Both GFS and ECM toying with the idea of a Scanid high and an easterly in the far reaches of FI, but not any direct feed of very cold air which is still a long way east. The ensembles and snow rows (for the south, anyway) are nothing to get excited about, a big scatter but around the average. Just enough to keep weather watchers on their toes!

Agree, its more about "will it be mild and relatively frost free, or colder and chillier and frostier".

The tank is more or less empty though. Forcing mechanisms and recent history suggest an increased risk of a Beast From The East spell. Nonetheless the odds are still against a repeat of last year. 

Anticyclonic gloom is such a waste of weather IMO and at ten days such promise is little more than a hint.

I’ll settle for the brief -10°C t850s at the weekend with 500-1000hPa thicknesses in the mid to high 510s. At worst crisp bright and breezy.

To much hype over the SSW has really given it a bad name.  People do tend to forget that the effects of an SSW can take up to 8 weeks to propogate to the surface.  Then it isnt guaranteed to be in the right place to effect us, but it certainly increases our chance of somthing memorable if it does.  The feeling from some experts in this field is that the Greeny high will eventually establish itself and the likelyhood of a backloaded winter (which some believe, is starting to become the norm) will evolve quite rapidly around late Feb, early March.

WANTED: Large glowing yellow disc in the sky known as the Sun.

LAST SEEN: Roughly Jan 15th

REWARD for info leading to it's safe return: Considerable.

It's absolutely nothing like that winter here. We'd had 3 decent snowfalls by this time, one of them approaching 6" in depth.

Hasnt been like that here.  during the recent cold spell we had a few days of clear crisp blue sky.  also, you can tell the sun is getting stronger, as all my Solar lamps lining my drive have been brighter than ever.  

We've had plenty of sunny skies just up the road in High Wycombe!

I drove past Uxbridge on the M25/M40/A40 in bright sunshine on Saturday. Maybe you're on the nightshift?

While they are still showing hope remains

Stop Press: It's back! Lovely sunny day here unlike last night's forecast which was for cloud and rain.

yeh although we didnt get those depths by mine, this is a different winter.  2013 brought snowfall every Friday for about 5 or 6 weeks through Jan into Feb.  Was a very repetitive pattern.  Then about 2 or 3 weeks later we had a very nasty winter storm on the 23rd MArchwhich again missed us, but dumped about 60cms of snow over north wales and about 7inches over west kirby.

I flew out to Hong KJong 2 days later and was amazed to see it had rained in ellesmere port - so as much as we only saw 4cms - at least it was snow.

Reason i know this with the snowfalls, was I was working from home those fridays and was perfectly aligned to watch the events.

We never saw more than 6cms 😞 Alot of drifting meant the pavements became clear once the snow finished as the snow was mm's thick on those surfaces.

One to watch.

Could be a repeat of Boxing day 2015 for north wales through to Humber.

And in tandem is the risk of very strong winds on the south side of the potential low Sat night. ECM 06Z pushing 90mph winds across the south. On the radar this one for sure.

The establishment of a Scandi high is a possibility if WAA is significant enough. There are hints here and there for it with the ECM most notably interested .

Was it 2015 or 2014?

The key thing to getting snow on Sunday will be a closed circulation on that low.

Cold fronts are abysmal for snow potential. You only start to reliably get snow when the 850hpa temp gets to about -10C. However if a wave develops we end up with a warm front which are fantastic for snow potential. That and a region to the north of the wave with zero wind where evaporative cooling may take effect.

I'd put it this way. You have a very high chance of seeing snow if that secondary low develops its own circulation. You have a zero chance of seeing snow if it doesn't.

 (Saint was right - was 2014)

thats exactly what happened on boxing day, its rare we get the snow when it comes in from the west as it comes over the sea.  However on this occasion the air circlutation at our point of the feature meant it came in from the north east, which had been a balmy 3*c all day, where we had been about 5 or 6*c all day.  So as the front approached, we effectively changed air masses as the front sucked the air towards us... that and evap cooling tipped the balance.  This was a very rare occurance, and if I remember correctly only a corridor of about 30 mies from north to south saw it.  It was the only time we could say we were in the sweet spot.  But again - nothing over a few cms, as usual.

Here is a vid of that, notice how white it went in the 10 mins of filming.  We had about 6cms from this. but the DP must have risen sharply once it moved through, as within an hour everything was very very wet.  Seemed the air was soaking things that werent even snow covered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1Q8LO57uJo 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_1.png 

Will prob be flattened quickly

Thing about the scandi high formation is its a positive feedback loop.

WAA -> Amplification -> WAA -> Amplification and so on.

Slightly more WAA can result in alot more amplification.

The corollory to this is that slightly less WAA can kill it stone dead.

Wow. That level of amplification is a game changer.

ARPEGE12Z continued would generate a scandi high and keep the cold.

GFS Para looks interesting for the south and south east Sunday afternoon/evening? ALso the 528 line clears the country if this comes off: