Agreed, but it appears that there has been no progress in NWP reliability over the last decade or more. When it comes to forecasting synoptics which differ from the regular pattern more than four or five days ahead, the models are as inconsistent and unreliable as they have always been, regardless of the computing power and sophisticated algorithms thrown at the problem..
I've suggested this before, but what if the model output was only released out to 5 days? I think this would make a lot of sense, as anything after can only be truly interpreted by professional meteorologists. True, they are a lot of fun to look at, but also mentally draining during peak winter season. We often await the next run before the current one is even finished! Maybe sometimes, less is more. Model output, pretty much like anything else in modern society, has become product that is easily disposed of. Anyone remember yesterday's 06z run? Most probably not, but I guarantee that most of us were awaiting with bated breath before it rolled out!
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg "You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022