Met Office Hadley     5.3c.    Anomaly   1.8c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                  5.10c   Anomaly    0.95c

Netweather               5.5c     Anomaly    1.31c

Bordon                     4.8c     Anomaly     -3.04c

Canvey Island           5.9c     Anomaly     0.25c

Cheadle Hulme          5.3c    Anomaly      -0.03c

Clevedon Weather      6.4c    Anomaly      -0.04c

Darwen                     5.6c    Anomaly      0.34c

Hexam                      5.0c    Anomaly      0.72c

Mount Sorrel             5.3c    Anomaly      0.59c

Forest Town Mansfield  5.5c  Anomaly  1.0c

Peasedown St John    6.8c    Anomaly     1.6c

Treviskey Redruth     7.2c    Anomaly    -0.68c.

Mean of my 10 stations   5.78c.  Anomaly  0.07c.     6 Year Average.             

  I don’t know either!  Good job you got a head start!  

Never mind, it’s just one month!   

First look at the CET tracker right out to the end of the month.

First thing to note is that I am expecting a very large month end downward adjustment. As of yesterday my CET mean was running a massive 0.43C below that of Hadley. So take the current 5.7C provisional figure from Hadley with a large pinch of salt. I make it 5.26C.

Cold all the way now until the end of the month. Current estimate for the final CET is 3.81C. But I suspect that is quite conservative and there is a good chance it will finish much lower than that. I would say probably something around 3.5C is the mostly likely scenario at the moment. I may have gone a little too low with my 3.2C prediction but I have a feeling I won't be too far away come the end of the month.

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Oh, how quickly things can change...

That was just 2 days ago, when we were drunk on 'stella' runs.

I suspect latest output would put us in the 4.2c-4.8c bracket.

I was watching Gavin P.'s video's today on YouTube and on the first of today's two videos (the other one was tonight's snow watch video), he indicated that this month's CET would finish up somewhere between 3.0°C and 3.9°C (presumably, allowing for that end of month correction).

Given that he is also a member of this forum, it's a shame that he isn't in this competition as it would have been interesting to see what he would have gone for if had, so that I could then compare that with what his view of this month in terms of the temperature would be like, as stated in his January forecast video.

I did used to enter the CET comp here but I found people were sometimes confusing my CET entry (which is just for fun) with my month ahead forecasts on my website.

Very often in the CET comp I might have taken a gamble and gone for a cold or hot month but in my GWV forecasts I tend to be much more conservative most of the time unless there's really good evidence for something extreme happening.

So I was aware there was a bit of confusion creeping in... So that's why I stopped entering the comp.

If I ever retire from GWV I'm sure I'll start entering the comp again as its a lot of fun and GW runs it amazingly well! 

 

I did used to enter the CET comp here but I found people were sometimes confusing my CET entry (which is just for fun) with my month ahead forecast's on my website.

Very often in the CET comp I might have taken a gamble and gone for a cold or hot month but in my GWV forecasts I tend to be much more conservative most of the time unless there's really good evidence for something extreme happening.

So I was aware there was a bit of confusion creeping in... So that's why I stopped entering the comp.

If I ever retire from GWV I'm sure I'll start again as its a lot of fun and GW runs it amazingly well!

I would not worry about people getting confused about your well thought-out, and  heartfelt predictions.

People would welcome a big name, such as yourself, being prepared to take the risk, and enter the fray, and put their well respected expertise to the test. 

Yourself, Neil, Steve Murr, Doctormog, to name but a few, are, amongst many others, who are notable absentees from this test of forecasting ability, considering the sagacity that is demonstrated on a weekly basis in the MO thread.

There is nothing to fear. Join us.

 

I would not worry about people getting confused about your well thought-out, and  heartfelt predictions.

People would welcome a big name, such as yourself, being prepared to take the risk, and enter the fray, and put their well respected expertise to the test. 

Yourself, Neil, Steve Murr, Doctormog, to name but a few, are, amongst many others, who are notable absentees from this test of forecasting ability, considering the sagacity that is demonstrated on a weekly basis in the MO thread.

There is nothing to fear. Join us.

That is certainly the case and on that note, it would be interesting to see what fireworks might occur if the likes of Richard from Aberdeen was ever to enter this competitions, given his famous (or infamous depending on your own point of view about that) rants which I often find to be a joy to read, even though these aren't usually confined to the moaning threads.

Met Office Hadley          5.2c.      Anomaly      1.7c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       4.95c     Anomaly       0.80c

Netweather                    5.41c     Anomaly       1.22c

Canvey Island                5.7c       Anomaly       0.05c

Forest Town Mansfield     5.4c       Anomaly       0.69c

Peasedown St John         6.8c       Anomaly       1.6c.

