People say the same thing about warm springs, yet 2018 proved beyond all doubt that very warm weather in spring doesn’t mean a poor summer.

Don't you guys say if the US goes mild we could possibly go very cold because there temps are quickly on the rise at the moment, models could change here suddenly like they have done all winter. Shoot me if you want too.

Looking at the upper and lower wind profile for the next 7 days, I would say looks like being a few good days for lenticular (or "stacked") cloud formations to lee side of high ground over the UK.

oooft the stalwarts will be choking on their sunday medication! 😂

Proper Euro-slug on the horizon. The warmth is coming maybe a tad early - late Feb / early Mar would have been nice, after some more snow in the first 2 weeks of Feb, but some pleasant mildness is still to be welcomed (sorry).

GFS P has a SH again.

Blocking to the north potential low sinking in North Sea

One model but blocking drifting around and not a zonal whitewash

Yes - so different from the 00Z run @ 240

06z run: (latest).

But we all know what it's like and what usually happens when the GFS or ECM or any model shows an easterly? - By the next run it would have disappeared. Will. see,. John Hammond suggested there will be a few more easterlies in Feb as does Met Office but so far no easterly has developed this winter.

I think the GEFS are more positive than the snow % suggest.  Fewer spikes on the precip charts suggesting high pressure in FI, just need it suitably aligned for cold shot!

Pint of Bishops Finger and a rum chaser? 👍

Pert #13 - Old School Northerly 

Martin

A couple of differences of opinion around the 8th and the  11th. The biggest split occurs as you would expect later around the 15th, this seems to show the 2 camps mentioned in the extended forecasts by different organisations. As more data becomes available, so the decision as to where we're heading becomes clearer. In theory anyway!

Cold zonality is edged away by a milder and wetter pattern to mid February.

A few cold carrot danglers indicative of something easterly in far far FI. (where they've stayed all winter).

Where there’s life there’s hope, Steve.

I actually miss chasing virtual cold setups but in a few months I’ll be chasing for real again in the US and this frustrating winter will be long forgotten.

Unless I am misreading the ensembles, milder weather for 10 days, then uncertainty again with 5 or 6 much colder scenarios from about 14th.

So from 14th temperature spread of 20c. That means we enter a period again where the model cannot be confident what will happen or which direction the air over UK is coming from, so clearly a big temperature fall could happen (or it may not).

I am reluctant to use the more runs needed comment as it is in the hated winter phrases thread, but at the moment you could just as easily toss a coin to decide mild or cold after 14th Feb.

Going on this I'd say it looks more blocked as we reach mid Feb and onwards.. decrease in percipitation spikes 

The only question is where the block will be and for now I'm thinking more likely to be towards our south or southwest because of the milder 850's.  

Seen worse potential charts

As yet it’s just a case of watch and wait.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_1.png 

Small steps and not a massively strong high but could be a trend to building a height rise over Greenland

I had to laugh at the forecaster on today's Weather for the Week Ahead who said this week "would feel positively Springlike". Yes, if you can somehow avoid all the wind and rain there's going to be about! 

Nice in my patch!  

looking too far ahead 6 days could be a change with bigger impact