This is proving to be the most frustrating winter ever - the nearly winter. What has gone wrong? After all, there was a major SSW.
Bad luck! The PV was split but we have been exceedingly unlucky in that a potent chunk of the vortex ended up in the worst possible place for the UK - NE Canada - this is spitting out its cold into the north Atlantic firing up shortwaves which are destroying any chances of HLB blocking becoming established over Greenland and Iceland. Our winter stays at day ten in the charts, since low res is failing to pick up these nasty little spoiler lows. Without that Canada vortex, I am pretty sure some HLB would have become established by now.
So here is the question - why does the vortex so like the worst possible region for UK winter? Why doesn't it prefer to set up home in Aleutia or Siberia? It is because of the vortex of doom setting up across the Pond that we lose out, even when other things being equal, we have a favourable setup.
Instead of the northern blocking we need, instead we end up with NW -> SE flow which keeps things cool and no doubt is nice for northern upland regions, but is complete pants for where the majority of the population of UK and Ireland live.