The Weather Outlook

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RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 February 2019 18:02:24

Suddenly a lot more scatter after 96h in the mid-range GEFS..

06Z

Diagramme GEFS

 

12Z

Diagramme GEFS

Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

Whether Idle
06 February 2019 18:30:31

CMA and ECM on a similar "ridgy" page at 144:

CMA then ECM:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
fairweather
06 February 2019 18:37:51

 

 The feeling from some experts in this field is that the Greeny high will eventually establish itself and the likelyhood of a backloaded winter (which some believe, is starting to become the norm) will evolve quite rapidly around late Feb, early March.

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

I'm a big fan of experts in most fields but I'm not sure they exist in the world of SSWs.  Crikey, we've gone from January, till wait for February and now March........ or will it be April !

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
06 February 2019 18:39:44

The main interest is the stormy weather in the next few days. It has popped up at relatively short notice but I'm surprised there isn't more discussion.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Whether Idle
06 February 2019 18:43:31

ECM day 8:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
nsrobins
06 February 2019 18:47:36
Consecutive ECM runs teasing with Scandy height rises. The fat lady was called to the wings, but maybe has now been told to return to the dressing room?
Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Arcus
06 February 2019 18:49:36
Yes, I mentioned last night that the trends were quite interesting in the mid to longer term - I see no reason after the 12zs to abandon that interest for now.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

David M Porter
06 February 2019 18:50:10

Hmmm, an interesting ECM 12z op runs thus far.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

doctormog
06 February 2019 18:51:17

Hmmm, an interesting ECM 12z op runs thus far.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Roll on spring. 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Whether Idle
06 February 2019 18:52:02

Full blown easterly at day 9on ECM op , would be v cold with small area of -10s onto east coast.

 

Unlikely to verify, and a far cry from last year, but shows what is possible.

and SLP:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Karl Guille
06 February 2019 18:56:10

ECM 12z better positioned for most of the UK.

St. Sampson

Guernsey

doctormog
06 February 2019 19:01:38
Nice if you like chilly, gloom and drizzle. Really not cold enough for anything of interest unless things intensify but I guess it is a trend worth watching. Of more interest as Brian says is the weather over the next two or three days with some seriously strong winds and heavy rain (not nice but definitely of interest).
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

tallyho_83
06 February 2019 19:02:22

 

Roll on spring. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Had enough of winter?

Unusual how there is a 'H' and a 'L' in the chart at 240 when the center is 1045mb

Will this still be there in the 00z run?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Whether Idle
06 February 2019 19:04:59

Nice if you like chilly, gloom and drizzle. Really not cold enough for anything of interest unless things intensify but I guess it is a trend worth watching. Of more interest as Brian says is the weather over the next two or three days with some seriously strong winds and heavy rain (not nice but definitely of interest).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Disagree. A fascinating period of model watching is ensuing as the models struggle to determine the latitude at which the high pressure for next week will settle, something along the lines of the tonights JMA may be the blended solution:

 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
JACKO4EVER
06 February 2019 19:10:02

 

Disagree. A fascinating period of model watching is ensuing as the models struggle to determine the latitude at which the high pressure for next week will settle, something along the lines of the tonights JMA may be the blended solution:

 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

yes at times like this I always think a blended solution is the most likely outcome. Some very stormy weather over the next few days with a real risk to life I would have thought if conditions deteriorate further. Something to watch 

Brian Gaze
06 February 2019 19:15:42

 

yes at times like this I always think a blended solution is the most likely outcome. Some very stormy weather over the next few days with a real risk to life I would have thought if conditions deteriorate further. Something to watch 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Absolutely. Some people need to wake up and smell the coffee.  The potential for stormy conditions in the next few days has increased in the last 24 hours or so. It could be the most disruptive weather of the winter to date. Last week's snow was very localised.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Whether Idle
06 February 2019 19:17:34

 

Absolutely. Some people need to wake up and smell the coffee.  The potential for stormy conditions in the next few days has increased in the last 24 hours or so. It could be the most disruptive weather of the winter to date. Last week's snow was very localised.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yet again the case for a short term model thread hoves into view...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
marting
06 February 2019 19:18:13
Plenty of GEFS going in the same direction as the ECM and the ensembles have moved somewhat towards the high being better positioned for cold. Will the trend continue. ECM ensembles dipped colder today as well.

Interesting watch.

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Saint Snow
06 February 2019 19:20:44

 

Disagree. A fascinating period of model watching is ensuing as the models struggle to determine the latitude at which the high pressure for next week will settle, something along the lines of the tonights JMA may be the blended solution:

 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

That looks awful

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Whether Idle
06 February 2019 19:21:36

Plenty of GEFS going in the same direction as the ECM and the ensembles have moved somewhat towards the high being better positioned for cold. Will the trend continue. ECM ensembles dipped colder today as well.
Interesting watch.
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 

Indeed it is Martin.  

Sadly, and somewhat predictably, a large quotient of our bretheren have burned themselves out somewhat.  Tends to be a pattern every winter I find.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
tallyho_83
06 February 2019 19:22:43

 

Absolutely. Some people need to wake up and smell the coffee.  The potential for stormy conditions in the next few days has increased in the last 24 hours or so. It could be the most disruptive weather of the winter to date. Last week's snow was very localised.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

After all this rain we really could do with some dry weather...

 

But GFS say's NO!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Quantum
06 February 2019 19:53:10

Yeh scandi highs are very overrated.

But I'd rather hope for a scandi high atm where there seems to be a slight chance of that happening than a Greenland high which there is no indication of!

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Chiltern Blizzard
06 February 2019 19:58:43

Suddenly a lot more scatter after 96h in the mid-range GEFS..

06Z

Diagramme GEFS

 

12Z

Diagramme GEFS

Originally Posted by: RobN 

I’m just imagining the wailing and gnashing of teeth if the opposite had happenned, and a set of ensemble members which had unanimously shown a cold pulse a week or so out then “downgraded” to that extent on the following run!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
marting
06 February 2019 19:59:43
Well the ECM ensembles show the block in the right place post 168 - so still out in FI but signs growing of a block in a reasonable place

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

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