 

I am not actually going to reduce the information that I provide, it is merely the timing of when it will get posted. It does mean potentially a bit more work for you guys in thinking about your predictions. But I figure that if we are going to have a competition then there is no need for me to give you the benefit (or indeed misinformation if you think my analysis is rubbish!) of my thought process in advance of making the predictions. What I will do is post my analysis after all the predictions are in.

I will still provide the following when I initially open the thread:

• Historic graph of the CET for the month


• Historic CET averages for the month


• Recent CET trends for the month


• Met Office contingency planners forecast


• Current model ensemble charts


• Any other relevant publicly available information

What I won't post until after the predictions are in is my forward looking CET tracker and my analogues analysis.

That's fair enough. I thought you were getting rid of everything.

Met Office Hadley          13.0c.       Anomaly    -0.5c.  Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                       13.24c      Anomaly    -0.90c

Netweather                    13.75c      Anomaly    -0.36c

My 10 Stations              13.6c.   Difference    -1.70c. 

 

I am not actually going to reduce the information that I provide, it is merely the timing of when it will get posted. It does mean potentially a bit more work for you guys in thinking about your predictions. But I figure that if we are going to have a competition then there is no need for me to give you the benefit (or indeed misinformation if you think my analysis is rubbish!) of my thought process in advance of making the predictions. What I will do is post my analysis after all the predictions are in.

I will still provide the following when I initially open the thread:

• Historic graph of the CET for the month


• Historic CET averages for the month


• Recent CET trends for the month


• Met Office contingency planners forecast


• Current model ensemble charts


• Any other relevant publicly available information

What I won't post until after the predictions are in is my forward looking CET tracker and my analogues analysis.

That all sounds very sensible to me. It's great to have all of that information and then decide whether to go with it or to go on your own hunch. 

Cheers :-)

Met Office Hadley          12.9c.       Anomaly        -0.7c.  Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                        13.11c      Anomaly         -1.64c

Netweather                     13.59c      Anomaly         -0.62c.

Mean Of My 10              13.55c     Difference     -1.78c.

Met Office Hadley         12.8c.   Anomaly    -0.8c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      13.02c  Anomaly    -1.13c

Netweather                   13.46c  Anomaly    -0.64c

Mean Of My 10            13.35c.    Difference   -1.98c.      

Met Office Hadley         12.8c.   Anomaly    -0.8c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      13.02c  Anomaly    -1.13c

Netweather                   13.46c  Anomaly    -0.64c

Mean Of My 10            13.35c.    Difference   -1.98c.      

This must surely have 'bottomed out' now. Let's just see how far it recovers!

Met Office Hadley         12.8c      Anomaly      -0.9c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                      13.03c     Anomaly       -1.12c 

Netweather                   13.47c     Anomaly       -063c

Mean of My 10 Stations   13.23c    Difference     -2.1c.              

Met Office Hadley         12.8c      Anomaly      -0.9c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                      13.03c     Anomaly       -1.12c 

Netweather                   13.47c     Anomaly       -063c

Mean of My 10 Stations   13.23c    Difference     -2.1c.              

Hopefully it’s bottomed at 12.8c and we’ll start to see a rise now. It’s certainly been less cold over the past two days. 

 Temperatures should be on the rise Tomorrow onwards.  

So... the low for Wed has adjusted to one that stay just weak and far south enough to minimise the warm air incursion, but just developed and far north enough to bring another spell of showery rain that we could really do without.

Just as with last week's system positioning pretty much optimally for low temps and widespread atmospheric moisture release via cooling, there is an inescapable sense of extremely hard luck for us Brits this June.

You see, our weather patterns are only guided on a broad scale by the various forcing mechanisms; the exact intensity and path of systems comes down to small-scale fluctuations of a chaotic nature. Chaos is closely tied to luck, hence the feeling of poor fortune.

This coming week could so easily have been warmer. Admittedly not drier with that, but a day or two in the mid-20s would at least have been something to smile about, while we await a more sustained improvement in conditions.

