Cheers Art
From the estimated estimate of starting CET today (...), the latest two GFS runs (06z and 12z) have the CET wallowing around in the low 8s until 13th before it finally gets its act together and starts climbing with some gusto.
The 06z's generally warm pattern thereafter takes the CET up to very nearly the 11s by 22nd (so close to the LTA), while the 12z's warm to very warm pattern sends it soaring into the high 11s - a big enough climb that I suspect I'd prove to be too low with the final CET if things turned out that way.
It's been a striking turnaround after a couple of days of runs choosing to keep a cool to near-average flow from the NE to E as the predominant pattern. Still time for a swing back the other way but the trend warmer has been within expectations given the very powerful convectively coupled Kelvin wave propagating from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.
That CCKW has in fact exceeded what I anticipated, and looks to produce some suitably extreme amplification of the mid-high latitude weather patterns next week. Part of this will be a Spanish plume of intensity rarely seen in mid-May;
Not easy to resolve from the shading but I think some spots are hitting the mid-high 30s in Spain and Portugal there. More typical of a heatwave in mid-July than mid-May! A striking contrast to the east as well.
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