I must admit, I had a good chuckle upon seeing such non-committal numbers - but to be fair, there's a lack of strong signals to work with; ENSO near neutral to weak positive, the AMO kind of positive but not consistently, Atlantic and Caribbean SST anomalies on the positive side but not massively so for the most part.
Having said that, I'm not convinced that the weakly positive ENSO state, which has proven a bit 'shaky' in recent weeks, can force a significant increase in wind shear across the Atlantic TC development regions. Positive development region SSTs and the weakly positive AMO (which are related) could easily overcome that IMO, and as a result I sense the potential for an above average season, though not necessarily by a lot; maybe 2 or 3 more named storms, including 1 or 2 more hurricanes, than usual.
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