So GFS has gone from showing a Scandi High developing in FI in the 00z op this morning to indicating a Euro High in the 12z.

The volatility in the models goes on, it seems.

Indeed it goes very February 98 this run incredible warmth for all of Europe 

In reply to

and 

Wirral usually does very poor from wintry showers.  This week we have done better than we have in many year, probably our best snow totals since the north westerly of Christmas day 2003/4.  This week we got about an inch, despite areas say less than 10 miles away getting 5-10cms widely.

We never prosper from NW'erlys due to the temp of the sea, it usually results in rain/graupal, and snow well in land like beyond chester etc.

Easterlys at least give us a sense of what ever will fall from the sky will be snow.  That knda security.  

Sadly, I can't see any optimism in the output for the first half of February which is now getting in the sensible range. I would like to see some changes showing up for later in the month soon.

The GFS P is having a tease in FI

Something is cooking....almost literally. Some VERY mild runs are now appearing.

That’s Brian’s cooking being put in the freezer for later. 

We need a new acronym to bandy around for this: a SWW (Sudden Winter Wobbler)

My weather station recorded UV levels of 2 this week... which reminded me the sun is getting stronger if those long fetch SWerlys come to pass we could be enjoying a very early start to spring.

By Tuesday we'll be half-way to the Spring Equinox, which is a milestone of sorts.  As Brian has 'hinted' (cough..) there are some milder options around in GFS but nothing of note in the ECM op. Typical late winter weather with all options still possible in the next couple of weeks, except severe cold which seems improbable.

Yes, some less cold weather would be nice for a while.

But I think it's been a decent winter so far (still a month to go), once you adjust for the raised expectations caused by the long range predictions.

Indeed almost all the colder options especially the easterlies have been purged with a ruthlessness which would make Stalin envious.

Time to hunker down in the cellar and wait for the counter revolution.

That's high for the time of year, even in Larry's NOTW. Give it a tap, Russ?

I think that is a little premature plenty of time for winter to bite back and we still have march too....i think winter might just have a sting in its tail this year.

They always chop and change guve it a few days and they will be astonishingly cold .

Absolutely! Especially if you like lots of cloud, no sun and mild weather! Although I have now accepted that a really boring winter with no gales, storms, snow (here) etc. is much easier to get through at my age and I can sit indoors and read through past diaries and photos of blizzards and 10 feet snow drifts and sledging when I could still get back up the hill 

Of course other winters have been available elsewhere!

Yes crazy mild with only several ensembles going to to -5c @ 850 hpa and none going down to -10c @850hpa! But now we have the 18z and it's ensembles and in FI we see a few go to and even below -10c @850hpa! But there is so much scatter. Almost a 20' degree range from the mildest ensemble member to the coldest.

The potential for some notable mildness is growing. Astonishing to be talking about temperatures of -15C tonight in the Scottish glens and at the same time to see an outlier bringing 850s of close to +15C by mid month in the south. Wow!