Spring on the way

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_141_2.png 

😎

I’m guessing 16C somewhere like the east central lowlands on that chart, with sunshine. The enthusiasm for some of the projected 850s should be tempered - the add 10deg rule isn’t always a good guide in winter setups.

In the meantime I’m still keeping options open so long as some of the deterministic and ensemble data keep the high elevated. A small change in upstream forcing could easily drag the high further North and open the door to the east.

So that means it's not going to happen then:

Just remarkable summer like charts - this would be almost 2 weeks of temperatures in the low to mid teens if this comes about:

Gobsmacked! 

This must be very boring for weather forecasters ...gosh!!

So this is the blocking in response to the SSW back in early Jan - only difference is that it's way too far south and we are on the milder side of the block if not warmer!

Incredible output next week I'm convinced we'll beat the February all time temp . 20c is there for the taking 

I'm not sure that even in Feb 1998, temps got as high as 20C that month. The 17/18C mark rings a bell with me but I don't think 20C was reached during that spell. Could be wrong about that though.

Oh dear about the cold cluster of ensembles as we head into Spring but was expected - meanwhile we have 10 to 14 days of very mild and dry weather!

The 19.7C was questionable back in 1998, however the 19.5C wasn't and that was the warmest since 1891 when 19.4C was reached 

True, but even a stopped clock is correct a couple of times a day.

Yes, looking like a continuation of the early start to spring. Day 10 ECM Op is perfection

Model output summary from mid next week:

surely it’s 

😎😎 

Hmmm colder members gaining support later on interesting.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0

March, zonal winds ease rapidly through spring, and tend to reverse to easterly in early April as the PV dissipates. Hence why the snow more likely at Easter than Xmas often rings true.

I just hope next winter the ec46 is consigned to the bin regardless of whether it is showing the next ice age or blowtorch.
To consistently show (over 2 months) strong euro trough with heights to the nw/n only for it to be the polar opposite is truely laughable. The met probably had a huge sigh of relief that many of the general public do not acess the ec46 or read the 30 dayer. The anomaly charts for January look very consistent to what the ec46 was showing which which to me shows how misleading they can be and should be viewed with extreme caution. They are after all pressure anomaly charts. February as I said is the polar opposite.
For me I think had this winter been -qbo with the ssw we could have had a January that we would have talked about for many a year.
If the MJO had gone into the cod we would of seen much greater downwelling,the reason being westerly winds in trop can not propagate into downwelling easterly winds (remember seeing this in a couple of strat papers I have read). Thus when +QBO (MJO forcing) waves in trop try amplifing into downwelling SSW easterly wind they cancel each other out. Outcome.... non verifing amped phase signal of MJO blocked by downward easterly winds and blocked downward propagation SSW by MJO led amped trop waves into lower strat.
Of course I could be talking a load of cobblers wh knows.
I see the models starting to toy with the the idea of a late cold snap first half of March. May be of some interest.

Hoping so. Too late for faux cold now.

Bring on the warmth 

Unfortunately it's not too late for proper cold; we remain, even in southern lowland Britain, at risk for at least the next 4 weeks, at least in theory.

GFS 18z Op retrogresses the high after T+240 and we end on the edge of a cold northerly. It's just one of the ways a benign springlike spell can go quickly back to winter.

If we again see the current FI morph into another HP with the 0c 850 hpa isotherm ongoing in its annual hike north ( average position) then we need a favourable position for said HP if we are to see cold allowed in for any sustained cold ( over 3 days?)

If we do just see H.P. again bossing the charts we could still see cold nights from a colder, less moist, feed?

For our March/April snow showers we need as LP with a long draw of P.M. off the top of Greenland otherwise our own lack of cold and the Atlantic leave us with an above marginal set up with only the tops seeing their last snow?

I'm on for a continuation of this same near Bartlett theme and on into a blazing spring ( when was the last of those?)

So,  both the Op and the parallel runs deliver retrogression and finish with a cold pattern established. GFSP more markedly:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

Bear in mind the average for *August* down here is 10C!

There'd probably be an inversion, but if there wasn't and if those 850s were to be reflected at the surface... the record would go.

How's this for an early season plume?  29th February 1960