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Would be a catastrophic fail for the ECM 46dayer if the mildness wins out. Zero sign of the Greenland heights it was showing for weeks as well.
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
The GFS looks toasty in the latter stages and is definitely looking like another complete fail for ECM46.
100m ASL
Well a real swing to some very mild output over the last few days, it’s hard to see where any meaningful cold spell will come from now. I’m waiting for this to be highlighted in the MetO long range forecast- it just can’t be ignored now.
Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER
Yes it looks like Atlantic train is coming. The question is for how long? Mild, windy and wet for a couple of weeks maybe? Yuk!
The potential for some notable mildness is growing. Astonishing to be talking about temperatures of -15C tonight in the Scottish glens and at the same time to see an outlier bringing 850s of close to +15C by mid month in the south. Wow!
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
Good , i am hoping for an early Spring.
Looks like the trend for temperatures recovering to average (or indeed potential above in places) in the coming week is continuing. Beyond then further in FI there’s not much agreement on pattern but nothing overtly cold on display.Barring big changes through the day I think it is probably safe to say with high confidence that things will be generally average to (in some places at least) mild by the end of the coming 5-7 day period. Beyond then as ever watch for trends and at the minute there are not clear ones in terms of synoptics, unless you count a lack of deep cold!
Current conditions (personal WS)
Stunning chart for the time of year 1998 revisited
Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320
Yes, for how long is the all important question. It does now look odds-on for a period of milder weather as we go towards mid-month, but beyond that, who knows.
I see there have been comparisons made between some model runs for a couple of weeks' time and mid- Feb 1998. While the middle of that February was indeed notably mild, it was a rather different story, in my area at least, come the end of that month. This is why, IMHO, it would be unwise for any of us to assume at this stage that even assuming it does turn notably mild around mid-month, it will still be like that come the month's end.
If there is one thing that the theme of the general output throughout this season should have made clear to us, it is that it would be unwise to look at charts too far ahead and assume that what is indicated is set in stone.
"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine
Originally Posted by: Gavin D
10 days away, what’s the reliability at that range?
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Originally Posted by: Deep Powder
with the sea temperatures at 10c that chart would give the SW misty murk and about 11c if lucky. However the bulk of England would do fine.
Overall the 06z GFS op is rather uninspiring, although maybe the chance for some very mild conditions in the south at times. Totally nondescript for much of the time for many though. We'll see what the ensembles and GFSP show for the outlook soon.
I thought it could get worse then I checked the Op run of GFS the chart from 228z is the same throughout the whole of the run! After a day or two of winter we are back to square one for at least 2 weeks. Just look at those long fetched SW winds blasting through western Europe, central and eastern Europe and into Russia. Plus we now have the HP where we don't want it - ie over central and southern Europe with is at odds with many if not all longer range output models that suggests low pressure there and high pressure to build over Iceland and Greenland!
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com
pert 13 is today's straw
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
A period of mild SW winds now likely to set in next week and you can’t ssy it hadn’t been well signalled (with the odd wobble from a scattering of OPs).
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
tbh, if it’s one to two weeks of mild Southwesterly's versus another two weeks of cold rain, I know which one I’d rather have! It’s been dismal for us SW Londoners this winter which is not surprising in these marginal setups......we live in hope for a nice Thames streamer......
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
That really is the 'final straw' is it? If the 18z runs continues as well as it's ensembles and other shorter range models continue mild then that straw that breaks the camels back!
Just a reminder What the CFSv2 went for February in term of Temp:
Also many longer range models are STILL going for blocking over Greenland.
Met Office seasonal Glosea 5 model Feb/March/April:
B.C.C:
ECMWF:
Originally Posted by: surbitonweather
Did London get lot's of snow last Thursday night into Friday and again last night?? or did it just not settle?
Much more reliable than if it was showing cold from the East or North.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
Why? Surely models are models, they just interpret the data that’s fed in at the start and then spew out charts (simplistic view I know, but they don’t have any bias etc.). No?
Perhaps waiting until the 2nd of March to draw a conclusion on February may be better than on the 2nd of February.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
Some parts in the North & West done OK but Central & South/South West London fared badly. DPs just too high but it was close as 20 miles away in Surrey got plastered! 😔😔
AFAIK the models get tweaked continuously in the light of experience. As SW influences predominate in our weather, the models have been more refined for this type of weather and thus more reliable
Chichester 12m asl
Again lot's of scatter on the 06z ensemble run: But the milder theme continues beyond middle of February.
Originally Posted by: DEW
Cool, thanks, makes sense 👍