Who ordered the sub 510dam air? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_276_1.png 

You can order it? Why did no one tell me? I'd have ordered some weeks ago. 

See, still time for one last chase

I reckon either our HP blip will dwindle allowing a mild end to winter and start to spring, best in the South or retrogress to somewhere much more interesting and give us a late winter blast.

I'm planning on using the turbo trainer for next few weeks so bring on the cold option

It’s actually a takeaway order as the next GFS op run will no doubt take away the scenario. 

If only. That's what I call a northerly. Beautiful chart!

A very mild if not a warm Europe if this came off @ 219: - Have to go to northern Scandinavia to find temps at or below 0c.

I'm pretty much done with this winter. Late winter/early spring cold snaps do not interest me as they once may have. The sunshine today was quite strong and springlike and triggered in me an instinctive itch to get out into the garden and clip things. If it wasn't such a sludge pit, as there has been zero drying this winter, despite the low rainfal all seasonl, then I would have. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2403.gif 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html 

I don't know. You just get a feeling about the end of February. It's been a sod's law sort of winter so it will probably leave with a tongue poking out!

You could very well be right and I will be keeping one eye on it just in case.

Don't you just love it when you get a run where you can find two perts on  the 850's at almost the same time point that are 26C apart. Sums up this winter's models admirably. 

better than every run showing a sine wave above average. At least there is uncertainty and potential 

What is it with the model output this winter? There is no dressing it up, this has been the worst winter for the accuracy of the output of any NWP model since I have been following them via TWO for well over a decade. For this side of the Atlantic, the models have been utter rubbish - as rubbish as the actual weather experienced on the ground in the West Midlands - no snow and very few frosts.
We have had an excellent virtual winter at day ten, but nothing of note in the real weather! Bah humbug! But there needs to be a post mortem into why the NWP models have gone backwards 20 years in reliability this season.

We are now depending and hope casting currently low chances of coming to deliver.

A several day spell mild and springlike warmth is being predicted by the UKMO GFS and ECMWF Models, but we need Spring sunshine to make us enjoy it Lol.

Talking about GFS at 268-292 hours circa 12z run. and looking at the 12z ECMWF model output, looks all perfectly positioned for Azores High retrogressing to a Greenland High.

Then cold Northerly winds pushing south just like the doctor ordered!.

More days of careful analysis is recommended.

I don't think they have performed any worse, or any better, than in previous years. I think it is more down to expectations perhaps being a bit higher this time around due to the 'SSW' event. 

That's a very warm Europe for mid February @186:

Shockingly bad output for cold fans its virtually impossible to be optimistic this morning.  A truly crap winter made worse by the failure of some decent background signals that gave us all more hope than usual.  Next week will feel Spring like in any Sun 15c/16c on the cards next weekend.

ECM ENS uppers looking impressively warm. I use the word advisedly because the values shown wouldn't be too shabby in the summer!  

PS: I know it doesn't necessarily translate to glorious spring at the surface, but equally I think we can possibly rule out Valentine's Day snow this year. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london

GFS ens say 10c, maybe 11c in London, with coolish nights that'll probably mean rural ground frost in favoured spots. ECM ens have a maximum on all members of 12.4c for next Saturday based on last nights run (6.7c ens mean), which synoptically appears very similar to this morning so wouldn't have thought temps would widely differ

There's still a FI signal for retrogression of the HP to Greenland, along with a signal for it to hang around to the South or South West. To me this suggests, as has been the case for a while now, that the longer term options are quite finely balanced between a colder or milder regime.

So far this winter we've not got lucky and tipped in to a properly cold regime, although we did get 2 weeks of chilly and cold weather which brought significant if transient snow to some (kind of what an objective view of the charts suggested would happen). It's not been great this year but in terms of falling and lying snow IMBY it's been alright.

GFS has 14c in NW England next Sunday you can normally add a couple of degrees to that for the out right UK max temp. ECM is also poor at max temps. Both going for a max of 10c today probably means somewhere will get to 13c today. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&time=207&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Another Easterly carrot snatched away by the looks of things. More energy pulsing out of the US scuppers the recent retrogression signal.
Still a useful week if you work outdoors and dare I say ‘Springlike’ by next weekend. Of course we’ve seen cold spells develop after later winter mild so whilst time remains I’ll keep looking for colder options.

edit: ECM is promising late on but if I’d had a pound and all that.