There are still signs of high pressure gaining the upper hand by next weekend from some models, but the track of the midweek low brings a lot of polar maritime air in, keeping temps unusually fresh for the time of year. The CET may struggle to make it into the 14s at this rate - something that seemed inconceivable when studying the various indications from modelling and climate theory in the last week of May.

2019 has so far been the year of failed long-signposted major pattern shifts. It really does appear that we've changed the very workings of the climate to something new that defies the old methods of anticipation. It's fascinating, but in a dark light.

Great post as ever SC.

One of the things I love about the weather in this country is just how unpredictable it is none of us saw how cool and wet this June would be neither did any of the Pros. A cet under 14c looks likely  now maybe even under 13c.  And also perhaps a record breakingly wet month as well.

Great post as ever SC.

One of the things I love about the weather in this country is just how unpredictable it is none of us saw how cool and wet this June would be neither did any of the Pros. A cet under 14c looks likely  now maybe even under 13c.  And also perhaps a record breakingly wet month as well.

 

 

Not everywhere has been really wet though just recently, as I have explained in a post which I submitted to the summer general discussion thread during this morning. For here ever since the middle of April 2018, we have never been able to get any sustained wet spell which lasts for over a week or so. Even during this week which is now ending, there has only been two days throughout the entire week where it has actually rained. We started this week in a dry spell, we are now ending this week in yet another dry spell and this week hasn't been all that much wetter than average overall here.

For where I live, our biggest issue has not been so much with the amount of rainfall which we had, as it has been with the fact that we experiencing some ridiculously cold daytime temperatures at times and more importantly, a chronic lack of sunshine during this month so far. We have only had two completely sunless days during this month so far but at the end of yesterday, we had only had just over a third of our average amount of sunshine for this month even though we have now reached the halfway point in this point.

During that time, there has only been one day which we can actually regard as being a decent, sunny day. As far as the temperatures are concerned though, it has been very much colder than average here. Even in this part of Scotland where I live, any given summer month would be expected to have at least one day within it where the temperature reaches or gets to above 20 or 21°C and yet, we have barely come even close to that during this month so far let alone actually reached those sorts of values.

Furthermore, we have had a number of days just recently where we have been struggling to even get into double figures. The result of this is that for here, our daytime maximum temperatures are currently running about 1.9°C colder than the 1981-2010 June average with our average temperatures running at around a degree colder than that  average which in turn, is more or less in line with the latest CET anomaly.

Met Office Hadley         12.9c.      Anomaly      -0.9c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                      13.02c      Anomaly      -1.13c

Netweather                   13.48c      Anomaly      -0.63c

Mean of my 10 stations    13.16c.  Difference    -2.17c.

Great post as ever SC.

One of the things I love about the weather in this country is just how unpredictable it is none of us saw how cool and wet this June would be neither did any of the Pros. A cet under 14c looks likely  now maybe even under 13c.  And also perhaps a record breakingly wet month as well.

 

Thanks - sadly I can't enjoy the unpredictability like I used to now that I've become one of those 'Pros'. One of the worst things about being involved in longer-range guidance is knowing so much about what could have been, when the reality is one of the least desirable outcomes.

During the final week of May, the following signals were at hand for June:

• Warm opening couple of days, then near-average remainder of week (for day + night combined)


• Slow-moving low near or over the UK for at least first half of 2nd week of month. Origin SE of the UK so movement through France more likely than across UK, with warm but showery conditions affecting much of England and Wales.


• Arctic blocking reducing for 2nd half of month, and NAO moving from negative to positive. Signs of slow-moving ridges across NW Europe; predominantly warm pattern for the UK. Some thundery interludes likely.

The way that low moved last week was truly exceptional. Historically, our poorest runs of June weather have come from the Atlantic, not mainland Europe. Even more extraordinary was how the low positioned such that it was able to draw cool maritime air off the Atlantic to mix into the very warm from Europe before any of it reached the UK - except briefly the far SE on the Tuesday. The more typical outcome would likely have left the CET somewhere in the 14s as of mid-month.