Mean of my 10     5.7c  Anomaly    -0.01c.     

January could be one of  those strange winter months where the drier, calmer periods under high pressure were milder than the wetter more unsettled periods under lower pressures.

It could be a month of two halves as well.

A milder, dry, largely anticyclonic first half followed by a colder more unsettled second half. 

 

 

Oh, how quickly things can change...

That was just 2 days ago, when we were drunk on 'stella' runs.

I suspect latest output would put us in the 4.2c-4.8c bracket.

Met Office Hadley        5.1c.       Anomaly     1.6c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                     4.80c      Anomaly     0.65c

Netweather                  5.27c      Anomaly     1.08c

Hexam                         4.6c       Anomaly      -0.32c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.3c      Anomaly      0.8c

Peasedown St John       6.7c      Anomaly    1.5c

Treviskey Redruth        6.9c  Anomaly   0.98c

mean of my 10     5.55c.   Anomaly   -0.16c.     

Met Office Hadley           5.0c.     Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       4.73c     Anomaly      0.57c

Netweather                    5.21c     Anomaly      1.02c

Forest Town Mansfield     5.2c       Anomaly      0.7c

Peasedown St John         6.6c       Anomaly      1.4c

Treviskey                       6.8c        Anomaly     -1.08c

Mean Of My 10 watched stations    5.5c.  Anomaly   -0.19c.     

Met Office Hadley         4.9c.     Anomaly    1.3c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      4.55c    Anomaly    0.40c

Netweather                   5.08c    Anomaly    0.85c

Bordon                         4.2c      Anomaly     -3.64c

Hexam                         4.3c      Anomaly     0.02c

Forest Town Mansfield    4.9c     Anomaly      -0.3c

Peasedown St John        6.5c    Anomaly      1.3c

Treviskey Redruth          7.1c    Anomaly      -1.7c.

Mean of my 10 stations    5.21c.  Anomaly   -0.47c.       

A finishing number after corrections of 4.2 perhaps? Give or take 0.2c?

A finishing number after corrections of 4.2 perhaps? Give or take 0.2c?

Cue GW with his stats and projections!   

Well at the moment I am thinking the CET will finish just above 4C. Current projection is 4.11C.

At present my CET estimate is 0.45C below Hadley. Up to yesterday Hadley was 4.88C. My estimate was 4.43C.

Today the CET came in at exactly 0.0C so the coldest day of the winter so far. 

This means the CET is now standing at 4.24C.

The CET continues to fall tomorrow but then lifts up as we go through the weekend before falling back slightly in the final few days of the month. 

The above estimate is probably going to be a bit too high so my best guess at the moment is that the CET will finish very close to 4C. So only a fraction below average.

If we split the month in half we see the following:

1-16 Jan 5.26C (+0.87C)

17-31 Jan 2.89C (-1.60C)

So a big difference there. It does look like a winter of two halves. First half very mild and second half probably very cold, especially if northern blocking sets up in February.

 Thanks GW!  I’d never argue with your projections.  I know they’re based on output and subject to change but they’re always totally unbiased!  

Hmmm!  I think it will be 3. something.  It’s probably 4.7c now with corrections and we have over a week left.  

Cue GW with his stats and projections!   

It seems that January is looking like a month of two halves. 

As for bias, it seems to me that bias is reserved for the MO thread, whereas this thread is just about predictions and is thankfully relatively bias free.

 

It seems that January is looking like a month of two halves. 

As for bias, it seems to me that bias is reserved for the MO thread, whereas this thread is just about predictions and is thankfully relatively bias free.

Met Office Hadley            4.7c.    Anomaly  1.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                         4.38c   Anomaly  0.22c

Netweather                      4.87c   Anomaly  0.68c

Bordon                            4.0c     Anomaly  -3.84c

Canvey Island                  5.0c     Anomaly  -0.65c

Cheadle Hulme                 4.8c    Anomaly   -0.85c

Clevedon Weather             6.1c     Anomaly   -0.48c

Darwen                            5.1c     Anomaly   -0.16c

Hexam                             4.2c     Anomaly   -0.08c

Mount Sorrel                    4.6c     Anomaly    -0.11c

Forest Town Mansfield       4.9c     Anomaly    -0.3c

Peasedown St John           6.3c     Anomaly    1.1c

Treviskey                         7.2c     Anomaly    -0.68c    

Mean of my 10 watched stations  5.22c Anomaly -0.49c.   6 Year Average.

  Spot on!  And GW supports your suggestion of a finish between 4 and 4.2c. 

I know one thing - I'm going for a much lower figure for February.