In the Dutch ensembles ECM is going for the (admittedly not very beastly) easterly, but GFS is still not interested...

ECMWF Windrichting

GFS Windrichting

The continuing trend this morning is to drop heights to the NE in favour of blocking closer to the UK.

For those looking for a late taste of winter this is more encouraging rather than relying on a Euro/Sceuro/Scandi to align favourably before its inevitable slow and painful erosion by the northern arm of the jet.

A UK high will allow a fresh supply of arctic air to the places we need it..eg Scandinavia.

I'll be looking for retrogression to Greenland/Iceland now rather than pinning our hopes on a Scandi high scenario.

I note with interest there are finally some signs that the NAO will drop into more negative territory for the first time since the New Year...for those about to throw in the towel and roll that final dice there is hope.....look north rather than east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_78_2.png 

Beyond, it looks more settled but detail uncertain,

It’s not been a wretched winter for everyone  A number of areas have had at least one decent snowfall, anything more than that is a bonus. 

Not sure about that, tbh. I agree that next week does not look like being that cold, but beyond that there are enough suggestions of something more potentially interesting for winter fans in the output to keep me interested, at least for the time being.

IMO, the trend overall in FI in the past few days has IMO been a bit more positive. I know that FI can never be relied upon and if ever there was a season which has shown just how unreliable it is, it has been this winter and I don't mean deepest FI either. However, if there is eventually to be a change to a more notable cold spell later on, it will need to start from somewhere.

What I will add here is that I don't think what happens during the last couple of weeks of this month is, at the moment at least, the virtually nailed-on certainty that some members last week were saying they thought it would be.

Past 3 runs from the ECM ens

Tuesday looks to be the peak of the cooler air

Thereafter place your bets a big shift towards something milder this morning around the middle part of the month then dropping back closer to average towards the end of the run

00z yesterday

12z yesterday

00z today

IMO if you wanted an ideal chart for mid-February, bringing sunny cool days with overnight frost this would do nicely: day 10 ECM ensemble mean

Hi Neil

IMO, if there is one thing that this winter has shown very clearly, it is how difficult medium to long-range forecasting with the British weather still is, even with all the resources and up-to-the-minute technology that forecasters have at their disposal. I'm sure that if you spoke to any experienced forecaster, be they professional or amateur, they would tell you that when it comes to forecasting for more than a few days ahead in the UK, it pretty much comes down to educated guesswork.

The issue at hand is really the highly variable nature of the UK's weather. If we had a more stable and less erractic climate, then medium-long range forecasting would probably be somewhat less difficult.

An AH driven winter and a mild outlook sums it up for the foreseeable.

Every time I come back and check out the charts all I see is a huge plume of the AH either very close or over the UK.

It's been impossible to shift for any length of time this winter.

We are sort of in a col betwen the two.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif 

6z GFS into FI

definite uptick in the interest, foundations start fairly early as well. Perhaps GLOSEA isn’t as bad as some say 

Yes, interesting to see the massive scatter in the 06z GEFS runs from mid February. It may be that the initial Scandi formation is a false dawn in advance of something more potent in the shape of a GH later on.

It's not been as bad a winter here as I feared. Two snowfalls both sticking around for a few days - some decent frosts thrown in for good measure. Not bad for the modern winter. 

Yes at least we have all seen the snow and in January (a winter month) shame it wasn't in or over Xmas and shame we have not really had any HLB so far despite all longer range models output showing blocking. Given we have had a SSW, i think many (me included) did expect better.

It's become the "talk you down off the bridge" run.

If the GFS run did happen crazy amounts of snow away from South East would be fun to watch even missing out.
Will the theme of slow migration of heights to Greenland continue. I reckon it will and we could see some great charts that are unlikely to happen in line with this winter. Not long to find out....don’t get upset if it shows mild.

Yes, the HP positions itself further west which means the influence is more of a bartlett esque, than a continental beast.

Either way, not many weather fronts, if any.  Which should dry the land out a bit, combined with the stronger sun, Grass should start to grow faster, turning fields away from the mudfest they currently are by mine.

every cloud....