Now, looking forward, we're seeing the long-anticipated waning of Arctic blocking looking less and less convincing, and there's signs that the NAO will be equally 'disobedient'; the ensembles are now favouring a continued negative state overall.

A big factor behind the Arctic blocking and NAO issues is some tropical thunderstorm activity in the western Indian Ocean. This was expected to be outgunned by activity moving into the Pacific from the eastern Indian Ocean (i.e. the MJO) but instead it's of similar intensity, and a few days ago, it even gave rise to a rare June tropical cyclone that tracked close to the west of India. 

Such Indian Ocean sourced interference has been witnessed a couple of other times in the past couple of years, derailing the August heat and December cold last year.

Unfortunately, long-range modelling is currently very unreliable for tropical thunderstorm patterns, with even short-range predictions for just 3-5 days ahead often significantly wide of the mark. So there's no way to reliably anticipate when there's going to be interference that begins nearly a fortnight into month, like it has in June 2019.

Last week's unusual low behaviour pretty much ruled out a CET in the high 15s or above.

The failed positive NAO switch for 2nd half of June now has now stacked the odds against a CET higher than the mid-14s.

Any bets on a scorching July? 

 

Thanks - sadly I can't enjoy the unpredictability like I used to now that I've become one of those 'Pros'. One of the worst things about being involved in longer-range guidance is knowing so much about what could have been, when the reality is one of the least desirable outcomes.

During the final week of May, the following signals were at hand for June:

• Warm opening couple of days, then near-average remainder of week (for day + night combined)


• Slow-moving low near or over the UK for at least first half of 2nd week of month. Origin SE of the UK so movement through France more likely than across UK, with warm but showery conditions affecting much of England and Wales.


• Arctic blocking reducing for 2nd half of month, and NAO moving from negative to positive. Signs of slow-moving ridges across NW Europe; predominantly warm pattern for the UK. Some thundery interludes likely.

The way that low moved last week was truly exceptional. Historically, our poorest runs of June weather have come from the Atlantic, not mainland Europe. Even more extraordinary was how the low positioned such that it was able to draw cool maritime air off the Atlantic to mix into the very warm from Europe before any of it reached the UK - except briefly the far SE on the Tuesday. The more typical outcome would likely have left the CET somewhere in the 14s as of mid-month.

Now, looking forward, we're seeing the long-anticipated waning of Arctic blocking looking less and less convincing, and there's signs that the NAO will be equally 'disobedient'; the ensembles are now favouring a continued negative state overall.

 

A big factor behind the Arctic blocking and NAO issues is some tropical thunderstorm activity in the western Indian Ocean. This was expected to be outgunned by activity moving into the Pacific from the eastern Indian Ocean (i.e. the MJO) but instead it's of similar intensity, and a few days ago, it even gave rise to a rare June tropical cyclone that tracked close to the west of India. 

Such Indian Ocean sourced interference has been witnessed a couple of other times in the past couple of years, derailing the August heat and December cold last year.

Unfortunately, long-range modelling is currently very unreliable for tropical thunderstorm patterns, with even short-range predictions for just 3-5 days ahead often significantly wide of the mark. So there's no way to reliably anticipate when there's going to be interference that begins nearly a fortnight into month, like it has in June 2019.

Last week's unusual low behaviour pretty much ruled out a CET in the high 15s or above.

The failed positive NAO switch for 2nd half of June now has now stacked the odds against a CET higher than the mid-14s.

Any bets on a scorching July? 

Thank You Stormchaser. 

Your posts are always so informative.

Met Office Hadley          12.9c.      Anomaly      -0.9c Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                       13.15c     Anomaly      -0.99c

Netweather                    13.53c     Anomaly      -0.57c

Mean Of My 10 Stations   13.42c     Anomaly      -1.91c.