There's still a gap there with Bishop's Stortford's name in it lol. But definitely one to watch.

Currently no sign of any snow risk on the Met Office forecasts for the weekend, they are going for quite a mild picture.

Well they had a bit of a mare last week with the snow . To be fair all the models did aswell. Hopefully the Para is onto something .

Please, no more cold rain or marginal slop!

Chris F on Twitter saying next few weeks looking mild.......

First up again is the Icon. I wonder if we will see any improvement on the 06z run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_87_1.png 

Some definite attempts to form a scandi high on the 12Z. NAVGEM actually gets there.

JMA has the pick of FI charts tonight.  day 8 here. -8s into Peterhead.

though NAGEM may be better:

Anyone watching the ECM Ens recently will have noted the interesting changes in the mid term.

yes and in the bad old days of checking the HP in Berne this place would have been buzzing 

Those were the days of the Bartlett High. There's no evidence of that pattern this winter.

Glad someone said it. One day, hopefully soon, we'll experience a winter like they have across the pond. Surely the law of averages has to be in our favour at some point!

I'll keep looking and searching like I did last year, at least until it becomes pointless to do so.

When you get to mid-February and there's been a normal winter so far, with a couple of cold weeks, the milder variant is quite welcome, IMO.

True, but that period and SWZephyr only preceded the cold winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 by a couple of years......

Well the colder blip is colder than was expected in what was going to be part of a bigger milder spell and it only took about three days to become so. I guess after that we have to now accept a mild week but there is still two more (almost,but shrinking fast) weeks of February left. I have resigned myself to the fact that this winter will not however be remembered for any long or severe cold spells. Not quite a winter's over post and I might as well wait till the end of February now and do it properly.

CMC12z animation showing the precipitation rate and snow aggregate for the next 10 days. As usual there aren't too many less snowy locations at the same latitude as the UK https://t.co/AHhBhiVSby pic.twitter.com/a8DEHSYfjd

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) February 5, 2019

40% of the GFS purtabations show a cold outcome in FI, but the scatter of scenarios is as manic as ever.  However the jet scenarios seem to be as unpredictable beyond 120 hours, so it's no wonder.  The SW event  seem to expand the scatter as the models struggled to get to grips with it...but not faring better now frankly.

ECMWF is hinting at a block happening earlier than the GFS.

i am getting interested. 1978' late feb blizzards in the SW - But I had 2" in Sussex then & was most grateful. The beast proved it's never too late until Mid April at least!!

of course early March is the latest I've seen lasting snow in lowland uk in the south.

Last March,we had 2 heavy snowfalls in March in Gloucestershire and Worcestershire.Right at the start of the month and the middle of the month.Most snow I have ever seen lying on the ground in March.Probably wont see a march like that again in the next 20 years at least.I remember several years ago in mid April,it snowed around dawn,with the biggest snowflakes I have ever seen,some as big as an old 50p coin.Didnt settle for very long though,as it was too wet.

What with these uppers?

This winter is actually very similar so far to that of 2012/13 except December is milder this year. but in terms of the SSW it's fairly similar to the weather pattern we had in Jan 2013. SSW occurred early Jan 2013 and we had cold weather around the 3rd week of Jan 2013 and Feb 2013 was milder for a time with an increase in westerlies and I remember some short lived northerlies with the HP trying to move northwards but kept of failing until end of Feb 2013 when it became drier and heights rose to our north and then the real cold with HLBing came in March 2013 and that lasted right through until early April. Where as this Jan 2019 we have had the SSW & split of PV at a similar time to that of during the winter of 2012/13 (give or take a few days) and we have had some cold weather in 3rd and 4th week of Jan 2019! Not identical of course but similar to that of Jan 2013 because if I rightly remember the cold and snow we got in Jan 2013 was not cause by much in the way of HLB. 

Notice back in Jan 2013 we had southerly tracking lows!?

After a battle we never really got exceptionally cold in Jan 2013 and after a battle Jan 2013 ended mild and wet with long fetched south westerly wind which is what we are and will be experiencing more of soon and a strengthened Azores high and LP over Greenland:

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Jan 2019:

Seeing as the weather pattern has been similar to that of Jan 2013 - could we see a repeat of March 2013? i.e blocking never really getting going until end of Feb and March comes the bitterly cold easterly? It does look unlikely but never know!? just trying to be optimistic is such dire times weather wise and politically! 

Fire up the blowtorch? 2m temperatures approaching 20C on a few runs!  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

In the shorter term the risk of snow this weekend has increased in parts of the UK.

Or bring in the chill?  Just about every scenario possible on the output this morning.  Here is what the ECM offers in deep FI:

Indeed it's a chilly run altogether.  would keep the CET low. Personally not buying the GEFS mega warmth.