Model Output Discussion 30/01/19 11:34 >>>>· Page 21

RobN
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 17:56:06

#501

Still a huge scatter in the GEFS after T96 following the surge of heights...

Diagramme GEFS

Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

DEW
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 17:56:13

#502

Also the feature this weekend is interesting.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Met Eireann has christened the storm Eric, so that will excite some on here

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

07 February 2019 17:57:42

#503

Met Eireann has christened the storm Eric, so that will excite some on here

Originally Posted by: DEW

I thought it was Erik?

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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DEW
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:03:11

#504

I thought it was Erik?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

That's what comes of listening to radio. Never mind, it can have its name changed from Erik to Eric as it crosses the Irish Sea.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

07 February 2019 18:03:40

#505

That's what comes of listening to radio. Never mind, it can have its name changed from Erik to Eric as it crosses the Irish Sea.

Originally Posted by: DEW

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Whether Idle
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:19:02

#506

That's what comes of listening to radio. Never mind, it can have its name changed from Erik to Eric as it crosses the Irish Sea.

Originally Posted by: DEW

Meanwhile, away from the Idle banter, the UKMO settles for calm and seasonal HP for next week:

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Hippydave
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:20:17

#507

GFS ens are showing a fairly blocked deep FI, with a reasonable number of members getting HP in to interesting areas.

It's a shame on most of them there's a lack of cold air to tap in to but I guess encouraging for one last chase before spring hits

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

moomin75
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:21:24

#508

GFS ens are showing a fairly blocked deep FI, with a reasonable number of members getting HP in to interesting areas.

It's a shame on most of them there's a lack of cold air to tap in to but I guess encouraging for one last chase before spring hits

Originally Posted by: Hippydave

Give it up and embrace spring. This Winter is dead. 😊😊☀️☀️☀️🌡🌡🌡

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:25:50

#509

Give it up and embrace spring. This Winter is dead. 😊😊☀️☀️☀️🌡🌡🌡

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Classic. possibly some other model watchers will agree with your premature interpretation

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Downpour
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:26:57

#510

Met Eireann has christened the storm Eric, so that will excite some on here

Originally Posted by: DEW

Not me I'm afraid

Chingford

London E4

147ft

RobN
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:28:27

#511

Give it up and embrace spring. This Winter is dead. 😊😊☀️☀️☀️🌡🌡🌡

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Keep it up! The more WIO posts we get in here then the greater chance of a frigid end to February

Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:37:43

#512

Meanwhile, the ECM goes for an increasingly chilly and settled end to the next working week in England. Im enjoying the subtle variations of the output as it oscillates around a solution.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:45:24

#513

Meanwhile, the ECM goes for an increasingly chilly and settled end to the next working week in England. Im enjoying the subtle variations of the output as it oscillates around a solution.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

JFF - the GFS 12Z CONTROL

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSC00EU12_384_2.png

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

SJV
Guest

07 February 2019 18:51:14

#514

Classic. possibly some other model watchers will agree with your premature interpretation

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

I'm happy for the Moomster to keep his WIO posts going. The more he posts about it the more chilly the output seems to look

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

07 February 2019 18:51:52

#515

ECM12z managing to get some very mild uppers into the mix late next week.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:54:29

#516

Indeed, but unfortunately I suspect that it would translate into cool grey gloom at surface levels.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

Hippydave
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 18:55:12

#517

ECM12z managing to get some very mild uppers into the mix late next week.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

It might even manage to get day time surface temps as low or even lower than the uppers, given low level continental feed

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 19:08:37

#518

I'm happy for the Moomster to keep his WIO posts going. The more he posts about it the more chilly the output seems to look

Originally Posted by: SJV

Ok so tell me the following? WHat does WIO stand for and WAA?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 19:12:42

#519

CMA goes for a colder option on its 12z offering - this for day 8:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

ballamar
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 19:35:30

#520

Ok so tell me the following? WHat does WIO stand for and WAA?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83

ur joking!!

winter is over

warm air advection

SJV
Guest

07 February 2019 20:09:52

#521

ur joking!!

winter is over

warm air advection

Originally Posted by: ballamar

I thought WAA was what people did when the models didn't show their preferred outcome?

Rob K
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 20:34:06

#522

There seems to be growing support across the models for a Scandi high setting up in due course. Unfortunately there is also growing consensus that this will only happen once cold air has drained out of Europe and so any easterly would be less a Beast From the East, and more a Waft From Aloft.

I note GFSP is still keen on a snow event on Sunday though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

ballamar
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 21:17:59

#523

I thought WAA was what people did when the models didn't show their preferred outcome?

Originally Posted by: SJV

haha

Quantum
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 21:32:29

#524

Major upgrade on the ICON18Z and the first upgrade today.

So I'd expect to also see an upgrade on the GFS and GFSP.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

BJBlake
Advanced Member

07 February 2019 23:05:56

#525

Looked like a block was forming but it's anyone's guess, as there's no consistency

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL

The Weather Outlook